IL-Sen: Blagojevich To Attempt Appointment

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Dec 30, 2008 at 13:03


In a surprising move, embattled Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich will make an appointment to fill Obama's Senate seat. From the looks of it, this appointment will be difficult for the U.S. Senate to refuse:

-I've learned that Gov. Blagojevich is poised to name former Illinois Attorney General Roland Burris to replace President elect Barack Obama in the Senate on Tuesday afternoon. The embattled Blagojevich is fighting impeachment charges in the Illinois House for, among other reasons, trying to auction off the Senate seat held by President elect Barack Obama. Blagojevich called a press conference for 2 p.m. Chicago time at the Thompson State of Illinois Center.

Burris was the first African American to win statewide office in Illinois when he was elected comptroller, serving from 1983 to 1991. He served as Illinois Attorney General from 1991 to 1995. Burris previously ran and lost bids for the U.S. senate and governor. Senate Leader Harry Reid (D-Nv.) had said he would ask the Senate not to seat any Blagojevich appointee, in order to make sure the seat is free of taint.

I don't think it will be easy for Reid to refuse to seat Burris, unless Obama publicly supports the refusal. Refusing to seat a history-making African-American to the Senate, especially one who will be a caretaker and who appears to have kept himself squeaky clean in an often corrupt state

My home state's culture of political corruption is well documented. Roland Burris managed to build a career in politics in this state without falling into that muck. He is, to the best of everyone's knowledge, squeaky clean, and he's highly respected. He's 71 years old, so I wonder if he intends to serve as a caretaker. But he's an honorable guy, well liked by people across the state in both parties. It's a stroke of brilliance by Blagojevich in my opinion.

Reid might still refuse to seat Burris, but this is a fairly shrewd move by Blagojevich. Refusing to seat Burris will not come without at least some backlash, especially if the seat stays vacant instead.

Update: It seems likely that, if Burris is appointed and seated, he would run in 2010. After all, that is what he said Obama's appointment should do.

Chris Bowers :: IL-Sen: Blagojevich To Attempt Appointment

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IL-Sen: Blagojevich To Attempt Appointment | 85 comments
I love this .. (0.00 / 0)
only because it makes Reid squirm ... as far as Burris ... anyone know what kind of Democrat he is? .. I have to imagine he won't be able to scare off primary challenges .. any Ill. residents want to weigh in?
Reid will not seat him (0.00 / 0)
Senate Leadership: Burris 'unacceptable'

The Senate will not seat Roland Burris if Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich attempts to appoint him, a Democratic leadership aide said.

Majority Leader Harry Reid views Burris as "unacceptable," the aide said.


[ Parent ]
Wow .. (0.00 / 0)
that was a quick statement ... is he unacceptable just because Blago appointed him?
[ Parent ]
Yes. (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Can we not seat Reid instead? (0.00 / 0)
This is utter bullshit.  I realize that Blago is extremely tainted right now, but it seems like this guy came out of nowhere and was nowhere on the Governor's radar before he was arrested.  So Reid is now going to just reject him out of hand?  This absolutely just seems like Reid having absolutely no fucking clue what he's doing again.  Why not, at least, hear it out?  See what Burris has to say?  Look into any possible charges, etc?  

Fantastic... I guess my state will just not be represented in the Senate for probably months to come.

[ Parent ]
What do you mean by came out of nowhere? (0.00 / 0)
I don't mean that in a snarky way, just curious what you mean there.

Burris has been around for like 25 years in illinois politics. He's just been quieter lately because he's been the perennial primary loser for statewide office.

Really, I'm just frustrated that the state-house has impeached Blago yet so Quinn can make a temporary appointment.

[ Parent ]
As in... (0.00 / 0)
It doesn't seem like he was seriously considered at all before Blago was arrested.  In other words, had Blago not been arrested, he wouldn't have been considered (probably because he would offer nothing in return).

Now, I don't know that for an absolute certainty, but to reject this out of hand is just stupid... More stupidity from our so-called "Majority" leader.

Not that I think we should stoop to their level, but the Republicans very nearly allowed Stevens back into their caucus (at least temporarily), if he had won re-election.  Reid needs to show some balls.

[ Parent ]
Adam... (0.00 / 0)
Impeachment is not a fast process.  It takes time.    They tried to remove him temporarily with the courts and it didn't work.    
[ Parent ]
I know it's a slow process (0.00 / 0)
Quinn said by Lincoln's birthday. So that's about 6 weeks from now. But I still wonder how fast are they moving on this. Are they in session today and all this week? Are they calling special sessions and meeting on the weekends?

