More On Why We Need a Blue Dog Proof Majority

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Feb 18, 2009 at 15:00


Two days ago, I argued that what progressives need to be working toward now is a Blue Dog proof majority in the House of Representatives, rather than just electing more Democrats of any sort. If the Iraq and FISA fights in the previous Congress failed to convince you of this (39 of the then-47 Blue Dogs sides with Republicans on both), and if the concessions the Blue Dogs squeezed from the Obama administration on the stimulus (see here and here) failed to convince you, then check out Blue Dogs on the Employee Free Choice Act (more in the extended entry):
Chris Bowers :: More On Why We Need a Blue Dog Proof Majority

Last week, at the Arkansas State Chamber of Commerce headquarters, chamber officials briefed nearly 100 members of a coalition opposing card check about their efforts to lobby members of Arkansas congressional delegation.

According to individuals who attended the meeting, they were encouraged by what they heard, especially what was relayed to them regarding conversations between chamber officials and 1st District Congressman Marion Berry, a Democrat.

An official informed the group that Berry recently had told him that he thought the bill was a piece of junk and that he only voted for it because he knew then-President Bush would veto it.

The official then told the group that Berry recounted to him a recent discussion the Blue Dogs had with House Democratic leadership. According to Berry, the Blue Dogs told House leadership that card check wasn't a free vote for them anymore and that their constituents were giving them a lot of grief over the issue.

So, now we have Blue Dogs going to Chamber of Commerce meetings and telling Employee Free Choice Act opponents that the bill is "a piece of junk." Nice. Let's keep electing Blue Dogs!

To top it off, the Blue Dogs are claiming that "their constituents" are giving them problems over the issue. Really? Really really? Because average voters understand card check legislation, and because somehow preventing union organizing is high on the list of priorities for people currently losing their jobs and health care? Yeah, I buy that.

The only "constituents" calling Congress opposing the Employee Free Choice Act are members of business organizations. It is important to remember that business organizations, like the Chamber of Commerce, must be who Blue Dogs consider to be their true constituents.

We need a Blue Dog proof majority. Right now, Republicans plus Blue Dogs control 228 seats in the House, and that number will rise to 229 after the special election in NY-20. Whether through primaries, general elections, or simply convincing people to leave the group, we need to flip twelve of those seats. That starts with providing no material support to Blue Dogs during their election and re-election campaigns.

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More On Why We Need a Blue Dog Proof Majority | 26 comments
What's the appropriate pushback? (4.00 / 8)
The AFL-CIO and UNITE-HERE need to agree to support one single primary challenger with at least $100,000 against any Democrat who doesn't vote for EFCA, even in districts where there's little chance of success or where that could lead to a Republican winning the seat. That's a first step.

But in places like Arkansas, the Carolinas and Oklahoma, unions are weak enough that that won't accomplish a great deal - their members just don't come from near there. So I'd also be prioritising unionisation drives there. Sure, the laws there are skewed against unions (right-to-slavery and the like) and the economic climate isn't great, but they can't just wait for EFCA before attacking and they have to push forward from their strongholds.

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog

We need more grassroots support in general (4.00 / 3)
The problem is many strong democrats have no experience with unions because we've destroyed unions. I was at a counter anti-EFCA rally yesterday in NC and there were only 6 of us there versus 150 people drummed up by the astro-turf group. Where were the other democrats?

Either the local Democratic parties need to start educating Democrats or Obama does or both. I'll do my part in my precinct, but it's going to take a much larger effort so that the Blue Dogs don't get a skewed view from the ultra-conservative republicans that are left in their party that are also the most active and keep flooding their offices with calls.  

[ Parent ]
I think you mean the AFL-CIO and Change to Win (4.00 / 1)
UNITE-HERE is a member of Change to Win and one of the 7 unions that formed the new federation (6 of whom split off from the AFL-CIO).

