Do Any Progressives Actually Know How to Spend $700 Billion?

by: Matt Stoller

Thu Dec 04, 2008 at 17:17


One interesting problem progressives are confronting right now is that basic lack of expertise in spending money.  Let's take broadband, though this could apply to any arena - the TARP fund, the automakers, infrastructure, etc.  Right now, AT&T is cutting capital spending, which means that the goal of universal broadband recently lauded by a broad coalition is actually being set back.  Realistically, the government is the only entity that is going to spend to build out broadband in a severe downturn, and indeed, broadband is one of the best ways to generate new economic growth.  

For instance, the Brookings Institution estimated recently that each percentage increase in broadband deployment would result in nearly 300,000 jobs each year.  These are good jobs, jobs that don't emit much carbon, and that can be situated in rural areas and close to clean power sources (where Google's new server farms are located).  Moreover, much of the problem with our broadband infrastructure is that 'broadband' speeds are often inadequate, a hundred times slower than in Korea or Japan.  With the lack of speed, the excessive cost, and the lack of competition in the market, a good percentage of the country choose not to buy broadband because the options don't make sense.  This is bad for all sorts of reasons, and the fix - lots of people making and stringing fiber and inventing new machines and services to take advantage of all of it - is exactly what our economy needs.

The cost estimates I've heard to get the US to Japanese world-class standards are between $100-$300 billion, and now is the time for that buildout to happen.  Some of that can come from the Universal Service Fund, the rest can be appropriated from Congress.  Now the problem is that the traditional model of doing stuff with government money looks a lot like the TARP model, which is really just Pentagon-style subsidization of private well-connected interests (check out the fight over mandating universal purchase of private health insurance for a good example).  And that doesn't really build very good broadband, and it puts that built broadband in the hands of powerful companies.  The government can't just subsidize AT&T, since they will just take the money and reduce investment elsewhere.  That won't stimulate the economy or create jobs or increase broadband penetration.

And this is where Mike Lux's warnings about the culture of caution kicks in.  Right now, it's standard DC procedure to think incrementally, like reapportioning USF monies, rather than boldly, like turning the postal service into a broadband delivery vehicle or calling this an Eisenhower moment for building out an entirely new system for communications.  It's time to get creative, and ask for a whole lot.  One question is that generations of policy-makers have been trained on incrementalism and warding off the worst of conservative policies while saving what remains of the 1930s liberal order - does the knowledge of implementing large and transformative progressive institutional models through government even exist anywhere?

Matt Stoller :: Do Any Progressives Actually Know How to Spend $700 Billion?

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Good question. (0.00 / 0)
I hope so, because we need to spend a lot:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University professor who was an adviser to Republican presidential candidate John McCain, and Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize winner who served in President Bill Clinton's White House, are among those who say President- elect Barack Obama should push for a package of that size.

"They need a stimulus of $500-to-$600 billion a year for at least two years to counter what is going to be a collapse in consumption," said Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.

snip

"Congress should think in terms of $900 billion in 2009, with possibly more in 2010," said James Galbraith, a self-styled liberal economics professor at the University of Texas in Austin who has talked with the Obama transition team about the issue. "I may be higher than they are at this point," he said, "but things are evolving."



In my opinion that is already outdated (0.00 / 0)
With some regulation changes you could replace one of the television channels with free broadband for everyone in my opinion.

http://transgendermom.blogspot....

Fox"news" perhaps? (0.00 / 0)
Seriously, transgenmom, how about some details?

[ Parent ]
Basically its the same as the whitespace (0.00 / 0)
We really should be moving towards a wireless solution in my opinion.  It would be much better and cheaper.

http://transgendermom.blogspot....

[ Parent ]
I DO Think People Know How To Spend The Money (4.00 / 2)
I just don't think they're in the Versailles policy pipeline.

But there are plenty of people at the state and local level, as well as in activist communities, who have the vision, plans, and a modicum of experience that could very well combine to answer your question in the affirmative.

But, by all means, keep screaming bloody murder, because it's entirely called for.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


green power (4.00 / 1)
I think that the mainstream rhetoric about a green power revolution has not been that incrementalist in recent months. Maybe Al Gore's biggest contribution to this issue might have been his speech about energy independence in 10 years, which was ridiculed at the time, but I feel has been taken more and more seriously since then. Maybe his timing was actually spot on.
The heartening aspect to this was that a leader who asked for a revolutionary approach actually may have moved the goalposts for his issue.  

George Soros Also Said Much The Same (4.00 / 1)
On Bill Moyers Journal a few months back.  I blogged about it at the time.

He said that the US consumer as the engine of the world economy was finished (not that US consumers were going away, but they wouldn't be the central driving force) and the new engine would have to be investment in green energy--a sort of analogy to WWII, that wouldn't generate a lot of consumer goodies, but would do us all a lot of good in the long run.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
there are many who know how to spend the money (4.00 / 1)
the real problem is corporate lobbyists, insiders blocking every single idea, policy based on real statistical analysis, focus on working America, middle class as well as strategic direction in the US national interest....

well, they might get a hearing and get to testify even on the hill but in terms of getting their recommendations passed into law or even partly considered?  

