Stimulus Strategery

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Jan 27, 2009 at 16:35


The House Rules committee is currently clearing H.R. 1 (the stimulus package), and all of the amendments to H.R. 1, for floor votes tomorrow. You can watch the hearing here.

The basic run of play is that Democrats in Congress are charging ahead on the stimulus, while the headlines continue to focus on meetings between President Obama and Republicans leaders in Congress. Elana Schor seems to be correct that Democrats in Congress don't give a rat's ass about Republican whining, and are just moving along, crafting the legislation on their own. This is demonstrated by the Rules Committee hearing, which is about to clear H.R. 1 for a floor vote, even though Republicans are still working on producing an alternative bill.

As Congressional Democrats chug along, the actual Republican strategy is not to offer an alternative, but to:

  1. Complain about one small aspect of the bill at a time, such as contraception funding, non-existent CBO reports, non-existent earmarks and, now, ACORN.
  2. Demand that, in the name of bi-partisanship, that small aspect of the stimulus be dropped.
  3. Secure meetings with Obama, in order for these complaints and demands to appear relevant to the national media.
  4. Hope that, as Digby notes, Democrats in Congress and / or liberal activists grow publicly angry with President Obama if / when he makes these concessions in order to secure more Republican votes. Thus, Republicans are fulfilling Obama's vision (even though they oppose the stimulus) while Democrats are thwarting it (even though they are writing and supporting the stimulus).
  5. Rinse, lather, repeat.
The possible achievements of this strategy are minimal.  Republicans are not going to defeat the stimulus bill, period.  Further, they are not going to pass an alternative stimulus bill with the old pattern of unanimous Republican support, plus Blue Dogs, plus a compliant President. That path is also dead.  Still further, they will not get any credit for the bill, even if they sign on to it. The party in power gets the blame or the credit, depending on the success of the legislation passed under their watch.

What they might get are small victories on things like contraception or ACORN, a few irritated lefties, plus a lot of media coverage for their meetings with President Obama.  It is petty, but it does scratch a lot of Republican itches.

Chris Bowers :: Stimulus Strategery

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Stimulus Strategery | 29 comments
Blumenour up now (0.00 / 0)
Talking up Nadler.

I just came in at the end of Blumenour (0.00 / 0)
what did he talk about?

[ Parent ]
Mostly about sustainability programs at colleges (4.00 / 1)
But he spent the last few minutes on transit and rail, endorsing the Nadler amendment.

[ Parent ]
That didn't sound good (0.00 / 0)
Corrine Brown just said that she knows her amendment isn't going anywhere.

Are ANY of these amendments going anywhere?


[ Parent ]
According to PIRG (0.00 / 0)
The Nadler one has the leadership's blessing.

[ Parent ]
Committee is speaking in favor of it (4.00 / 1)
It's going to go through.

Nadler made a very good case.


[ Parent ]
Slaughter's on board (4.00 / 2)
"Count on us." Not a negative word from a committee member. Looks like it'll be a floor vote tomorrow.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, this whole thing is annoying... (4.00 / 2)
...not sure what Obama is trying to do here... The GOP get to latch onto his coattails and still be obstructionist... I never understood why Obama wanted their votes so much in the first place...  At least he's holding his ground on the major issues...

I'm sure (I hope) there is a long term strategy by Obama in place here... I hope it reveals itself, soon...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


What I'd like to see (4.00 / 7)
is Obama going to a meeting with progressive Dems in the House and Senate. Listen to THEIR concerns. See if he can meet them halfway. After all, they will actually be voting for this bill. They, as the majority party, will take the blame if it doesn't work.

[ Parent ]
Well, he did that, actually... (4.00 / 1)
...all throughout January... This bill was crafted between house dems and the Obama team, so it's not like our dems didn't get input...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


[ Parent ]
Carrot and (hopefully) stick (4.00 / 1)
The more I think about it, the more I expect Obama will use this bill to praise Republicans that supported him while being disappointed in those that don't.  I think his goal is to set up an environment where Republicans who support him improve their political popularity while those that oppose him lose popularity.

[ Parent ]
This better be the last time (4.00 / 3)
I hope and pray to the atheist god that this is the last time Obama goes the extra 100,000 miles to get 'bi-partisan' support.  If, as reported, the House republicans all vote no, then the charade should be over.

Is it too late to fund birth control (oops, make it family planning) via SCHIP?

I watched the House session on the stimulus bill and it was sickening--when will someone stand up and say "Trickle down does not work--it failed"  or, "You lost, give it up".

Let me know if I missed the golden moment.

I live in a true blue state--I will have a choice in November


I don't understand it, either.... (4.00 / 1)
...what's with the obsession of his...  I'm sure it's part of a long term strategy of sorts, but it's not helping... it's giving way too much credence to the GOP who have been the architects of this failure and now refuse to own up to it...

I guess we'll see what happens in the next few weeks.  Obama's not naive.. hopefully, we'll get a nice surprise smackdown by the president...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


[ Parent ]
we're not red states, we're not blue states (4.00 / 3)
We're the United States, remember?

The only problem with that kind of kumbaya is that the GOP has no interest in going along with the bipartisan train. Obama needs to craft the best bill possible and throw a few bones to the GOP, instead of throwing all the bones to the GOP in the hopes that they will change their stripes. Not gonna work.


[ Parent ]
Well he's not throwing the whole carcass... (0.00 / 0)
He's drawn a line that seems to be very firm, but he's given them way too much, IMO....

