Obama = JFK/Afghanistan = Vietnam???

by: Paul Rosenberg

Sat Mar 28, 2009 at 15:45


I've long felt that the politician Barack Obama most clearly resembles is John F. Kennedy.  The same youthful, technologically-tinged message of change. The same pop-star style excitement. The same sort of outside-the-party-regular kind of campaign.  The same sort of substantively modest modest agenda compared to what a more tradition liberal would be pushing in similar circumstances.  The same abundance of tactical and short-term strategic brilliance that can lull one into ignoring the lack of a sound long-term strategic planning.

And the same flawed judgment when it comes to land wars in Asia?  It well could be.  JFK's Vietnam policy has long been shrouded in myth and mystery, but for me--a boomer who's read about Vietnam in five decades now, the most insightful narrative so far on this particular aspect of the war appears to be David Kaiser's 2000 tome, American Tragedy: Kennedy, Johnson, and the Origins of the Vietnam War .  While Kaiser's view of Kennedy is more favorable than mine, his interpretative touch is relatively light, and I have no reservations in enthusiastically recommending this book for the insight it provides.  It makes a very strong case that Kennedy had no desire to fight in Asia, and went to extraordinary lengths to reverse a collision course that Eisenhower had set us on.  But one thing Kennedy did not do was replace the ideologically-blinkered advisory apparatus, which kept failing to give him the sort of genuine alternatives he was hungering for.

How sharp Kennedy's hunger really was is subject to debate, as are similar questions about Obama.  One thing is for certain, however: Both men recognize the limits of military power, and the need for more wide-ranging thinking, but both, so far, have failed to reach out to create a policy apparatus that might help them find a better way.  

Paul Rosenberg :: Obama = JFK/Afghanistan = Vietnam???
By way of a partial summary, here's what Publishers Weekly said about Kaiser's book:

This masterpiece of governmental history locates the roots of the Vietnam War not in the Johnson or even Kennedy administration, but back in the military policies of the Eisenhower era. Eisenhower and his advisors took an aggressive attitude--including an openness to using nuclear weapons toward communist advances anywhere, "especially in Southeast Asia," Kaiser finds. Neutralist, nonaligned governments in emerging nations, such as in Laos, were treated as enemies; Kennedy was more open to nonaligned governments and more interested in detente than in war. But the positions of the Eisenhower administration were entrenched institutionally among both civilian and military advisors in the State and Defense Departments.

Drawing on a host of documents from recently opened government archives and tape recordings of White House meetings, Kaiser offers voluminous and meticulous evidence that Kennedy repeatedly rejected, deferred or at least modified recommendations for military actions, most notably in Laos. Misled by aides into thinking we were winning in Vietnam, even after Diem's overthrow, Kennedy never aggressively redirected policy there. President Johnson, less skilled than Kennedy in foreign affairs, readily reverted to Eisenhower's narrow policy framework, despite the emergence of critics among his advisers whose thinking echoed Kennedy's. Kaiser repeatedly says they ignored problems they couldn't solve and failed to heed clear evidence that their assumptions were flawed, making defeat a foregone conclusion. This is a commanding work that sheds bright light on questions of responsibility for the Vietnam debacle.

The book actually recounts how we were quite close to heading into war over Laos before Kennedy took office, and steered us away, establishing a neutral government which he considered a victory, given the proximity of Red China. It argues that Kennedy would have been quite content with a similar arrangement in Vietnam.

The parallels here should be obvious: a more nuanced, diplomatically inclined Democrat follows a more conventional Republican, and seeks to reverse the dynamic of increased militarism in Asia.  He likes a more diversified approach, is willing to support domestic military efforts, but places his bets on US advisors and special forces rather than ground troops, thinking that he's sealing himself off from the all out war he sees no point or profit in.

