Wednesday Afternoon Election Round-up

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Aug 29, 2007 at 14:30

1. ID-Sen Competitive?
   A new poll from Survey USA shows Larry Craig's approval rating cratering, and that the majority of Idaho residents want him to resign. Since this will probably turn into an open seat, Idaho native McJoan looks at possible Republican candidates to challenge Democrat Larry LaRocco:

   So the opportunists jump into the fray. Pat Toomey, Club for Growth president and BFF of crazy Idaho Rep. Bill Sali took aim yesterday against Idaho's other representative in Congress and fellow Republican, Mike Simpson, one of Idaho's most popular Republicans.

   Bill Sali as the Republican nominee would almost immediately make the ID-Sen race competitive, considering that he barely won the ID-01 last year by 5%. Even if this is still a longshot for Democrats, the need to defend Idaho will stretch already thin Republican Senate resources down to the bare bone, allowing us to win seats elsewhere. Larry Larocco for Senate.

2. RNC to Penalize early states, too
   After the Democratic national committee pledges to deny Florida delegates at the 2008 Democratic convention in Denver, the Republican National Committee is threatening to do the same:

   "Much of the focus in the primary scheduling fight up to now has been on the Democratic National Committee's moves to penalize Florida by not seating its convention delegates because of the state's decision to move up its primary. But the Republican rules are just as stringent, and the national party said yesterday that it would not hesitate to enforce them."

   So, if Republicans are doing exactly the same thing as Democrats, why was the press coverage so much more extreme for Democrats? Over at MyDD, Jerome explains:

   Look, no hissy-fit quotes by anonymous disgruntled RNC members, no grandstanding by Rules committee members and no bad PR in Florida…. The Florida Republicans just shrugged and stated the obvious: ""I am confident that all 114 delegates from Florida will be seated," said Jim Greer, the chairman of the Florida Republican Party."

   As a party, we Democrats seem very good at turning even minor, procedural disagreements into media-friendly flame wars between local water-cooler tyrants. The primary calendar dispute didn't have to look as bad as it did for us. However, we are Democrats.

3. KY-Sen: Kentucky AG Stumbo to Challenge McConnell
   Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo has formed an exploratory committee to run for Kentucky Senate. Stumbo is not the ideal choice for progressives, given that he was one-half of the ultra-conservative Lunsford ticket in the gubernatorial primary. The progressive bench in Kentucky is not very large, and it seems the better candidates (Beshear, Mongiardo) will be occupying the Governor's mansion instead of the US Senate. Stumbo is, however, the Kentucky AG, which shows he can win statewide. Even if Stumbo doesn't win, this is another major pressure point Democrats can use to win seats elsewhere. Reaching 60 Senate seats might be possible in 2008, if everything goes well and we get candidates for the strong pickup opportunities in New Mexico, North Carolina and Virginia.

4. SD-Sen: Tim Johnson Returns
   Speaking of the Senate, Tim Johnson made his first, post-illness public appearance in South Dakota yesterday. You can watch the video of his appearance at Welcomebacktim.com.

5. Edwards Still Up In Rasmussen Tracking Poll
   Tomorrow is the moment of truth of Edwards in the daily Rasmussen tracking poll. For four consecutive days, he has been at or above 17%. Since this is a four-day rolling average poll, if this is a blip, tomorrow it will drop below 17%. If it is not a blip, it will stay at 17% or higher. While I still maintain that smallish movement of this sort in national polls is basically meaningless in terms of the large nomination campaign, there isn't much else in the way of 2008 news this week, so it is worth watching.

6. Congress Has Low Approval Ratings, Democrats Do Not
   Yes, we all know that Congress has record low approval ratings. However, it is important to remember that low approval ratings for a Democratic led Congress does not mean low approval ratings either for individual Democratic members of Congress, or for Democrats in general. Consider the last five favorable / unfavorable polls of the two parties:
   
   • Pew (7/29): Dems +10, Reps -12
     
   • CBS (7/17): Dems +11, Reps -18
     
   • Gallup (7/8): Dems +10, Reps -20
     
   • CNN (6/24): Dems +13, Reps -17
     
   • NBC (6/11): Dems +7, Reps -21
   
   "Congress" is an abstract concept that voters never seem to collectively punish. "Democrats" and "Republicans" are abstract concepts that voters seem to punish on a regular basis. Right now, Democrats hold gaping leads on Republicans nationwide, meaning that low congressional approval has not damaged Democratic electoral opportunities. This also means that any campaign urging Democrats to not support the same policies that Republicans support is doing Democrats a favor.  Republicans are really unpopular, and Democrats who want to vote like Republicans are committing electoral suicide.

This is an open thread on elections.