Congressional Democrats have scored positive, or even, favorable / approval ratings according to all eight polling firms that have conducted public opinion surveys on them since the Inauguration. These figures are remarkable because, in most polls, they are the first positive approval ratings from Congressional Democrats since early 2007 (and, in some cases, since early 2002, after the September 11th attacks). However, it is not just Congressional Democrats who have seen a dramatic improvement in their image since President Obama took office. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has also entered stratospheric, 2-1 positive territory on favorabliliy over the past few months.
Check out Clinton's favorability ratings compared to this time one year ago (more in the extended entry):
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NBC, March 1st (March 10, 2008 numbers in parenthesis)
Positive: 59% (45%)
Neutral: 11% (18%)
Negative: 22% (48%)
Gallup, January 11th (January 13th, 2008 numbers in parenthesis)
Favorable: 65% (50%)
Unfavorable: 33% (46%)
CNN, December 2nd (January 10th, 2008 numbers in parenthesis)
Favorable 66% (53%)
Unfavorable: 33% (39%)
I bring this up to point out that Hillary Clinton remains the "heir apparent" for the 2016 Democratic Presidential nomination. With a vastly expanded corps of dedicated grassroots activists, a more diverse resume as Secretary of State, and new, greatly improved favorability ratings, she is actually in a much stronger position that she was two years ago. While she will be 69 in 2016, that is still (just barely) young enough to run for, and win, the presidency. It is the same age Ronald Reagan was back in 1980.
Now, it must be said that, eight years ago, much the same could have been said about John McCain. The problem that McCain ran into was that, in the intervening 6-7 years, the popularity of his party plummeted. Hillary Clinton faces the same potential pitfall. Just as John McCain's 2008 hopes were largely tied to Bush's, Hillary Clinton's 2016 hopes are largely tied to the job performance of President Obama and the Democratic Congress. Should Democrats govern poorly, or otherwise see a precipitous decline in their popularity, Hillary Clinton's position will erode.
Is it possible that another underdog, grassroots favorite could emerge to defeat Clinton for the Democratic nomination in 2016, ala Barack Obama in 2008? If Clinton's favorable ratings stay this high, then the answer is actually no. No one has a prayer against a candidate with a mid-60's favorable rating and a big-time activist army if her party is popular. At that point, any candidate looking to pull an upset better have saved the world from alien invasion, or something similar. As such, the person I can think of who would have a shot to challenge her in that circumstance would be Al Gore (very high favorables, one year younger than Clinton). I know that it is six or seven years from now, but an epic Clinton vs. Gore 2016 primary might actually be kind of fun (if, at the time, possibly a bit too retrograde). |
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