The 2008 elections may have sent the Republican Party into the wilderness, but we can't yet call it a true realigning election. Let's give thanks for getting rid of some of the insanity of the past 8 years, but even with the religious right and other reactionary voices out of direct control, Moderate (i.e. Conservative) Democrats in the House and Senate retain inordinate power to stop progressive reform.
Aside from his personal beliefs (whatever they may be), Obama is leading from the center for two practical reasons: (1) the legislative blocs remain split (for argument's sake, let's say 1/3 each) between Conservative, Moderate and Progressive, which gives the middle the controlling, swing vote. (2) While the election demonstrates considerable destruction to the Republican brand, and put the Democrats in power, it hasn't really resulted ideological realignment. In particular, it hasn't been sufficient to disempower Conservative Democrats, who remain the biggest obstacles to progressive change.
The economic crisis is an opportunity to consolidate both political and ideological realignment. This isn't a new idea here on OpenLeft. But we haven't considered how the crisis leads to instability in the power of the centrist bloc, i.e. the Conservative Democrats.
My contention is that Obama's attempts to resolve the economic crisis are likely to push things toward progressive solutions and a more progressive realignment, and the politics necessary for fixing the economic mess favor progressives rather than the Republicans or the Conservative Democrats. In other words, the Conservative Democrats will be forced to choose between supporting Obama's programs or not, between opposing progressive changes or siding with the Republicans.
Barack Obama's election means that the presidency has moved away from the extreme right. Obama's cabinet may be pretty much centrist, but at least we've eliminated the ideological wack-jobs, and we are seeing a welcome dose of competency and reality-based thinking. The Republican brand is in the toilet, and the most extreme religious, anti-government and neocon elements are out of direct power.
What's different is the economic crisis
Some have suggested that the economic crisis can serve as a kind of progressive "shock doctrine", a sort of reverse Naomi Klein. Specifically, Fiscal Stimulus and "demand side" economics appear to be necessary tools for recovery. Fiscal Stimulus is another word for Deficit Spending. Therefore, the crisis seems to have invalidated one of the primary justifications and tools used by Conservatives to prevent progressive change.
Conservative Democrats differentiate themselves from the rest of US on three issues (1) Social values (somewhat), (2) Business Friendly (mostly) and (3) Fiscal Conservatism (deeply).
In dealing with the economic crisis, Obama will have to implement fiscal stimulus and deficit spending, which will directly confront Fiscal Conservatism, one of the primary ideological underpinnings of the Centrist wing of the Democratic Party. Supply Side economics IS progressive, or conversely attacking deficit spending has been one of the best ways of preventing the implementation of progressive programs.
Obama proposes to solve the economic crisis will include Univerasal Healthcare, Green technology, Jobs, Infrastructure improvements, daycare, etc. These programs are central to progressive values politics. They will require deficit spending. Therefore, they are a direct confrontation to both the Republican Right wing and the Democratic Right wing.
As progressives we rightly view these projects as the tool for
Democratic votes play out.