And, of course, the very command continuity that has Versailles swooning over Obama is precisely the problem, given this history.  Other views are readily available, of course. Tough not, it would seem, where they are needed most.  In quick hits, RandomNonviolence points to the odd couple of Tom Hayden and former CIA point man on Osama bin Ladin, Michael Scheuer.  From Hayden's original:

The hard choices are laid out very clearly in writings by the CIA's former point man on Osama bin Ladin, Michael Scheuer, who also ran the Agency's rendition program and still supports it. Scheuer is a tough guy, in other words, who says the options are either to kill all the jihadists, make it quick, and withdraw [not a real option], or begin pursuing an agenda which addresses what he calls Muslim issues: the American military and civilian presence in the Arab Peninsula, the unqualified US support for Israel, US support for states which oppress Muslims [China, India, Russia], US exploitation of Muslim oil and suppression of its price, US military presence in the Islamic world, US support and protection of Arab police states. [Michael Scheuer, Marching Toward Hell, 2008]

Such an approach would create an option to violence for many millons of jihadi sympathizers and potential recruits. It would create an incentive not to inflict terrorism, blow up airplanes and hotels, or deploy a nuclear bomb in a suitcase. It would disturb the multinational oil companies and the Israel lobby, but open a better path to stability than wars against the Muslim world.

RandomNonviolence links to other alternative views as well, but I'd like to pick up on an oldier piece, written in the immediate aftermath of Obama's election by Sameer Dossani at Foreign Policy In Focus, "The Case for U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan".  What this piece provides is a clear and deep case for an alternative approach.

Dossani starts with drawing a clear distinction between two contrasry conceptions of justice: Martin Luther King's and George Bush's:

The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral, begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy. Instead of diminishing evil, it multiplies it. Through violence you may murder the liar, but you cannot murder the lie, nor establish the truth. Through violence you may murder the hater, but you do not murder hate.

In fact, violence merely increases hate. So it goes. Returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness: only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate: only love can do that.
- Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

I want justice. And there's an old poster out West, I recall, that says, "Wanted: Dead or Alive".
- George W. Bush

He goes on to say that Obama will have to chose between these two when he takes office, and I think it's fair to say that Obama, characteristically, had tried to choose one from Column "A" and one from column "B".  But, unfortunately, just like JFK before him, the advisors are almost entirely stacked under column "B".

In the next section of the article, Dossani provides a poignant insight into the Afghani perspective, recounting some major events of recent history, and how they are commonly viewed:

After the events of September 11, 2001, the Bush administration portrayed the Taliban as deeply connected with al-Qaeda, the terrorist network that claimed responsibility for the attacks, and therefore argued for going to war against Afghanistan. When the Taliban countered that they were happy to give up Osama bin Laden, the alleged mastermind of the 9/11 attacks, if the U.S. could produce any evidence for the allegation, the U.S. scoffed. Then the U.S. invaded.

The invasion succeeded in two things: First, it brought down a terrible fundamentalist regime while taking an inordinately heavy toll in civilian causalities. The Taliban had instituted a brutal form of shariah law and forced minorities to wear identification tags. They had even destroyed ancient Buddhist carvings claiming that the depiction of the human form is "unislamic." Many Afghans - particularly the half of the population who happen to be women - were excited to see the Taliban ousted. While this is an accomplishment, it's worth remembering that expectations for improvement in women's lives were largely unmet.

The second and even more dangerous accomplishment of the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan was to elevate the Taliban, al-Qaeda and anyone willing to resist U.S. aggression to the status of heroes or freedom fighters.

Perhaps the easiest way to understand what most Afghans and many South Asians, Muslims, and others around the world felt after the invasion is to remember how Americans felt after the September 11 attacks. George W. Bush was a deeply unpopular president. The election that brought him to power had split the population, with shady dealings in Florida and an activist Supreme Court ultimately deciding the race in favor of Bush. Many of my liberal compatriots despised the president, who was already acquiring a reputation for spending his presidency on vacation.

But after the 9/11 attacks, those same liberals were rallying around Bush. The logic was simple: in a time of crisis, with your country under attack, you support those who are going to defend you. You may not like George W. Bush, but his policies his armed forces stand between you and whoever caused significant damage to New York and Washington, DC.

By the same logic, who stood between Afghan civilians and the NATO aerial bombardments that killed about 3,000 people? The Taliban. Every bomb that detonated on a wedding party led to tens, perhaps hundreds of young people - mostly young boys and many of them orphans - joining the resistance movement under the flag of the Taliban.

And it's not just that the Afghan population believes that the Taliban resistance is legitimate; that resistance is legitimate under international law. No less important a document than the United Nations charter gives the Taliban and other Afghans the right to legitimate self-defense against U.S. aggression.