If they went 6 days a week isn't it possible they could at least have him impeached by inauguration day? I know that doesn't fix Blago trying to appoint Burris now, but I still would like to see them move faster. Maybe a Jan 31. deadline to get him out.

[ Parent ]
Unclear... (0.00 / 0)
That's, of course, just an estimate to begin with...

But it's not just impeachment... After impeachment, they have to remove him.  I'm not sure how long that would take either, but my guess is that Blago is around for awhile.

And to be honest, Blago may still beat this... Maybe not impeachment, but a lot of people around here are starting to think that Fitzgerald screwed up and they actually don't have anything on him (that is, of him doing anything ILLEGAL, rather than just seedy).  If that's the case, Blago could be around until the next election.

[ Parent ]
Not im my neck of the woods... (0.00 / 0)
Everyone I know in the West Burbs is ready to convict him.   Besides, Blago has WAY to many enemies in the Senate.  
[ Parent ]
Oh, here too... (0.00 / 0)
Just that there's been... chatter that he'll beat this.  Not that we WANT him to beat it, just that it seems possible.

It comes down to what Fitz can prove.  If those tapes are released, I guess we'll learn more.

[ Parent ]
My feeling... (0.00 / 0)
I'm thinking the chatter is due to the fact Fitz plays it close to the chest, BUT Blago's attorney never met a mic he didn't love.  The guy is a media whore.  

[ Parent ]
Also (0.00 / 0)
the case isn't just the senate seat. This has been going on for 3-4 years now.
[ Parent ]
The funny thing is ... (0.00 / 0)
I'm not so sure Blago's lawyer isn't right. I haven't heard anything on those tapes that is ACTUALLY illegal. Blago talks (incessantly and profanely) about doing illegal things, but talk it talk. I actually think a senatorial trial -- and impeachment requires one -- will not be as slam a dunk as you think.
[ Parent ]
Isn't that the basic definition of Conspiracy.... (0.00 / 0)
There was obviously enough to get an indictment....    
[ Parent ]
No Indictment (0.00 / 0)
     Blagojevich hasn't been indicted! He was simply charged by the US Attorney in a criminal complaint. An indictment requires a majority vote of a grand jury.
[ Parent ]
Interesting... (0.00 / 0)
I did some research... most papers call it indictment but it is a criminal complaint.  

I guess the question is whether Fitz is required to get an indictment or not.    Here is some info I found... it says for Feds it usually does but there are exceptions.   I guess I don't understand why they would arrest Blago if they need to get an indictment.

http://www.lawinfo.com/fuseact...

[ Parent ]
More on it. (0.00 / 0)
[ Parent ]
Dems seat Lieberman but reject real Democrat? (0.00 / 0)
I don't see how the Democratic Caucus can reject Roland Burris, who apparently is a good Democrat, after they let GOP Joe Lieberman back into the Democratic Caucus and let him keep his committee chairmanship. If they don't like Burris, the DLC should run somebody else against him in 2010.
[ Parent ]
It's not clear that he has legal authority to refuse (0.00 / 0)
Reid would be running up against a decades-old decision from the Supreme Court (Powell v. McCormack) which, while not 100% on point, strongly suggests that Reid could not refuse to seat him.
[ Parent ]
Burris (0.00 / 0)
I always liked him.   As far as I know there has NEVER been even a whiff of corruption around him.    Reid is being shortsighted on this one.    

He spoke at my high school in 1993 and was very entertaining.  He lost in the primary in 1994 for Governor, but truthfully, would have probably lost the General... Jim Edgar was well loved.  

[ Parent ]
Definitely would have lost the general (0.00 / 0)
Chicago suburbs hadn't turned Dem at that point. Poor Dawn Clark Netcshe.  
[ Parent ]
Even if the Subs were Dem... (0.00 / 0)
I don't know if Edgar was beatable...    Even I still like the guy.
[ Parent ]
Probably not (0.00 / 0)
He won what like 70% of the vote? I remember it was something absolutely ridiculous.
[ Parent ]
Dude lost the Dem nom. for governor 3 times. (0.00 / 0)
So, being a Democrat, he become a strategic consultant. (That's probably unfair, but it's not unfair enough.)
[ Parent ]
Maybe... (0.00 / 0)
I'll just say this... Karl Rove is a good strategic consultant in an Anti-christ sort of way...

