Huge Gain for Begich in Alaska Vote Counting

by: tremayne

Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 17:12


There's an update in the vote counting for the Alaska Senate race and it's great news for Mark Begich:

Begich: 146,286

Stevens: 143,912

The difference is now 2,374 votes. That's up from 1,022 I believe, and good for a percentage lead of 0.77%. The number of votes remaining to be counted is small which makes it unlikely Stevens can close the gap.

tremayne :: Huge Gain for Begich in Alaska Vote Counting

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Huge Gain for Begich in Alaska Vote Counting | 19 comments
And that would avoid the recount (4.00 / 1)
The threshold, where Stevens (or 10 voters) can ask for a recount, would be 0.5% - when all votes are finally counted, that would correspond to about 1,600 votes.

(The Anchorage Daily News expects a total of about 320,000 votes, which suggests there are about 30,000 votes left to be counted.)

i think Stevens (4.00 / 1)
gets a recount anyway he just has to pay a fee to do it instead of the state paying for all of it. But the bigger the final margin the less likely he will be to bother.
[ Parent ]
Is that accurate (0.00 / 0)
I read on 538 that the process requires that even a recount at a candidate's discretion must have votes within a certain percentage?
[ Parent ]
Not in Alaska, apparently (0.00 / 0)
Just googled this, and found Ballotpedia, a site that deals with all things election. Nothing in their story about a maximum threshold for a demanded recount in Alaska:
http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/in...

And the other hits don't mention this, either. Looks like Alaska desn't have such a provision. This doesn't seem to be uncommon, a quick glance showed that no state starting with "A" has an upper limit. Florida, on the other hand, does have such limits, but they are ridiculously low, at 0.25% and 0.5% maximum. Not exactly in the best interest of vote integrity, these margins.

[ Parent ]
If Stevens can't afford to pay (4.00 / 2)
without selling his free amenities, I'm sure Palin would be glad to contribute what she saved by making rape victims pay for their own exams. For Stevens this is just an ego thing -- he knows he's done in the Senate, one way or another. For Palin, this is her bridge to somewhere on the Senate floor.
[ Parent ]
Ack, I forget the 3rd party votes (0.00 / 0)
which total nearly 20k,

So there may be 10k votes left to be counted.

[ Parent ]
I guess it is all relative (0.00 / 0)
The article says "votes remaining to be counted is small".    This post says about 30,000 votes are left to be counted.    That is almost 10% and that is not small.  

The key question is where are these 30,000 votes coming from.   If they are coming from Begich friendly districts it is time to stick a fork in it.  

[ Parent ]
see above (0.00 / 0)
I think the number of remaining ballots to count is around 10-15 thousand depending on how many rejected as invalid. If the number is, say, 12,000 then Stevens would have to win them something like 7,200 to 4,800 to prevail. That's 60% which is a tall order. Plus earlier reporting said most of the ballots to be counted today and yesterday were from Begich areas.
[ Parent ]
Remaining votes (0.00 / 0)
There were 25 house districts left with votes to be counted (according to the SOS spreadsheet here http://www.elections.alaska.go... ).  Of these, 15 have favored Begich and 10 have favored Stevens according to the district breakdown published here http://media.adn.com/smedia/20...  

Given the percentages, you could see a bit of tightening from the remaining districts, but I don't see it being enough to bring it back within the .5% recount threshold.  

Stevens is done.

[ Parent ]
Are votes Coming In Lke This Typical For Alaska Or... (0.00 / 0)
should I put on my conspiracy hat.
They have trouble counting up there it seems... (0.00 / 0)
...you know that great Alaskan education system that gave us Sarah Palin on full display here...  math is hard!

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
[ Parent ]
the slowness, I think, is typical. (0.00 / 0)
What's not typical is:

1. The closeness of the race
2. The number of absentee votes. Like many other states, absentee voting has become a form of voting early and has been actively pushed by Democrats this year.

[ Parent ]
I gather they'll accept absentee votes until tomorrow (0.00 / 0)
as long as they were postmarked by election day. It's similar to Washington state in that way.
[ Parent ]
Today's outstanding votes (0.00 / 0)
According to adn.com (http://www.adn.com/elections/story/593530.html ), the remaining approximately 8000 votes are all absentee from the Anchorage area.  If this is correct and the trends so far hold up, then you could expect Begich's lead to grow by 200 - 300 more votes by the end of the day.  
I guess that someone can't see the senate from her house (0.00 / 0)
Anymore...

They probably don't serve mooseburgers there anyway.

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton

Look out Lisa Murkowski (0.00 / 0)
Sarah Palin will be gunning (perhaps literally) for your seat in 2010.    
3721 votes ahead now! (0.00 / 0)

Which is about 1.2% up on Stevens (0.00 / 0)
Begich 150728 47.76%
Stevens 147004 46.58%
[ Parent ]
2500 left to count (0.00 / 0)
According to the Anchorage Daily News.  Both the Associated Press and the Anchorage Daily News have called this one for Begich.  Cue in Howard Cossell saying (over a losing fighter) " It's over.  It is over."  Ding.

At least Senate Republican don't have to agonize about whether to toss Ted from their caucus.  Similarly, the Senate won't have to vote on expelling Ted.  The voters of Alaska have relieved them of that task.

[ Parent ]
Huge Gain for Begich in Alaska Vote Counting | 19 comments
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