It bears noting that there's nothing terribly remarkable about the insight here--although it is very well expressed.  Far more remarkable is the lack of such insight amongst America's political elites.  The parallels Dossani draws between Afghani and US attitudes are obvious enough, and similar enough to similar dynamics in Irag that under-educated 20-year old American troops in the field have had no such problem making the connection.

Why can't US political elites see something this obvious? There are a number of reasons, but one of them is something I intend to take up at greater length later this weekend, and that's the narcissistic incapacity for empathy.  It only takes a very minimal amount of empathy to be able to see the parallels that Dossani points to--at least to grasp their general outlines.  We're not talking about the deeper sort of empathy that actually shares any of their feelings, just the bare minimal amount necessary to recognize the parallels.  Even that bare minimum is commonly beyond the capacity of the diagnosed narcissist, one who would formally be identified as suffering from narcissistic personality disorder (NPD).  And when it comes to our foreign policy establishment, this is not the only example of broadly-shared NPD-like thinking.  Indeed, such thinking is, broadly speaking, more the rule than the exception, when dealing with dark-skinned non-European people.   And it is also clearly a recipe for unmitigated failure.  For if we cannot understand other people as fundamentally similar to ourselves, we will never be able to find a way to live with them.

Of course there are profound cultural differences.  And there's a deep need to provide an alternative to narrowness of the fundamentalist vision.  Dossani addresses this directly in the next section of the article:

In 1999 I was the first staff person of the International Network for the Rights of Female Victims of Violence in Pakistan, a group that was combating "honor crimes" along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. These were incidences of domestic violence, often against a wife, a sister, a daughter or even a mother who was accused of having some kind of illicit sexual relationship. We understood that these crimes were on the rise because of the spread of Taliban-style Wahabi Islam into tribal areas that already had an extremely patriarchal view of women's bodies.

What was our weapon of choice in fighting against the Talibanization of what has traditionally been a tolerant, ecumenical form of Islam? Education. We taught women their rights under Pakistani and Afghani law, we taught about the passages in the Quran that mentioned women's rights, and we also tried to educate people about other traditions - whether they be secular humanist traditions or the Hindu and Christian traditions of neighboring countries and tribes. In other words we tried to undermine the hatred, the xenophobia, the fear upon which fundamentalism is built.

Such efforts may take generations, and they almost always require the state to play a role in education, development and ensuring employment for all. But ultimately education is the only way to combat religious fundamentalism, just as negotiation is ultimately the only way to end war.

This is not the sort of solution that America's instant-gratification society likes to hear about.  But it beats the hell out of decades of abject failure, doing the same stupid things over and over and over again, in slightly different dress.

How does such a perspective translate into advice for an Afghanistan policy?  Further down, Dossani lays it out:

Instead of scaling up an already disastrous war, the United States could change course in a way that would ultimately do a lot more to ensure the world's safety. Such measures should include:
    1. Withdrawing troops. International law is clear on this subject. No country may occupy another indefinitely and certainly not without the will of the people being occupied. If an Obama administration truly thinks that withdrawing U.S. and NATO troops would be a bad thing for Afghans, hold a referendum to see who would like the troops to remain.

    2. Working with the various Afghan factions to begin negotiations. Wars are rarely stopped on the battlefield, and those that are have a tendency to break out again after a few years. The recent history of Afghanistan illustrates this point. It's better by far for enemies and friends, Pashtun, Tajik, and others to settle differences through negotiation based on mutual respect and the rule of law.

    3. Once stability and security are guaranteed in Afghanistan, beginning the attack on fundamentalism in earnest. Working to incorporate Afghanistan into the international human rights framework through enforcing UN measures which Afghanistan has already ratified, such as the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women is one step that can be taken in this regard. Another is major investment in social infrastructure and particularly health and education measures which will ultimately help Afghanistan recover from being bombed "into the stone age."

If the idea of immediately stopping all military operations in Afghanistan sounds radical, it shouldn't. No less than President Hamid Karzai pleaded for an end to the bombings immediately after the U.S. election, as yet another wedding party fell victim to bombs from the sky.

For the sake of all us, Afghan and American, let's hope President Barack Obama heeds his call.

Of course, this is not what Obama has chosen to do.  He has, instead, chosen  very JFK-like approach, one that seems reasonable and nuanced--and that, indeed, is reasonable and nuanced compared to what came before it... at least if you ignore international law, and actual Afghan people themselves.  For this is what passes as reasonable and nuanced within the circles of elite foreign policy opinion.  And the proof of this is that Obama has now succeeded in eliciting European support.

