First elected in 1998, defeated in 2004, and victorious in 2006 in one of the top races in the country, Baron Hill is a proud Blue Dog and fiscal conservative -- he has a national debt clock on his website. Our Bush Dog Spreadsheet notes that his district is R+07 and he has a 74.57 Progressive Punch score. He has voted with Democrats 89.5% of the time according to the Washington Post. He faced the same opponent in the last three elections, winning twice and losing once, and will probably face him again in 2008:
2006 He won with 50.0% of the vote.
2004 He lost with 49.0%
2002 He won with 51.1% of the vote.
2000 He won with 54.2%
1998 He won an open seat with 50.8%, succeeding Democrat Lee Hamilton.
I also noticed that there was been a huge increase in the libertarian vote in the last election, suggesting to me that there was dissatisfaction with the Republicans among those unwilling to vote for Democrats. In any case, the view that this district is challenging for Republicans and that Hill has to worry is obviously born out by these results. As you'd expect for one of the top 2006 battleground districts, a huge amount of money was spent on his behalf by all parts of the Democratic coalition: the Blue Dogs, MoveOn, unions, environmentalists, moderates, and most especially Democratic members of Congress. He even got $5000 from Wal Mart!
Blue Indiana is a great soapblox-based state bog, and they have lots of tags on IN-09. One particularly interesting discussion followed the FISA vote. The poster suggested strong criticism directed towards the Indiana Reps, but did not think a challenge has any chance of success and that Hill is overall a good man. I have not found anyone who believes that IN-09 is safe for Democrats or that a primary challenger would have a good chance to win the general election. Thus, we have the case of a "Bush Dog" who is representing a Bush district, who fears for his re-election based on his 2004 loss. He is said to be a strong fundraiser.
Another vote that is disheartening to progressives is that he lead the Blue Dog effort to set CAFE standards separately for different car classes -- which he says is more achievable, but looks to me like an attempt to water down the requirements by letting SUVs meet a lesser standard. For the second interpretation a liberal's reaction on his very public undercutting other Democrats on mileage.
On Iraq, it is worth noting that in his July press releases, he is rhetorically on the right side:
The headlines of today's major newspapers announced a shift in President Bush's Iraq strategy. As today marks the six-month anniversary of the President's announcement of the troop surge in Iraq, the change in course seemed timely and appropriate. However, speaking to an audience in Ohio this afternoon, the President offered absolutely nothing new in the way of strategy in Iraq. Instead, he told Americans to be patient, keep the faith and continue on with this war.
The President has asked the American people to be patient with him and this war for far too long now, and their patience is wearing thin. So too is the patience of some of the President's most ardent supporters. Some of the most distinguished members of the United States Senate from the President's own political party have called upon him to change course in Iraq, urging him to develop alternative plans that largely entail the redeployment of our troops. The President can no longer say that he will withdraw our troops 'eventually'. The American people and our troops deserve better - they deserve to know when the Iraqi people are expected to finally step up to the plate and take control of their own country. We cannot do it for them, and we cannot ask our soldiers to fulfill such a task.
I was very disheartened to hear the President continue to push his stay-the-course strategy in Iraq. The President has repeatedly rebuffed Democrats' call for a change in direction on Iraq. But now, the most senior and well-established members of his own party are calling for a different strategy in Iraq. It is time for the President to hear what the American people, members of his own political party and Democratic leaders are saying: we want real leadership that will bring our troops home honorably, quickly and safely.
On the mitigating side, I personally am happy that he seems to be a strong supporter of math and science funding based on the Rising Above the Gathering Storm report, although this (theoretically) should not be a partisan issue.
As is perhaps typical, Hill has hurt us with these Bush Dog votes and is openly a Blue Dog. It is simply a fact, however, that has been a great battle to get even him elected and the 2004 results show that his likely opponent can beat him. We can expect that he will get very strong establishment support in his battleground district, so personally I think there are better uses of our own finite resources than helping him.
Disclosure: I am not from Indiana, and the only thing I can say about it from personal experience is that the state likes Guns and Roses and driving fast, so I've enjoyed my visits. I hope someone from Indiana does a profile.
STATE BLOGS