Do you HONESTLY think he could win election to the Senate?  Or Governor?  Even before his approval ratings went in the toilet?  He's a hideous looking chud who would never be able to avoid saying things that piss people off.  My bet is he wouldn't get past the primary.

eing a good candidate is not always indicitive of being a good strategist and vice-versa.

[ Parent ]
This Is The Difference Betweeen Rep Crooks And Dem Ones (0.00 / 0)
The different ways in which their malevolence when cornered plays out.

Blago is merely playing the cards dealt him by trying to make fellow Dems choke on an honorable, and history-making candidate.

Someone similar in the GOP--of whom there are potentially too many to count--simply wouldn't have that option available to them.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

It's weird though (0.00 / 0)
what does Blago stand to gain from this except joyful spite? He's still going to be impeached.  
[ Parent ]
it helps him seem legitimate (4.00 / 1)
The more Blagojevich stays in office and performs the tasks of a Governor, the less urgent his removal will seem.
[ Parent ]
will not run for reelection (0.00 / 0)
Burris, 71, who was the first African American elected to statewide office, told reporters earlier this month that he only wanted to serve the remaining two years of the Senate term and would not run for reelection. Nothing in the criminal charges against Blagojevich prevents him from making the appointment, even though he's accused of trying to sell Obama's seat for personal gain.

http://www.politico.com/politi...


Roland Burris is a terrible choice ... (0.00 / 0)
As a former Chicagoan (I grew up in Hyde Park three doors down from Obama, but haven't lived there in 12 years), I take serious issue with the notion that Roland Burris is "squeaky clean."  It's not so much that he's corrupt ... he's a loser, and has the biggest ego in the world.

How many times has he run for Governor?  I've lost track.  Then, he ran for Mayor against Daley back in 1995 ... didn't get that far.  After a while, when you keep running for office and don't get anywhere, it's time to take the hint.

My theory is that Burris is the only politician who will still talk to Blagoyevich, and willing to "talk" about cutting some kind of deal.

Roland Burris may be black, but that's where the similarities with Obama end.

WTF? (4.00 / 1)
Your whole argument is he lost races against Daley (who beats everyone) and Dem Governor Primaries?   That has NOTHING TO DO WITH SQUEAKY CLEAN and to accuse Burris of talking about some kind of deal is pure ignorant trolling.    

Besides, WTF does it matter if he is a loser when he himself says he isn't running for re-election.  yes I guess he could reneg on that but there are a lot of potentially strong primary challengers in 2010...  after all, some will look at the Governor's race and figure Senate may be a better opportunity.

[ Parent ]
Regarding his Democratic Primary loses for Governor. (0.00 / 0)
He lost to Dawn Netsch Clark in 1994 who was then State Comptroller of Illinios- She was expected to lose badly to popular Republican Governor Jim Edgar in the General election year during a strong Republican Year.

He lost to Glenn Poshard- a conservative Democratic Congressman from Southern Illinios in 1998 who narrowly lost in the General election to George Ryan- a moderate Republican who is now in jail on corruption charges- Had Burris won the Democratic primary he would have narrowly defeated George Ryan in the General- the pro choice Democrats who voted for Ryan because of Poshards stance on the abortion would have voted for Burris.

His loss in 2002- He had two strong Democratic opponents in the Democratic Primary- Blago and Paul Vallas- the CEO of Chicago Public Schools. Had Vallas been the Democratic nominee he would be the popular Governor of Illinios- Illinios voters would be proud of and Vallas appointment of Rolland Burris to Obama's vacant Senate Seat would not been scrutinize.  

[ Parent ]
Broke my heart when Vallas lost... (0.00 / 0)
I'm hoping he comes back for 2010... but with Madigan and Ginollias waiting in the wings, his time may be past.
[ Parent ]
Vallas (0.00 / 0)
     Isn't Vallas currently the Superintendent of Schools in Philadelphia?
[ Parent ]
No ... (0.00 / 0)
he moved on elsewhere ... he came onto Philly on a wave .. and left before the pitchfork and torches brigade got him .. I know he got a new gig somewhere .. not sure where though .. maybe Bowers or one of the other Philly people here can fill us in
[ Parent ]
Vallas is in charge in New Orleans (0.00 / 0)
Can't recall how wide an area his responsibility is; I think his title is Superintendent. He's been interviewed about his success down there. I heard him at the City Club of Chicago. All the applause, the table joked, was because he WASN'T Blago. He said several times that he had no plans to come back to run for governor again.
[ Parent ]
I am surprised Obama did not appoint him as (0.00 / 0)
Secretary of Education.