Unfortunately, this is not just not enough.  Not even close.  It is, at least potentially, every bit as dangerous as JFK's Vietnam policy.  We should not forget that America had the broad support of its allies when it started out in Vietnam.  It took years for our allies' elites to realize how badly wrong we had gone, and by then, nothing they could do could stop us.

What's needed is for Obama actions to match his words.  He needs to include the views of all in his decisionmaking process.  The views of all--and not just the Establishment's self-selected "best and brightest", the sort who brought us the Vietnam War in the first place.


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Interesting (4.00 / 1)
I'm still digesting a lot of what you wrote, but I thought I'd mention that earlier this month, I had a chance to see Ted Sorensen speak, and to briefly meet him. He talked a lot about the similarities he sees between his former boss and President Obama, both in terms of the politics and in terms of personal style and his perception of how they think about policy issues.

Sorensen also emphatically stated that had Kennedy not been assassinated, we wouldn't have escalated in Vietnam. He said that Kennedy understood that "political problems don't have military solutions."

If there's anyone that's qualified to comment make comments like that, it's probably Ted Sorensen. I'm just hoping that the similarities that Sorensen sees extend to that understanding-- "political problems don't have military solutions."


Yes, But (4.00 / 3)
Had Kennedy lived, he might have felt trapped into military action for domestic political reasons, as, indeed, LBJ did after Kennedy was assasinated.  (This is not the best book on that angle.  That would b A Grand Delusion: America's Descent Into Vietnam by Robert Mann, the only history to focus on the role of the Senate, with a good deal of time spent on the Truman & Eisenhower eras, and how they set the stage.  An indispensible book.)

While Obama and JFK obviously have differences as well as similarities, I would argue that what's important here is that neither seems to appreciate the importance of building their own foreign policy establishment to support their views.  In Kennedy's case the primary reason seems to be that he was simply self-confident enough to ignore advisors outright when he felt they were wrong, and since he enjoyed intellectual debate, he might even have preferred things that way.  Obama seems more like a common conformist, an outsider seeking to blend in.  His personal self-confidence is quite solid, but there's less indication of intellectual independence than with Kennedy.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
Presidents are Privatized (0.00 / 0)
You seem to think a "President" has a lot of leeway. He doesn't....he doesn't care about that...he cares about personal prestige....being president has nothing do with doing whats beneficial for the population...more now than ever...it has to do with staying in power.

Politicians have no time for "policy" they have only time for fund raising.

The Job of president has been privatized.  


[ Parent ]
Domestic Politics (0.00 / 0)
My read of history is that domestic politics and the mandate to continue Kennedy's policies can fairly be said to account for LBJ's early Vietnam escalation, but once he continued the escalation, say in 1967, it's a stretch to blame that on domestic politics.  Further, of course, it was domestic politics (places like New Hampshire are pretty domestic) that forced LBJ out.

What will it take to persuade/force Obama to change his policy if things continue to go bad in Afganistan?


[ Parent ]
You Really Need To Read Mann's Book (0.00 / 0)
There is no way I can convince you of Mann's argument in a blog, as simply saying "domestic politics" does not begin to capture the depth and complexity of what he's talking about.

I'm not trying to be superior or patronizing here.  Quite the opposite.  If I had not read Mann's book myself, I would very likely agree with you.  It's just that crucial and important a book.  He explains the complexity of the dynamics and conflicted motivations and institutional loyalties involved in a way that probably only a former Senate staffer could do.  

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
It's becoming increasingly difficult (4.00 / 4)
not to see Obama's plan in Afghanistan as being built fundamentally on an effort to project "toughness" toward terrorism, regardless of its actual effect on terrorism.

In a way, Afghanistan appears to serve for Obama the purpose Iraq served for Bush: the country in which he makes a big display of force to strike a blow against terrorists, even if no real terrorists actually are to be found there anymore. Obama certainly realized that he could not use Iraq for that purpose, given his own campaign statements about the pointlessness of the Iraq war.

But he likely felt a strong need to compensate for that with a demonstration of "strength" elsewhere. Afghanistan fit the need, because there was a real relation between its government before 9/11 and the terrorists who perpetrated 9/11.

Certainly, in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, that relation was genuine, and the requirement to invade Afghanistan and bring down the government enabling it was urgent.

