Two weeks ago, I wrote a diary, "Is Washington the South? That Could Explain A Lot", in which I wrote:
Barack Obama is wildly popular. But in Versailles, not so much. After all, he's a Democrat and now that Republicans have rejected his bipartisan gestures, it's clear that he's got cooties, just like all the other Democrats in DC, except maybe Ben Nelson.
So Obama's continued popularity comes as a bit of shock to Versaillers....
I went on to note, based on the DKos/R2000 tracking poll, that Obama's favorability rating was in the 70s and 80s outside the South, compared to just 51% inside the South. A similar pattern--though with lower levels of popularity, and not so extreme could be found with congressional leaders, and with measures of party popularity: everywhere outside the South, Democrats dominated by landslide majorities. The South was the only place were rough parity could be found. But Versailles continued treating the parties as if they were closely matched. So what are things like two weeks later? So far, pretty much the same.
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| First, here are the results for the parties' national political leaders from two weeks before last week:
And what I wrote about them:
The South is narrowly divided, while the rest of the Country is overwhelmingly pro-Dem and anti-GOP, as can be clearly seen in the ratings for Obama, McConnell and Boehner....
In the South, Obama has a net favorable of 7 points, compared to McConnell at -2. That's just a 9-point difference. But outside the South, Obama's net favorables are an astronomical 58%, compared to McConnell's abysmal -39%, a jaw-dropping difference of 97%. Baehner goes from 16% down in the South to 107% down everywhere else.
Reid and Pelosi have much less dramatic swings. Still, Pelosi trails Boehner by 2% in the South, -11% to -9, but wallops him elsewhere, +10% to -49%, a 59% thumping. Reid loses badly to McConnell--by 19 points--in his Southern stomping grounds, but crushes him by 33 points elsewhere, -6% t -29%. Reid is not a popular guy anywhere, really. But outside the South, McConnell is running neck-and-neck with Dick Cheney and the Ebola virus.
The following week showed only minor changes:
As did last week as well:
This can be clearly seen by condensing everything to net favorables inside the South, outside the South and nationwide, and combining all three weeks into one chart:
President Obama is the only political figure who shows movement of more than two points from one week to the next either nationwide or inside or outside the South. His poll movements also show a distinct pattern--down 5 points inside the South, up 7 outside it, for a 12 increase in the difference between the two: a 51 point difference jumps to a 63 point difference.
In short, the only losses Obama seems to have suffered are limited to the South, where he still enjoys a slight plurality. He gained 4 points in the Northeast, 4 in the Midwest and 6 in the West in terms of net favorability.
Turning to the party favorability measures, here's what the first week looked like:
And here's what I wrote about it:
Congressional Democrats trail Republicans by 5 points in the South, -32% to -27%. But outside the South, the lead by 53%, -7% to -60%. For the parties in general, it's even more tilted toward the Dems. In the South, they barely lose by 5%, -8% to -3% for the Reps. Outside the South, Dems have a 71% avalanche advantage over Reps, +30% to -41%.
The next week showed little change:
But last week showed dramatic gains for Congressional Democrats everywhere outside the South:
Congressional Democrats were up an astonishing 22 points in the Northeast, up 17 points in the Midwest and up 18 points in the West, for a non-South total of 19 points up. The Democratic party in general also showed noticeable grains, but these were much more modest and uneven. The congressional gains were simply so stunning that it's hard to imagine anything like them.
Comparing the first week to the last week, we see that Congressional Democrats moved from a 53-point edge in the non-South to a 76-point edge. Inside the South, they went from a 5-point deficit to a 4-point deficit. Of course it's still very early. But if this is how how the next two years turn out, Democrats look poised to win even more Republican seats outside the South in 2010.
As epitomized by President Obama's address to Congress, in contrast to the embarrassing GOP response, Versailles seems to have grudgingly admitted that maybe there really is something to this Obama fellah. But their attitude remains much, much closer to that of the South than it is to that of the nation as a whole... much less non-Southern America. |
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