Madigan,Giannoulus,and Hynes are top tier candidates for Governor or US Senate.

[ Parent ]
Yes... (0.00 / 0)
Plus Pat Quinn will run as well...  And if Blago gets booted all of a suggen Quinn is running as an incumbent... He is well liked and respected by the voters... just not by the corrupt machines... one of the reasons he's going after Blago hard.

It will be interesting to see who will take him on...  Madigan seems to me the strongest challenger...  she has Daddy's machine behind her without the taint of Daddy on her (and I give her credit for THAT!!)   Giannoulus is strong... I don't think he has the backing to take down Madigan... Heck Quinn will have a tough time...

Hynes will have a tough time against all 3.  He might do better this time around in the Senate run, but he was MUCH better known in 2004 than Obama was and Obama slaughtered him (and Hynes was SECOND in the primary).

My ideal would be...

Quinn for GOvernor
Hynes for LT Governor or Sec of State
Madigan stays where she is, Sec of State or Lt Governor
Giannoulus for Senate
Jesse White either stays as Sec of State or Retires

I could live with Madigan in the big chair, but I don't like it... not while Daddy is still there.  He leaves then I'm cool.

[ Parent ]
If Hynes runs for the US Senate in 2010- (0.00 / 0)
He would have to face Jan Schakowsky- who will have support from Progressive Bloggers and the Women Rights groups. Hynes will have support from Downstate IL Voters .  
[ Parent ]
I love the Progressive Blogosphere.. (0.00 / 0)
But I have yet to see any evidence that Progressive blogger support gets people elected...   There are WAY more who seem to lose than win... not sayign that the blogosphere is the reason they lost... just saying that they haven't reached that level of influence yet.
[ Parent ]
Ned Lamont (0.00 / 0)
is the one example I can think of. Obviously he ended up losing, but beating an incumbent Senator with the full backing of the party establishment in a primary is no small thing. And I think it's safe to say that Lamont was virtually an invention of the blogosphere.  
[ Parent ]
Donna Edwards, Too (0.00 / 0)
     It's hard to say whether netroots support was decisive, but support for Donna Edwards in 2006 and 2008 led to her defeat of Al Wynn. The netroots also supported Jon Tester in his primary in 2006.
    The netroots can be helpful in raising money and volunteers for a candidate with a strong message, but obviously netroots support can't elect weak candidates or defeat strong ones.
[ Parent ]
Seat him (0.00 / 0)
This seems like the best possible outcome in the short term.  He has an apparently squeaky clean record and supposedly no intention of running in 2010, making him an ideal choice in this situation.
Not sure about it being best possible outcome (0.00 / 0)
Best possible outcome would be for the state leg. to impeach Blago so that Quinn can appoint someone.

By doing this, Blago is tainting whoever gets appointed, no matter how squeaky clean. Frankly, I'm surprised that Burris doesn't realize this and is playing chicken with the Dem leadership in the senate. Unless he thinks after he's appointed this will all blow over in 6-12 months and people won't care anymore. There's a decent chance of that I suppose, but still, I don't know that he's making a case for himself with the Dem leadership. Although, being fairly close to Obama can't hurt in these matters.

[ Parent ]
Well... (4.00 / 1)
The BEST outcome would be for Blago to realize he's screwed and resign so we don't have to wait until late Feb to fill that Seat.   But its probably not happening.  Amazing... Even NIXON was smart enough to see the writing on the wall.
[ Parent ]
Well, yes... (0.00 / 0)
But, given the circumstances (in that Blago is not going down without a fight)... this seems ideal.
[ Parent ]
The guy is absolutely nuts. (0.00 / 0)
Madigan (Lisa) was right to try to get the state supreme court to remove him for mental impairment.
[ Parent ]
Agreed... (0.00 / 0)
Shame the SCOTIL didn't agree.
[ Parent ]
SCOIL? (0.00 / 0)
SCOTSOIL?
[ Parent ]
le SCOILLINOIS (0.00 / 0)
perhaps in a light Béarnaise?
[ Parent ]
Why? ... (0.00 / 0)
she made a bad move .. only a corrupt court would have granted her wish .. besides .. a lot of politicians should be removed for mental impairment .. and besides .. what happens if Blago beats the charges?
[ Parent ]
Most of the state disagrees with you... (0.00 / 0)
The move was very popular... and her argument is that the indictment AND the specific charges keep the governor from doing his job.  SHe has a valid argument.
[ Parent ]
For mental impairment though? ... (0.00 / 0)
the courts obviously didn't think she had a valid argument .. and that is what counts .. besides .. he has not officially been indicted yet .. a charge sheet is different from an indictment
[ Parent ]
Beg to differ (0.00 / 0)
An attorney general should not be able to get a court to remove the elected governor from power simply because he is accused of wrongdoing. That scenario is profoundly undemocratic and should be reserved for the most extreme situations. Blago stands accused of corruption, but he's not literally insane.  
[ Parent ]
What's wrong... (0.00 / 0)
Is that the corrupt bastard worked to block recall elections PRECISELY because the weasley little shit figured he eventually get indicted.  F him.
[ Parent ]
I think he is literally insane. (0.00 / 0)
There's no rational explanation for his behavior. I've thought this for many years.