But does that relation stand now? Is there any reason to believe it would come right back into existence, and the terrorists would return, if we were to withdraw from Afghanistan? Even if some terrorists came back to Afghanistan, would we not be a position to stop the development of any infrastructure by those terrorists far more readily than we were before 9/11, and precisely because we have 9/11 as both an historical warning and a justification for action if deemed important? If the terrorists were in some measure to return, how different might that be from the current situation, in which they are largely holed up in Pakistan?

My expectation is that further military activities in Afghanistan that are not directly precisely at terrorists are largely futile. The wilds of Pakistan would seem already to serve the needs of terrorists every bit as well as the wilds of Afghanistan. No doubt no government in Afghanistan will ever again allow Osama bin Laden the free rein he had before 9/11, most importantly because they would know that the American government would not hesitate for a moment to bring them down if they did so. If we withdrew from Afghanistan, Osama and his crew might be able to choose to duck rockets in Pakistan or in Afghanistan, but they would be as much under siege as they are now.

So what, really, is the purpose that further military intervention in Afghanistan serves for Obama? Apart from the politics of it, I'm not seeing it.


Thanks, Paul, for the best ... (4.00 / 3)
...evaluation so far of Obama's approach on Afghanistan. As I wrote yesterday at Daily Kos, there were no surprises in the new policy outlined by the President; the leaks had been coming for weeks. Those, like Slate's Fred Kaplan, who expected this to be either Petraeus's COIN approach or a more limited effort may well have been confused since it seemed to be both at the same time.

What we heard was a claim that the mission going forward is simple: disrupt, dismantle, and defeat. But that, of course, as you say so well about Obama's approach in general, is not all there really is:

I think it's fair to say that Obama, characteristically, had tried to choose one from Column "A" and one from column "B".  But, unfortunately, just like JFK before him, the advisors are almost entirely stacked under column "B".

Exactly. Unfortunately, the policy being adopted is also almost entirely stacked under column "B," i.e., more troops. Compare the $3.2 billion a month slated to pay for 60,000 soldiers and marines with the money slated for a few hundred civilians working in education and agriculture, and the grim picture becomes quite clear.  


Thanks (0.00 / 0)
for the compliment.

I agree completely with your added analysis.  The "one from column 'A'" is pretty much all rhetoric and rationale.  The balance of military to civilians pretty much tells you everything you need to know.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
Thanks for the thoughtful commentary Paul (0.00 / 0)
And I'm glad that this article is still relevant. Well, maybe I'm not glad...

For those who are interested, I'll be speaking on just this subject on Tuesday, April 28 at Queens College (CUNY) in Flushing, NY. There's no website, but here's a facebook page.


[ Parent ]
Obama kills out of Self interest (0.00 / 1)
Who are these people the U.S. is killing?

Oh they don't matter...look how they are dressed. Their lives must be miserable. They live in huts, most of them. They don't have shoes, many of them. Karzai...he has very nice clothing. He's not like one of THEM...he's more like one of US. He's our friend..was our friend...till he started complaining about killing THEM. I don't like Karzai anymore.

Obama expands Bush's wars against...what? Villagers in Afghanistan..

Obama+JFK+Bush = Stupid

Obama is one of THEM from my point of view. He's a killer. Like all presidents and most heads of states with large militaries.

What kind of person wants to be president?

A person who is willing to kill out of self interest.

I see almost no difference between Bush and Obama in important issues, Economy, Murder and support of Murder of Arabs.


Best parody troll of the day! (4.00 / 2)
You win, buddy!  Have a cigar.

[ Parent ]
Good piece (4.00 / 1)
. . . by Ray McGovern at Consortium News:

Welcome to Vietnam, Mr. President

In her classic book, The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam, historian Barbara Tuchman described this mindset: "Wooden-headedness assesses a situation in terms of preconceived fixed notions, while ignoring or rejecting any contrary signs ... acting according to the wish while not allowing oneself to be deflected by the facts."

. . . It is wooden-headedness, in my view, that permeates the "comprehensive, new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan" that the President announced on Friday.  Author Tuchman points succinctly to what flows from wooden-headedness:

Once a policy has been adopted and implemented, all subsequent activity becomes an effort to justify it. ... Adjustment is painful. For the ruler it is easier, once he has entered the policy box, to stay inside. For the lesser official it is better not to make waves, not to press evidence that the chief will find painful to accept. Psychologists call the process of screening out discordant information 'cognitive dissonance,' an academic disguise for 'Don't confuse me with the facts.'