"Never be afraid to stand with the minority when the minority is right, for the minority which is right will one day be the majority." -William Jennings Bryan
[ Parent ]
i'm very (0.00 / 0)
pro unions, except when it comes to teachers unions. I wonder if others are like that too.
I'm more supportive of teachers unions than any other.... (4.00 / 9)
Every time they try to cut spending, they go after our teachers first, and we need good teachers to educate a prosperous and open minded America.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
[ Parent ]
You've never been a teacher, then, i'd guess (4.00 / 5)
If you've got a boss, you need a union.

Period.

Teachers have more bosses than you can shake a stick at.

[ Parent ]
I think you just like weak unions (4.00 / 4)
Teachers' unions are unpopular because they're very successful at putting their agenda through. For the same reason, the UAW gets a lot of stick from people who still characterise themselves as progressives.

Most strong organisations will push goals that are not entirely to your liking or mine. That's inevitable, and any workers (teachers included) deserve the right to belong to just such a body of their own.

For the record, I'm the son of a member of a teachers' union, although my mother is decidedly on the more moderate side of the spectrum - she voted against the last strike action on the grounds that she feels British teachers are well paid enough already.

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog

[ Parent ]
A useful list... (0.00 / 0)
I'd like to suggest the absence of a quorum... I mean, I'd like to suggest the absence of a useful list that somebody could compile: A list of the bluest congressional districts currently occupied by a blue dog (or someone who votes substantially as a blue dog).

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!
Once more: (4.00 / 6)
Name             District       Obama %    Career PP
David Scott      GA-13          71%        83.31
Joe Baca         CA-43          68%        85.96
Adam Schiff      CA-29          68%        89.13
Mike Thompson    CA-1           66%        86.87
Jane Harman      CA-36          64%        80.28
Loretta Sanchez  CA-47          60%        86.93
Melissa Bean     IL-8           57%        79.62
Jim Cooper       TN-5           56%        76.33
Mike Michaud     ME-2           55%        88.58
John Barrow      GA-12          54%        70.64
Sanford Bishop   GA-2           54%        75.66
Leonard Boswell  IA-3           54%        74.71
Patrick Murphy   PA-8           54%        87.87
Michael Arcuri   NY-24          51%        93.79
Dennis Moore     KS-3           51%        80.92

No Obama %

Jim Costa        CA-20                     83.03
Joe Donnelly     IN-2                      76.27

Baron Hill       IN-9            49%       74.02
Tim Holden       PA-17           48%       70.41
Brad Ellsworth   IN-8            47%       83.33
Mike McIntyre    NC-7            47%       66.73
Colin Peterson   MN-7            47%       61.12
John Salazar     CO-3            47%       84.52
Heath Shuler     NC-11           47%       75.13
Gaby Giffords    AZ-8            46%       83.33
Zach Space       OH-18           46%       86.79
Stephanie Herseth SD             45%       80.15
Allen Boyd       FL-2            45%       76.19
Chris Carney     PA-10           45%       78.77

All of the others are in unfavorable disricts.  Gene Taylor and Charlie Melancon are good fits for their districts.

Those in a 60% Obama district clearly need to dump th Dogs.  In fact, given the extremist nature of the Dogs anybody at 50% should leave.  Including Cooper.

[ Parent ]
Thank you (4.00 / 2)
It would also be cool if somebody gave me a million dollars...

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!
[ Parent ]
Are these all the blue dogs or just the southern ones? (4.00 / 3)
Most of the people who supported EFCA the strongest were blue dogs from Pennsylvania...  I think that we need to have strong labor pushback in places like the keystone state and western New York, where unions still have a lot of clout.

You won't get much support in the South, I'm afraid, 'cos unions are seen as a method for black people to rise up.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

northern blue dogs (4.00 / 4)
yeah I wouldn't worry too much about them. This is all being driven by southern blue dogs and the anti-EFCA groups are targeting them hard.  
[ Parent ]
If EFCA passes by one vote, it passes by one vote... (4.00 / 2)
...it won't really matter in the long run.  All that matters is that it passes!