The point is, though, that he may not be convicted, but this is far more than just an accusation. We've all heard the dialog on the tapes. Trying to sell the Senate seat is the least of his transgressions. You may recall there have been a bunch of members of Congress removed from office lately without convictions. The tapes show that he is morally, and probably mentally, unfit to fulfill his duties as governor. That should be sufficient. It's a slippery slope without doubt, but he's way over the line.

[ Parent ]
psychopathic personality (4.00 / 1)
Vonnegut made a big deal of this in one of his final books (probably A Man Without a Country), that many or most of our elected leaders would, if examined by mental health professionals, likely be diagnosed with psychopathic personalities, in that they are born without consciences and act singlemindedly to further their own interests regardless of the consequences. Blago seems to fit the bill. While that diagnosis wouldn't be enough to remove him from office, it would certainly bode well for his political future.
[ Parent ]
Well.. (0.00 / 0)
That's going to potentially take months, which, to me, is not ideal.  If Burris is true to his word, he'd be gone in a couple years anyway, no matter how "tainted" he was, and we'd get a seated Senator by the time Obama is sworn in.

Assuming Reid has the balls (which I severely doubt) to provisionally seat Franken too, the Dems will have their 59 seats when Obama is sworn in.

[ Parent ]
What makes you think he doesn't realize this? (0.00 / 0)
It may be his only shot at a position of this level.

Let's say there was a strong progressive who (for some reason) was unlikely to win a primary.  Should such a politician consider taking the job anyway as a short-term audition is the only chance that he or she has of having the job in the long run?  Or should that politician decline the seat as a matter of principle even if doing so will result in a clearly less progressive Senator?

Things You Don't Talk About in Polite Company: Religion, Politics, the Occasional Intersection of Both

[ Parent ]
Reid (0.00 / 0)
     I doubt that Senate Democrats are going to join with Republicans in rejecting a duly appointed African-American senator. Reid shot his mouth off, and now he's going to get rolled. Again. The only difference is that this time it won't be the Republicans rolling him.
Yeah, they will... (0.00 / 0)
...there is way more downside in accepting a Blago appointee then there is rejecting an AA senator... after all, this isn't about the Senate appointee, but Blago.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
[ Parent ]
Really?? (0.00 / 0)
The GOP has been running wild with the Blagojevich scandal, and trying to tie it to Obama.  After all that, they're suddenly going to accept the guy Blago appoints?
[ Parent ]
If they are devious .. sure ... (0.00 / 0)
because I believe it takes a 2/3 vote not to seat Burris(I could be wrong about the number) .. and Republicans could just abstain from voting if that is the case .. so in effect .. they could saddle Reid with this .. and look like they have clean hands
[ Parent ]
They should seat him (0.00 / 0)
He has a reputation of being a squeeky clean politician. He is not wealthy so he did not make any quid pro quo deals with Rod Blagojevich. He will have a tough time winning the primary but easier time winning the General Election.

Lets not forget Dick Durbin- the Senior Senator of Illinios is the Senate Majority Whip- any chance he will have a sit down with Reid or get his fellow Democrats to overrule Reid.  

There's merit to your argument (0.00 / 0)
but I don't know about Burris being not wealthy.

One sticky wicket is that he's a registered lobbyist with the Illinois mortgage bankers association. So he's probably not hurting for money, and that might not be the best business association to be affiliated right now. I could be wrong on that though. They may represent community banks, in which case it wouldn't look bad at all.

[ Parent ]
Who would have been a better choice (0.00 / 0)
Jesse Jackson Jr.
Mel Reynolds
Carol Moseley Braun
Jesse White
Emil Jones
Dan Seals.  
Carol Moseley Braun was involved in her own corruption stuff... (0.00 / 0)
That wouldn't have looked good.

Not sure about the others, though they're probably fine... but, most of them probably want political futures...