You miss the key difference between Vietnam and Afghanistan. (0.00 / 0)
Paul did you see Rachel Maddow's interview with Zbignew Brezinski a few days ago?
He mentioned a key point that does change the picture considerably, for me anyway.  Where Vietnam was a war of choice, Afghanistan is one of necessity.

As a hawkish progressive I totally agreed with his views on the whole picture, which approved of the Obama plan pretty as is on the grounds that we absolutely must target and attack that sector of Afghanistan where the mostly Pakistani based  extremists are holed up, recruiting and planning.

He is seriously concerned with Pakistan's potential collapse and supports the Obama plan, not Senator Feingold's more aggressive approach.  Train the Afghans, and shore up the militarily on the Afghani side of the border, but provide ample domestic support to the peoples of both nations to encourage and keep them from joining the anti-American side.

I can't find any fault in that logic. Minimal and targeted focus on our real enemies - the extremists and the opium,  and getting to the people before the enemy does are sound strategies for our future security.
Had we attended to the needs of the people in Iraq on day 1, we'd have been done for the most part long ago. We have hope in Pakistan- we can't blow it.

Nationalism is not the same thing as terrorism, and an adversary is not the same thing as an enemy.


Yes, I Saw It. But Brezinski Has Blood On His Hands (4.00 / 5)
so he's got good reason to rationalize.

It was his bright idea to get us involved there in the first place, back during the Carter Administration.  And after 9/11, when he was asked if maybe he thought it hadn't been such a good idea after all, he said, "No."  He thought 9/11 was worth it, apparently, even though the Soviet Union was already in decline, and things probably would have been much better if that decline had been cushioned rather than exacerbated.

So, now he claims that Vietnam and Iraq were wars of choice, but Afghanistan is a "war of necessity"?  But, isn't the present war always a "war of necessity?"  Isn't "this time it's different" always what they say?

Well, if it's a "war of necessity", then you should be able to define in advance what constitutes a "war of necessity", and then show why this one qualifies.  He did nothing of sort, of course.  Because, quite frankly, under international law, there is no such thing.  The only war that's justified is one of self-defense.  And no way Afghanistan is attacking us.  It's just ludicrous.

I like Rachael Maddow a lot.  But she shouldn't be relying on war criminals.  Democratic ones are not notably superior to Republican ones.  Now, however, it seems like she's developing a thing for them.  Colin Powell next Wednesday.  What?  Eichmann wasn't available?

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
Disagree very much (4.00 / 4)
1.  It is just wrong to say that we would have been done in Iraq early on if we had taken care of the needs of the people.  For one thing there were significant Bathist elements that were going to oppose us no matter what.  Lots of Republican Guard members just waited for us to get to Baghdad before they started really opposing us.  Also, there is the simple fact that we were an invader, and getting electricty and running water back online (after we knocked the infrastructure for them out) was not going to change the fact that we were invaders.  Nationalism is not about the material needs of the people.

2.  Neither you nor Obama nor his advisors has clearly identified the enemy.  Is the enemy just Al Qaeda?  Is it everyone who calls themselves 'Taliban'?  If so then we are committed to killing an idea.  A pretty repugnant idea on the whole, but an idea nonetheless.  The Taliban as a group with a unified command and institutional structure has been gone for over seven years.  What we are fighting is a resistance movement that calls itself 'Taliban' because that name has become, for a lot of people in the region, a name to cling to.  They opposed the Americans when no one else did.  If you think military engagement can defeat a nationalist resistance movement with a highly distributed command structure, then I think you ignoring the lessons that imperialist powers were taught at great cost of life throughout most of the 20th century.

3.  This criticism is not particularly at you, but at the seeming uncritical acceptance on the left of this idea that what we should support the US training the Afghan and Iraqi armies, and that we should be invested in the success of the governments that are currently recognized as the legitimate governments of those countries.  It seems like people either don't care, or have forgotten, that creating military and governmental institutions in conquered countries is just imperialism on the cheap.  This is what every colonial power did in Africa, the Subcontinent and South-east Asia.  This is how you perpetuate control of a country after your troops have left.  And it seems that everyone is on board with our having similar relations to Iraq and Afghanistan that Britian had to its colonies in the early 1900's.  Essentially it seems that everyone is on board with making sure that Afghanistan and Iraq are part of the American Empire before we leave.  My brother is going to be in Baghdad in two months.  He is going to miss the birth of my first child while he is there.  The thought that he is going there basically to insure that American contractors and military advisors have a guaranteed market in the Iraqi police and army, and to insure that America has a proxy vote in OPEC makes me sick.