Hell no, just do whatever corporate lobbyists want and very obvious, absurdly obviously only certain lobbyists control Congress.

There were so many experts who really knew how to do the financial sector bail out and yes they received hearings and assuredly got on cable news and that's about it!

Even something as simply as increasing stock transaction fees to pay for it, which Rep. Peter Defazio was recommending were completely ignored.  

It just so friggin' stuck on stupid I'd like to scream, what can I say and it's all about greasin' the friend of my buddy who happens to be high up in government or the administration, it's all about greasin' my chum's wheels.

Side note, Ya gotta read this AIG doubles their salaries.  AIG has already received $152.5 billion dollars.  Unbelievable.  

NoSlaves.com  


The Economic Populist


Sounds good, but... (0.00 / 0)
is the tech ready for such a huge government commitment? There doesn't seem to be much consensus on whether cheap/free universal Net access would be brought about by stringing fiber, wimax, satellite, broadcast channels, or something else. I have to wonder whether a much more modest research investment wouldn't be more practical at this point.

OTOH a massive transportation buildout including mass transit and high-speed rail would address the energy/environment crises, provide tons of jobs, hasten the transition from the petro economy, and utilize the facilities and skills of the US industrial base.


to respond to a few of your points (4.00 / 1)
One way to approach this carefully and smartly is to start by providing federal support for pilot "community broadband" projects that would involve extensive research and evaluation, so as to provide valuable models for future and broader-scale projects.  These could be mobilized very quickly (I'm currently working on a proposal along these lines).

Another point is that deploying broadband networks to an entire city is generally cheaper than building mass transit serving a few hubs in that city.  And, like mass transit, it has potentially massive benefits related to energy efficiency and reducing global warming and pollution.

The technology is ready.  Fiber-to-the-premise using open-access-friendly topologies that support competition and cost-effective upgrades of electronics as needed is an extremely future-ready strategy that has already been deployed.

And the cheapest, most "open" and "community-friendly" way to do the wireless piece for mobility will be to use the recently authorized unlicensed "white space" spectrum.  While equipment to work in this band is not yet market-ready (the FCC just opened the spectrum a few weeks ago), the prospect of some government funding to support wide-scale deployment will accelerate the move by tech companies who are already eager to introduce both network gear and mobile devices.  $100-$200 billion would go a very long way in making fiber/white space spectrum hybrid networks a reality for virtually every American.  And much of it could just be in the form of federal guarantees, since a well-managed community broadband network will pay for itself, but would be tough to fund in today's environment without some federal guarantees.

But I'm not really disagreeing with you preferred investments.  This is a time that we should be investing in ALL of this stuff--community broadband; efficient mass transit, hyper-efficient cars, trucks and planes; a smart grid (which can be managed in conjunction with the broadband buildout, since they use the same poles, etc.); universal, cost-effective and efficient healthcare (including massively revamped "food" policy a la Pollan), etc.  

We have a dying "old" economy (and I'm not talking so much about manufacturing as I am about entrenched corporate interests in virtually every sphere) and (hopefully) a dying "old" way of running the federal government (e.g., no separate capital budget, control by entrenched interests). The death is especially expensive because of the corruption that has eaten away the true wealth of our economic and our body politic for decades, especially during the past 8 years.  

But the beauty of the current crisis is that the solution is massive "community" (via the federal govt) investment in systems that actually deliver REAL value to the American people and can continue to do so for future generations in a self-sustaining manner.  Its starting to sink in that what we need is the equivalent of World War II in terms of public investment and public mobilization.  But instead of building weapons, we need to be building an energy-efficient, broadband-connected, truly health-focused, dignitarian economy and society.


[ Parent ]
I dunno (4.00 / 2)
How much does Obama's health care plan cost again?

How much would it cost if it were three times as ambitious?

It kind of gives me a sick feeling to think that we actually have a problem right now of people not being sure how the government can spend enough money to fix the economic problem, yet within a year of that point there will be a moment when some core progressive program will, despite costing a fraction of say the financial/auto bailouts or the Iraq war, be widely opposed because it costs too much.


Slight correction: (4.00 / 1)
It will be opposed BECAUSE we already threw so much money into Iraq and the troughs of Wall Street and Detroit.

[ Parent ]
Federal investment in "community" broadband (0.00 / 0)
I suspect AT&T has joined the "Call to Action for a National Broadband Strategy" coalition (which met earlier this week) because it wants a piece of any federal funding that might become available and wants to look like a "good guy" willing to cooperate with progressives at a time when we're on the ascendance and the feds are looking to spend money on broadband infrastructure.
http://www.newamerica.net/even...

But AT&T's preferred architecture is one that has limited capacity, most of which is used for their "walled garden" IPTV service, with only 6 Mbps available for Internet for many homes, with some able to access 10-18 Mbps. Not to mention that this network typically doesn't serve all of a community, only selected pockets. And that's their "next-generation" network! This is hardly the kind of "community broadband" that this country needs.