If Burris is to be believed, he will not run for re-election, which, to me, makes him ideal in this situation.

[ Parent ]
Uh no... (0.00 / 0)
Mel Reynolds especially...

[ Parent ]
Wow... (4.00 / 2)
Thanks for proving that you have NO IDEA WHAT THE HELL YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT!

Mel Reynolds?  Are you fucking kidding me?...  So let me get this straight... You suggest that rather than appoint Burris, they should appoint Mel Reynolds... a man who was convicted of 12 counts of sexual assault, obstruction of justice and solicitation of child pornography.  Who THEN was later found guilty of 15 counts of bank fraud and lying to the SEC... who was fortunate enough to have Clinton commute the sentence of THOSE charges.   YOU HONESTLY WANT TO APPOINT A FUCKING CRIMINAL... A CONVICTED FELON... A GUY WHO IS AS BIG A PIECE OF GARBAGE AS BLAGO IS TO THE US SENATE?????????

My God....

Oh and THEN lets look at Braun... who lost re-election and was mired in several scandals and CORRUPTION CHARGES.

Jesse Jackson Jr being Candidate 5 is marred from this and is no longer politically tenable in the position.

Jesse White and Emil Jones would both make GREAT caretaker Senators... just one problem... THEY DON'T WANT IT!!!

Dan Seals is interesting... BUT hasn't proven he can win a statewide election.  He lost to Mark Kirk and has NEVER won office before.    So not a great candidate by far to face a re-election challenge in 2010.

Seriously, if you are oging to suggest some of the people on this list... justify why... otherwise you lead us to believe you have NO IDEA WTF you are talking about and simply googled Black Illinois Politicians.

[ Parent ]
Relax and take a deep breath, (0.00 / 0)
Reynolds did pay his debt to society for Statutory Rape against a 16 year old campaign worker and Bank Fraud Charges. made a comeback for his old US House Seat in 2004- He got less than 10% in a primary race against Jesse Jackson Jr. Mel Reynolds political career is over. By the way Reynolds crimes occured more than 10 years ago- He has not gotten trouble with the law ever since he got out of prison.

Braun- since her re-election loss in 1998. Braun was appointed Ambassador to New Zealand by Bill Clinton and she sought the Democratic nomination for President in 2004- She dropped out and endorsed Howard Dean. Braun despite the scandals narrowly lost in the general Election in 1998 when The Republican party had a pulse in Illinios- voters in Illinios narrowly elected George Ryan to the governorship the same time.

Dan Seals- Barack Obama's mini Me.
Dan Seals lost in the general election against a well respected Republican incumbent in a bellwether Congressional District which Republicans held onto for a long time should not disqualify him for getting appointed to the US Senate.

Had the IL-10th CD race been an open seat- Seals would have won easily.

Tammy Duckworth who narrowly lost to Peter Roskam in an open Seat Congressional Race in a Bellwhether Congressional District which Republicans held for a long time is considered a strong general election candidate. Lets not forget Dan Seals did not get any support from the DCCC in 2006 but Seals lost to Kirk by a 6% margin. His margin of loss in the 2008 rematch narrowed slightly.

If Seals runs for the US Senate- He can win in the general Election.
Look at how Seals will perform in the each Congressional District.
IL-1-(South Side Chicago)- Seals-D 80% Kirk-R 20%
IL-2-(South Side Chicago)- Seals-D 80% Kirk-R 20%
IL-3-(SouthWest Chicago)- Seals-D 55% Kirk-R 45%
IL-4(Central Chicago)- Seals-D 75% Kirk-R 25%
IL-5 (North Side Chicago)-Seals-D 65% Kirk-R 35%
IL-6 (NorthWest Chicago Suburbs)- Seals-D 45% Kirk-R 55%
IL-7 (WestSide Chicago)- Seals-D 80% Kirk-R 20%
IL-8 (NorthWest Cook Co.)-Seals-D 40% Kirk-R 60%
IL-9 (Northside Chicago Suburbs)- Seals-D 65% Kirk-R 35%
IL-10 (Northside Chicago Suburbs)- Seals-D 45% Kirk-R 55%
IL-11 (Southside Chicago Suburbs)- Seals-D 45% Kirk-R 55%
IL-12 (St Louis-Downstate)- Seals-D 50% Kirk-R 50%
IL-13(SouthWest Chicago Suburbs)- Seals-D 40% Kirk-R 60%
IL-14(NorthWest IL-)- Seals-D 40% Kirk-R 60%
IL-15(SouthEast IL)- Seals-D 40% Kirk-R 60%
IL-16(NorthWest IL)- Seals-D 40% Kirk-R 60%
IL-17(Western IL-Spingfield/Rock Island)- Seals-D 50% Kirk-R 50%
IL-18(SouthWest IL-Springfield/Decatur)-Seals-D 40% Kirk-R 60%
IL-19(Southern IL-) Seals-D 35% Kirk-R-65%.

