First, a new public opinion poll from Pew. They have historically used two measures of the "mood" of the country. One is a right track/wrong track question and the other is a measure of satisfaction. Over the last two decades these measures track very closely together (click the link to see the chart). But now the two measures are in sharp contrast with each other. Only 20 percent say they are satisfied with the state of the country while 41 percent say the country is on the right track. The obvious explanation is the "satisfaction" measure reflects the present mood and the "right track"measure reflects expectations for the future. When you break this poll out by party afilliation you find that Democrats more than Republicans believe we are headed in the right direction. Almost everyone agrees thngs aren't great right now. The second poll on this theme was released by Rasmussen last week. Some are skeptical of Rasmussen because its founder is reportedly Republican but I've found their election polling to be more accurate than many of the other pollsters out there and am reluctant to dismiss their results altogether. They used 3 questions to categorized people as primarily "populist" (Mainstream according to Rasmussen) or as belonging more to the "political class." -- Generally speaking, when it comes to important national issues, whose judgment do you trust more - the American people or America’s political leaders? -- Some people believe that the federal government has become a special interest group that looks out primarily for its own interests. Has the federal government become a special interest group? -- Do government and big business often work together in ways that hurt consumers and investors? To create a scale, each response earns a plus 1 for the populist answer, a minus 1 for the political class answer, and a 0 for not sure. Those who score 2 or higher are considered a populist or part of the Mainstream. Those who score minus 2 or lower are considered to be aligned with the Political Class. Those who score +1 or minus 1 are considered leaners in one direction or the other.
We can certainly quibble with this measure. But first the results. They find that 55 percent are populist and 20 percent lean that way, seven percent are "political class" and seven percent more lean that way. The "populist" group is evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats. What do the "political class" believe? Most (76 percent) hold a favorable view of Treasury Secretary Geithner, most believe AIG should be bailed out and most believe the government is doing the right thing on economic matters. The populists (or Mainstream class in Rasmussen terms) are very different. Only 12 percent have a favorable view of Geithner and they don't believe the government should be bailing out corporations such as AIG. And there's this: The biggest surprise so far is that a plurality of the Political Class believes the economy is getting better while 66% of those in the Mainstream say it’s getting worse.
So, two different ways of interpreting the apparently contradictory mood of the country. What is your take? |
