The main objections to my diary "Center-Left Nation: Congress Since WWII" seemed to be two-fold: first that I was only using a single data source. Second, more significantly, that I was making an argument that ignored the racism of the Southern Dems. My answers were that (1) You only need one data source to disprove a thesis ("center-right nation"), and advance (not prove) another ("center-left nation"); (2) It was still true in the aggregate, as shown, for example, by the Congressional DW-Nominate scores.
I stand by those answers, but of course, they don't need to be the last word. And, indeed, they shouldn't be the last word. Hence, a look at party ID since 1972, from the General Social Survey (GSS). It should be noted that the figures here--which include partisan leaners--are not as strikingly Democratic as those from Pew, which is also a very reputable pollster, and I have no explanation for the discrepancy. But GSS figures are available going much further back.
(GSS polls not taken every year, see tables below for exact dates.)
So, the Democrats have lost their crushing 2-1 advantage enjoyed in the early 70s, but still have maintained an edge in every GSS poll since that time. And as for arguments about Southern racist Dems, well, that's what God made regional crosstabs for...
As it turns out, though there are clear regional differences, they are generally less striking than the similarities. And though we don't have figures from the '40s, '50s and '60s, the figures from 1972 on show that Democratic majorities were never solely dependent on Southern voters during this time, even when those voters were still overwhelmingly registered as Democrats.
First up, in the Northeast--New England plus the Mid-Atlantic states--Republicans briefly outnumbered Democrats in 1992, but the Democratic advantage has been up around 1970s levels for a while now.
Second, in the South, the GOP's new stronghold--from the Southern Atlantic seaboard to Texas and Oaklahoma--they came close to surpassing the Democrats in 1994, but lost ground after that, with a post-9/11 resurgence in 2002.
Third, in the Midwest--from Rustbelt Ohio to the Great Plains--the Republicans pulled ahead of the Democrats in the early 1990s, but have since fallen behind again.
Fourth, in the West--Mountain and Coastal--Republicans pulled ahead during Reagan's second term, but fell behind again under Clinton--an early profile of GOP gains, followed by losses, than in any other region.
Summary
Again, this is not presented as definitive proof that America is center-left, but it is proof that we are not center-right on the level of partisan politics, which is the level this debate is all about. The Versailles rhetoric is out of touch with reality, once again.