Seals strength in Cook County can override any losses in Downstate IL or NorthWest IL. Seals just need to convince White Liberal voters in Sprinfield to vote for him over Mark Kirk.  

[ Parent ]
These numbers on how Seals will do in each IL CD during the 2010 (0.00 / 0)
US Senate Election is pretty Conservative.
Seals will get more than 80% of the popular vote in Majority Minority Congressional Districts in the Chicago Area.
IL-1,IL-2,IL-4 and IL-7.
Seals will get more than 65% of the popular vote in Rahm Emanuels' old CD- IL-5 and Schakowsky's District IL-9.

Seals will get more than 60% of the popular vote in Lipinski's IL-3 CD.

Seals will get more than 50% of the popular vote in IL-12 and IL-17 two Democratic Districts in Downstate IL (Springfield).

Seals will get more than 45% of the popular vote in IL-6,IL-8,IL-10,IL-11,IL-13,IL-14,and IL-16). Republican leaning Districts in the Chicago Suburbs and NW Illinios.

Seals will get more than 40% of the popular vote in IL-15,IL-18,and IL-19. Republican leaning Districts in DownState IL.

[ Parent ]
Seals would win in the General Election in the 2010 IL US Senate Race (0.00 / 0)
by at least a 5-10 percent margin.  
[ Parent ]
Your hypothesizing... (0.00 / 0)
With no idea who Seals opponent would be, etc.    He'd have a good chance, but there is no evidence or proof that he would win as easily as you seem to think.  For example...if Jim Edgar ran, Seals would NOT win by 5 or more... in fact, there is a good chance he'd be beat.
[ Parent ]
Had Jim Edgar ran for the US Senate in 1998 against (0.00 / 0)
Carol Mosely Braun- Edgar would have creamed CMB by a double digit margin.
Had Edgar been the Republican candidate against Barack Obama in 2004- The race would have been a tossup.
Assuming Jim Edgar came out of political retirement and decided to run for the US Senate- He would probally defeat any Democratic candidate for the US Senate or be in a tossup race against  Madigan,Hynes,and Schakowsky . Edgar has not interest in running for the US Senate in 2010. Edgar has been out of office since 1998.

Seals Republican opponent is going to be either Mark Kirk or Peter Roskam. Both Republican who are from the Chicago Suburbs. Lets not forget the 2006 NJ US Senate Race when Bob Menedez- the NJ City Area US Congressman who has ties to corruption defeated Tom Kean Jr. The son of popular former Governor Tom Kean. Menedez represented a Safe Democratic Congressional District in NJ.  Seals was running in a swing Suburban Chicago district which Republicans held since 1980.

Jan Schakowsky the IL-9th CD US Congresswoman is also planning to run for US Senate in 2010- Seals- who live in Wilmette IL, which also borders IL-9th CD can easily run for Schakowsky's US House Seat and easily get elected to Congress.

The 2010 IL US Senate Race is going to be like the 2006 Maryland US Senate Race. In Maryland 2006.
The Republicans coalesced behind their strongest candidate Michael Steele- the Black Lt Governor or MD. Democrats had a primary between former Congressman NAACP President Kweisi Mfume(who was the controversialunelectable candidate) and Baltimore Area US Congressman Ben Cardin- who was the safe choice. Cardin won the Democratic nomination and later won the general election against Steele.

In Illinios 2010. The Michael Steele (R)candidate is either Jim Edgar or Mark Kirk. The Kweisi Mfume candidate is Bobby Rush/Jesse Jackson Jr/Danny Davis. and The Ben Cardin candidate is Dan Hynes/Jan Schakowsky.

Illinios is a blue state at the national level so any Democratic candidate who is not corrupt can win any Statewide Election in Illinios in the general election.

[ Parent ]
Sorry... (0.00 / 0)
The Mel Reynolds thing really got to me.  

Also, you keep writing like I don't understand Illinois politics.  I live here... I voted in the 1998 election (for Braun... lesser of two evils) in fact.   So please remember that as well.

