I love Philadelphia. Sometimes, people will ask me what Philadelphia has, compared to other major American cities, that makes it so great. I can name a bunch of things, from being a relatively inexpensive, four-sport city in the North East corridor, to being the most walkable major city in the U.S., to being the best city for beer lovers east of the Mississippi, to having the best historical sites in the country, . However, above and beyond everything else, what Philadelphia and its suburbs have that other major American cities lack is consistently competitive federal electoral politics. From being one of the "big three" swing states, to having the most competitive House races in the country, to the 2008 Pennsylvania presidential primary, to the Casey vs. Santorum battle in 2006, only Cleveland, which is much smaller than Philadelphia, even comes close. Over the past decade, Philadelphia has been the federal elections capital of the United States, making it a pretty cool place for someone like me to live.
2010 will be no exception to this rule. Already, two years out, Arlen Specter's Senate seat is drawing a lot of attention. Club for Growth chairman Pat Toomey is looking into a rematch of his epic wingnut primary challenge against Specter in 2004. On the Democratic side, a number of high profile candidates are emerging. In the extended entry, I give a rundown of all of them.
The first is Rep. Allyson Schwartz, who ran in the 2000 Democratic primary as a State Senator and is virtually certain to run this year. Schwartz is a New Democrat who represents northwest Philadelphia and parts of streetcar suburban Montgomery County, replacing Joe Hoeffel after he lost to Specter in 2004. Her voting record puts her roughly in the middle of the House Democratic caucus. She would be the first woman elected either U.S. Senator or Governor in Pennsylvania, and is a real champion for reproductive rights, so she would probably receive EMILY's List backing. Combine this with her support of the bankruptcy bill, and she should have money up the ying-yang.
Second, the potential candidate with the most prominent national profile is talk show host Chris Matthews. His biggest advantage would be name ID, and polls already show him competitive with Specter. When I talked with Matthews on Monday, he was pretty nice to me and indicated that we "agree on a lot of things." By contrast, earlier today, David Sirota, who grew up in the region, had some pretty harsh words for Matthews. I have enjoyed Matthews over much of the past few months, but he seems like more of a Villager than a progressive. Obviously, I would support him if he is the nominee, but I think he would be better off as a talk show host. Pundits just seem to have a better life than elected officials.
A third high-profile candidate is Rep. Patrick Murphy, who received widespread netroots support during his successful 2006 campaign. Since taking office, Murphy has joined the Blue Dogs and voted with the conservative end of the caucus on most issues, coming in between Colin Peterson and Nancy Boyda over the last two years on Progressive Punch. Still, I like Patrick quite a bit personally, and his magnetism as a candidate should not be underestimated. He would be able to compete with either Matthews or Schwartz in terms of money, too.
A fourth possibility is Josh Shapiro, a Montgomery County member of the State Assembly. Josh is highly thought of in many local political circles, but he would have a difficult time competing with any of the three candidates already listed. Still, should only one of the above three throw their hat into the ring, Shapiro would be a darkhorse in the primary.
Neither Rep. Joe Sestak nor Gov. Ed Rendell will be running for this seat. Rendell would be impossible to defeat if he did run, but it ain't going to happen.
Given that all of the candidates listed so far hail from the Philadelphia region, I wouldn't be surprised if a candidate from western Pennsylvania decided to throw his or her hat into the ring. There is a real Southeast vs. West divide in Democratic state politics. Eight years ago, hardcore DINO Ron Klink was able to win the Democratic primary--and promptly lose to a vulnerable Rick Santorum--as the southeast vote was split three ways. It is possible this could happen again, with four candidates from southeast Pennsylvania considering a run.
Also, there will be an open seat in the Governor's mansion in 2010, so the Senate race will have to compete for attention. I have always thought that Senator Bob Casey would run for Governor, as he did six years ago and as his father successfully did before him. However, there appears to be no sign this will happen. Overall, I haven't heard much scuttlebutt on the Governor's race yet, but I imagine it will be all the talk at the next State Committee Meeting. It is kind of exciting to think that I will be able to vote on the state party endorsement for both the Gubernatorial and Senatorial primaries. The 2010 Pennsylvania primary is going to be great.
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