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
[ Parent ]
That's why (4.00 / 4)
we REALLY need to focus on
1. Blanche Lincoln
2. Mark Pryor
3. Mary Landrieu
4. Ben Nelson
5. Arlen Specter
[ Parent ]
is there also maybe an opportunity with others? (esp bec the GOP's talking all populist now?) (4.00 / 1)
Rust-belt GOP Senators, for instance?
[ Parent ]
Unlikely.... (4.00 / 2)
Voinovich is now "Mr. Cranky Old Man"... Kit Bond, maybe... maybe...  not too many other rust belt republican senators, though... Luger?  Very iffy....

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
[ Parent ]
No. (4.00 / 1)
Only Specter. Extremely slight chance of Olympia Snowe. There really aren't any rust-belt GOP senators left!
[ Parent ]
oh well -- (0.00 / 0)
worth asking about.

I see things like Lindsay Graham calling for bank nationalization, and it makes me think that there might be strange bedfellows on a bunch of issues.

That Berry guy is owned by WalMart anyway -- Arkansas is their headquarters. I bet if we look at their donations to pols, we'll see those people all against EFCA.

[ Parent ]
What about Lugar (0.00 / 0)
Indiana is a very unionized state, and is a lot bluer today than the last time Lugar faced the voters. He also is supposedly somewhat moderate.
[ Parent ]
Nope. (0.00 / 0)
If Lugar didn't vote for the stimulus bill he sure as hell won't vote for EFCA. Especially since he's already voted against EFCA and there's no reason for him to change. He had no opposition in his last election and will feel little to no heat in his next election.
[ Parent ]
They were whining about the sitmulus, too... (4.00 / 2)
There was a quote at politico during the stimulus fight from a republican that said that blue dogs were all talk... they complain and whine to appease people at home, but when push comes to shove, they will still hold the party line when it comes down to it.  

This strategy isn't surprising.... it's what "moderate" republicans managed to do for so long... lie about their party-line votes and get away with it.

But, we need more pressure on these guys and that means credible primary challenges.  Republicans are terrified of "club for growth" challenges, where is our "club for growth"?

We need to make these people as afraid of us as they are the club for growth.  This should be our new project.  How do we start?

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

districts/redistricting -- and party majorities -- and funding -- (0.00 / 0)
Will the 2010 redistricting simply lock in current officeholders by making their seats safer?

What are they planning?

And overcoming incumbent advantages and the Party's financing of sitting Blue Dogs -- and do these Dogs actually get GOP votes as well as Democratic?

It's not just primary challengers and funding them, i don't think, when it comes to conservative Dems (altho even the non-Blue Dogs need to be challenged -- they all do). Is it true that liberals can't win no matter what in some or many of these districts (ignoring all the other parts of the equation)?

The Census! (4.00 / 2)
It determines representation.

that's why it's vital, and why the Pukes are so determined to have a say in the Dept of Commerce, which oversees the Census.

[ Parent ]
yup -- and the population has grown in the South/West (0.00 / 0)
since the last census, which means more seats there, and not in (Blue) Northern states.
[ Parent ]
Blue Dogs I think will vote for EFCA with (basically) no strings attached (4.00 / 2)
1. Acuri
2. Baca
3. Sanford Bishop (?)
4. Dennis Cardoza
5. Chris Carney
6. Jim Costa
7. Joe Donnelly
8. Brad Ellsworth (?)
9. Tim Holden
10. Patrick Murphy
11. Mike Michaud
12. Adam Schiff
13. John Salazar
14. Loretta Sanchez
15. Zack Space
16. David Scott
17. Charlie Wilson
218 without bluedawgs? (0.00 / 0)
Reliably? I doubt very much it could be done. The main reason for the Dim party, in toto, is to fragment as much as possible the opposition to the will of the masters and bosses, and keep it confined safely in tiny, powerless pockets...

Much harder to have a blue-dwg-proof majority in the Senate. The magic number'd be somewhere around 70...

More On Why We Need a Blue Dog Proof Majority | 26 comments
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