On Thursday, Kos posted a diary listing the states that fell into three categories of shift in voting margin for president from 2004 to 2008: those that had shifted to the GOP, those that showed no shift, and those that shifted to the Dems by 10 or more points. I took those states and compared them to the Gallup Party ID shifts from 2002 to 2008, and this is what I came up with:
There were 12 other states which also shifted Democratic by 10 or more points in party ID from 2002 to 2008. This is the strongest indication that the partisan vote shift over 6 years significantly exceeded the presidential vote shift from 2005 to 2008.
The states on the chart above that shifted 10+ points toward the Dems in the Presidential vote from 2004 to 2008 did not all shift in party ID more than 10 points. But their average shift was 15.1 points. In contrast, the 12 states not on the list that shifted by double digits did so by an average of 15.7 points, further reinforcing the point that there is a stronger partisan shift than was reflected in the presidential vote shift.
The clear implication is that if Obama succeeds in turning the economy around by 2012, he should win a much stronger mandate for his second term, and Democrats as a whole should be in a commanding position. But, of course, the chances of that are very much dependent on the 2010 midterms, which could be a good deal more challenging, given how questionable it is whether things can start to turn around before then.
There is also a clear implication here that Versailles will not like at all: given the uncertainty that things can turn around by 2010, Democrats would be very well-served indeed to send as many populist signals as possible between now and then. If they can't turn the economy around by then, the only thing likely to save them is if they are seen as consistent fighting on behalf of ordinary people, which will then position them to say, "We know it's tough, but you know we've been fighting tooth and nail for you, and you know it would only be worse if not for us. Don't pull us out in the middle of the fight, and we will turn things around. If not, who knows what will happen to you."
STATE BLOGS