Maybe this is a setup... who knows... He's surprised me before...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


[ Parent ]
The GOP already has a massive victory (4.00 / 8)
Here is the GOP dream plan (aside from unrealistic goals like 100% tax cuts):

1. An ineffective bill with inadequate infrastructure spending
2. Lots of tax cuts
3. Minimal GOP support
4. Weak economy in October 2010 that can be blamed on Democrats

Sounds exactly like what is happening, right?

All this whining about ACORN and contraceptives is just a distraction, and unfortunately too many Democrats are falling for it.

We need to keep our eye on the ball, the "ball" being the amount of job-creating infrastructure in this bill. As Sirota and Bowers and others have noted, the infrastructure was completely gutted to make room for GOP-friendly tax cuts. The GOP won the biggest battle before even sitting down at the negotiating table! And they might not even have to vote for it!

The Democrats had been add more stimulus spending. I don't see why they don't jettison another $75 billion in tax cuts and add that money to infrastructure. It seems like a no-brainer.


Too many? (0.00 / 0)
I don't see many Democrats falling for this maneuver, maybe one. Existenz is right on the tax cuts but all the business breaks need to go into infrastructure.  The $700 billion TARP was one huge lesson in the reliability of big business as a partner:  they take the money and run.

Unless the rules are changed to eliminate the faux fillibuster for Republicans only, at least one and possibly more Republican votes will be needed in the Senate.  At this point with Johnny Mac playing Republican, the pool consists of Specter, Snowe, Collins, and Voinovich.  Not a large pool at all.

The Maine ladies seem to be absent when it counts.  Specter's Republican opposition ran away so he and Voinovich may be our best hopes though the Maine ladies may join in if it doesn't matter.  We can't lose Baucus, Lincoln or Ben Nelson. I no longer trust Tester after the auto bailout.  Those are the people that need to be coddled along with a few weak northern Blue Dogs in the House.  Massive Republican input and support should be DOA.

Make it our bill.  Make it big enough to do the job and skip those business tax cuts.  They are not only ineffective, they feed the opposition.


[ Parent ]
Obama needs to stop legitimizing this shit (4.00 / 6)
no talks with Republicans without preconditions

Messaging matters (4.00 / 6)

  Chris, you're right that the Democrats can pretty much do what they want (though they don't often act like it).  But there's still a cost to letting the Republicans drive the narrative -- left unchecked, it will erode support for Obama long-term, especially if Obama continues to indulge the Republicans as if they had anything constructive to offer.

  It's all well and good to pass the stimulus -- but we also have to drive a stake into the heart of conservative economic ideology. With our economy in tatters as a direct consequence of Republican policies, THIS is the time to do that -- the public will never be more receptive. And if the Democrats miss this opportunity, the right will get a chance to re-establish its frames and narratives, especially if Congress waters down Obama's stimulus to the point where it makes no impact.

   

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn


It's hurting him in the short term... (0.00 / 0)
His Gallup approval numbers are starting to tank...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


[ Parent ]
who is in charge? (0.00 / 0)
this blog is all over the place.

i personally believe obama knows exactly what he is doing...bill is going to pass...big...and gop is not going to look like big losers (yet)...the game is to keep an open door as long as possible...its easy now when the votes are there...may not be as easy later....he is steamrolling along with out appearing to knock anyone down.

if you like the outcome it is brilliant.


"i personally believe obama knows exactly what he is doing" (4.00 / 2)
Good for you. We're trying to make the bill better. Not too worried about the Kabuki theater.  

[ Parent ]
some bloggers are trying to make the bill better (0.00 / 0)
some bloggers are obsessing over obama's behavior

i find it confusing


[ Parent ]
It could be because he's president (0.00 / 0)
The fact that he has the world's largest bully pulpit makes his actions pretty important, no?

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog

[ Parent ]
yes but (0.00 / 0)
i guess i am just turned off by this theme: oh my god he is talking to republicans, oh my god he's caving, oh my god the sky is falling, etc and so on.

there has to be a better way to getting good ideas-progressive ideas -- heard,  then merely attacking his approach to governing--imho.

as i recall it almost never worked when we attacked his style of campaigning.


[ Parent ]
campaigning vs. governing (0.00 / 0)
Surely you see the difference. While it is true that progressives were flummoxed by the Obama campaign's triumphant success with a post-partisan meme in the Dem primary, the context of governing means that the consequences of that strategy lead to policies that could weaken our economy and engender ill will towards Democrats.  

[ Parent ]
this is crazy (0.00 / 0)
we should be beating the press over the head for perpetuating, supporting and echoing right wing talking points that are illogical and unsound...not beating up obama for being against contraceptives.

Yglesias and even Marshall make more sense than the 'outrage' spewed here at OL.


[ Parent ]
Hopefully, this is (0.00 / 0)
Hopefully, this is now the solution to the economic crisis that we are facing. However, Obama's economic stimulus plan has already received negative comments even from his fellow Democrats. Recently, House Democrats today released their answer to Obama's original stimulus plan, which he unveiled last week. Their plan costs $825 billion, a bit more than the $800 billion that was originally estimated. The new plan cuts out the tax credit for businesses that make new hires. The tax cut for individuals is included though, but it's only a little bit extra in each paycheck, so a lot of Americans will probably still need a payday loan if they run into a financial emergency. Republicans, of course, are calling for more tax cuts, especially for businesses, and less spending. The Republican Study Committee released its own plan that reflects these ideals. The House is saying it hopes to have the bill finished by mid-February. To read more about the details of the House Democrats' bill, visit your payday loan source.

Stimulus Strategery | 29 comments
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