Verizon (who also joined the coalition) is building a fiber-to-the-home network with much more capacity, but its network is being designed in a way that is relatively unfriendly to access by competing service providers and they've yet to make it clear they're willing to fully support network neutrality.

Both companies have committed to deploy their preferred nex-gen network to roughly half of their footprint. Presumably they'd expand their buildout if the feds paid for some of it, or shift USF or some other money to make it more appealing to them.  As John McCain once said, "that's not change we can believe in."

Here are some broadband-related priorities that make sense to me:

1) federal funding to support state, regional and local-level research, planning and training that ties broadband investment to community needs and economic development goals, not just the business plans of private-sector service providers;

2) public investment in community broadband networks where private investment is not forthcoming, and removal of state-imposed restrictions on such investments;

3) federal guarantees for a portion of network investment costs, with such guarantees tied to requirements related to: a) support for community needs; b) financial feasibility and; c) "open access" capabilities (i.e., "neutral" networks).

In a very real sense, Internet connectivity is the nervous system of 21st century economic, political and social systems.   If it is not functioning well in parts of these systems, then neither will they, regardless of efforts made on other fronts.  On the other hand, if the U.S. becomes a nation of "smart communities" linked by broadband networks that are ubiquitous, high-capacity, accessible and affordable, then efforts to reform all other systems will be greatly enhanced.  

In addition to providing much-needed economic stimulus, creating "smart communities" linked by advanced, open broadband networks will provide the communication infrastructure we need to address other high-priority national issues.  These include long-term growth, education, healthcare, energy, political reform and the future of America's most vulnerable communities-its small towns, rural areas and inner-city neighborhoods.

Matt mentioned a Brookings study.  I'd also recommend a study published earlier this week by the Benton Foundation.  It highlights the value of broadband to all of these other areas and is worth at least a quick look and maybe a more careful read for areas you're most interested in (e.g., energy, healthcare).
http://www.benton.org/initiati...
(pdf download at bottom of the page)

This can be done at very reasonable cost (especially at a time when we actually need to invest billions in infrastructure to keep the economy afloat).  And, with fiber-to-the-premise plus the newly authorized "white space" spectrum, these networks can deliver truly massive amounts of bandwidth to fixed locations and also pretty impressive bit rates to "open" mobile devices.  Now, that IS change we can believe in--and change that will facilitate the many other forms of change we also need.

Its good to see a coalition come together in support of a "national broadband policy."  But its important to remember that we need a truly progressive broadband policy that can support successful implementation of progressive policies in other key areas.  Spending more on "business as usual" in the broadband sector would be the rough equivalent of Paulson's bailout.


And back in the real world... (0.00 / 0)
And who do you expect to build this network you're proposing? I assume that you're not suggesting that the government start from scratch, are you? If not, then who? How are we going to determine if a specific plan is suporting "community needs?" What happens if Verizon is the low bidder? What are the design standards? (And not some generic high-level objectives.)

We're supposed to be the reality-based community. We do ourselves no favor if we don't actually propose things that can be implemented in a timely fashion or don't reflect the existing industry structure.


[ Parent ]
This is quite realistic (4.00 / 1)
and has been done successfully in a number of communities, even using older and more expensive FTTH technology.  There are very clear and specific design standards that have been used and can be met.  Its not rocket science.  Its just that incumbents have built networks that fit their priorities, not those of communities and citizens.

Verizon could build it for a fee, but would not own or control it.  What I'm talking about is is the equivalent of public roads, not a "telecom network" owned and controlled by a private "telecom company" delivering the services only it decides to deliver.

How do local governments and other public agencies decide all the many other projects intended to serve "community needs?"  This is done all the time.  Why can't it be done for broadband networks?  I personally know of at least one company that specializes in helping communities do the research to make such decisions, and they've worked successfully in other countries and even a few American cities.

If you want to read a 140 page paper I wrote on this, let me know and I'll send you a link. It only scratches the surface, but it can give you the idea.

More than half of the country isn't slated for ANY significant upgrade by AT&T or Verizon.  In these markets a third network that was all-fiber could capture as much as 60% or more of the market share and could do very well financially at that level.  It has already been done, and it can be replicated.  Future projects will cost even less and can be more successful, especially if good planning tools are used.  And as I said, these already exist and have been used in other countries.


[ Parent ]
is japanese broadband publicly funded? (0.00 / 0)
Altho country-wide 20 MBPS* broadband is a reasonable goal, and would probably pay off via increases in productivity and private consumption, it's unclear that a $500 billion hunk of "stimulus" is what we should be talking about. It's regrettably not that simple to walk back from America's broadband deficit.

Effective broadband development requires a canny mix of public funding, investment incentives, legislation and regulation. If you're not stimulating competition, you'll get an inferior product. Is there any agreement about this mix, or the political will to achieve it?

* The same measures should lower the cost. The Japanese were paying $.09 per kb per second in 2005, while we were paying $3.49.  







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