Look... I don't care if Mel hasn't gotten into trouble since that point.   What he did was REPREHENSIBLE.   I'm not saying he should be shot or anything... I think he has paid his debt to society...

THAT BEING SAID, he is NOT fit to hold public office.... an arrest when one was young and stupid, I can forgive.    Serving time for statutory rape and CHILD PORN as well as being convicted of securities fraud is a whole other thing.   I would NEVER vote for him.    If he can get elected, then good for him... but NO WAY someone with that record should be appointed.  Not in a million years... frankly the governor that appointed him would lose my vote as well.

Braun has proven she can be trusted in those types of positions.    I applaud her work post Senate and the ambassadorships... and YES I know she ran for President.  Her losing had NOTHING to do with the GOP having a pulse in Illinois... It had as much if not more to do with the scandals around her and some unsavory racist comments she made as well at the time.  I still voted for her, but she is untenable in the position.    Better than Reynolds... but a terrible pick.      She has the right to re-run, but would be a stupid appointment who will probably lose re-election.

Seals I like... but he has never won a statewide election.  You're right... in an open seat he may have won.   Of everyone on your list (outside of White or Jones) Seals would be a top pick of mine... I'm not conviced he can win re-election.

[ Parent ]
Reynolds political career is over (0.00 / 0)
putting his name on the list was a joke- before he got in trouble with the law- Reynolds was considered a rising star- Harvard Educated Lawyer- Rhodes Scholar. But his political career is completely over.

Braun on the had would be a perfect caretaker candidate. If she was the Democratic Nominee for the 2010 IL US Senate Race. She will probally win due to the weakness of the IL-GOP.

Seals did not run for any Statewide Office so- How can he win Statewide Election if He has not the candidate for Statewide Elected Office? The elections that Seals lost were for the US House of Representative in a bellwhether Congressional District in the Chicago Suburbs which Republicans held since 1980. Seals was running against a popular moderate incumbent. Seals lost both races by a 5% margin.

If Barack Obama who was a State Senator from the Southside Chicago Area(he comes from Bobby Rush's IL-1- a safe Democratic congressional district) can get elected to the US Senate. so can Dan Seals who is from the Suburbs of Chicago. The biggest question is how much appeal Seals has with White Liberal Democrats in Downstate IL.  

[ Parent ]
so no one else wants to know waht the deal they cut was? (0.00 / 0)
:)  There's no way this is on the straight and narrow unless that's the deal :)
Can the Senate really refuse to seat him? (0.00 / 0)
By what power? What gives the Senate the right to refuse a lawfully appointed Senator? Especially considering the fact that right now Illinois is without full representation in Congress, I'm surprised that no one really seems to be questioning whether or not Reid really has the ability to do what he is threatening to do.  
Probably not (0.00 / 0)
Powell v. McCormack strongly suggests that the Senate could not refuse to seat him, if it came to that.
[ Parent ]
So, it's a win/win.... (0.00 / 0)
...Reid gets to look like he's fighting Blogojavich, and the guy gets seated.

So, the Senate refuses to seat him, it goes to court.. the court forces Reid's hand and everybody wins.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

[ Parent ]
Burris (0.00 / 0)
Burris and Blago are a match made in heaven. The man is the worst kind of hack and the only reason he was never indicted was that everyone viewed as meaningless at every level of politics.
Other electable Black candidates for statewide office in IL. (0.00 / 0)
Chicago Area State Senator Kwame Raoul- currently occupies Barack Obama's old seat in the IL State Senate.  
Looking at the two Black US Senators from Illinios. (0.00 / 0)
Carol Moseley Braun got elected in 1992 by first defeating a long term Democratic incumbent US Senator(Alan Dixon) in the primary for voting to confirm Clarence Thomas in the Supreme Court. Carol Mosely Braun won in the general election because of the year of Women and Bill clinton's coattails. She narrowly lost her seat in 1998 because of the scandals involving her tenure in the US Senate. Dixon's conservative voting record caused Carol Mosely Braun to get elected to the US Senate.

Barack Obama got elected in 2004 by first defeating a State Comptroller Dan Hynes who was the safe general election candidate and Blair Hull-the wealthy businessman. Obama became the front runner due to his strong opposition to the Iraq War. Obama won the general election due to the lack of GOP opposition.

Illinios does not have any credible black candidate for the Illinios US Senate race who can win in the Democratic Primary. The 2010 Democratic field will include Jan Schakowsky and Dan Hynes either them are the front runners for the Democratic nomination for the US Senate.

IL-Sen: Blagojevich To Attempt Appointment | 85 comments
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