[ Parent ]
there's virtually no public discussion of the impact on Pakistan (4.00 / 3)
specifically, our remote-controlled drone attacks in the tribal regions, and the fact that we're flying those drones out of Pakistani bases with the tacit cooperation of the Pakistani government.

There's a lot of paranoia about another terrorist attack occurring if we don't "get" the terrorists in Afghanistan, but most people appear to be utterly oblivious to the far greater national security threat posed by the destabilization of Pakistan.

Given his professed concern for arms control, and efforts on missile defense with Russia, it seems to make no sense that Obama doesn't see the danger of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal falling into the wrong hands.

But if one assumes that Obama is merely following the conventional wisdom on foreign policy, rather than using his own judgment, it makes sense. Russia is seen as a nuclear threat because it's been seen as a nuclear threat since the Cold War; but Pakistan is not seen as a nuclear threat.

Obama said not a word about the drones in his speech about his Afghanistan policy, even though the president of Pakistan publicly urged Obama to bring them to an end. There was even an article in the NYT that claimed that Obama's team was considering expanding the drone attacks into the province of Balochistan (which is part of Pakistan proper, not one of the autonomous tribal regions). This would seem to indicate that the drone attacks will continue.

This is highly reminiscent of Nixon's covert bombing of Cambodia, which was kept secret for over a year and a half before it became known. Of course we apparently take it for granted now that the president has the authority to engage in such unilateral actions.

If it continues we could further destabilize the government and in the worst case, we could find ourselves at war with Pakistan, which would be almost unthinkable.

I wish I could be sure the administration understood the danger, but they appear to be blinkered by the same ideology that has hampered our foreign policy for years.


Excellent Point (4.00 / 3)
Indeed, the real problem was evident from 9/11 onward and it was first and foremost not our "enemies" in the Middle East, but our allies--most particularly Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Israeli.  Seven-plus years later, nothing fundamental has changed.  The threats in each case are different, but the failure to do anything to mitigate those threats is the same in all three.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
Vietnam and Afghanistan (4.00 / 2)
A documentary about Robert MacNamara, "The Fog of War, contained some startling admissions.  Vietnamese casualties were higher than MacNamara thought but the Vietnamese were willing to take much higher casualties than MacNamara reasoned to achieve unification.  That war was not, as a popular book at the time called it a thousand year war but a 1700 year war that was very close to success.  Macnamara's paradigm was wrong.  The kind of all out war that would have been need to incur casualties at the level of five or even ten million would certainly have meant much greater US casualties and a far different war.

I don't think we have a very good notion in Afghanistan about what kind of war the "locals" are willing to fight and what kind of casualties and costs we are willing to incur.  The belief we once had was that the Russians were willing to incur costs far higher than US casualty and dollar costs from Vietnam.  In effect, they broke at roughly half the casualties we took in Vietnam.  World War I and World War II Russian/Soviet casualties in a defensive war were quantum times higher.

If "victory" is settling for a metro Kabul government allied with the US and having some ability to intervene against major terrorist bases, we might be able to do that.  If "victory" is actually governing and moderrnizing Afghanistan and breaking the back of a series of locals with shifting alliances on a permanent basis it is probably beyond us.

The last successful outside conqueror in the region was Genghis Khan nearly 800 years ago.  First, the local dynasty went out of its way  to insult one of the most feared men of the last thousans years.  All Genghis wanted was to continue the trade caravans from north China (a recent conquest) to the middle east (with the goods heading west).  Instead, the Kharezm Empire seized his trade goods and slaughtereed its traders.  When Genghis sent emissaries they were first shaved (the insult) and then beheaded (the heads sent back with one survvor).  Genghis met it all.  Charismatic Muslim warrior prince, large armies, local mullahs stirring things up.  He not only destroyed cities he obliterated them, rerouting rivers over the ruins.  He killed off the entire royal family.  He literally rode his horse up the steps of a prominent mosque and proclaimed "I am the wrath of God come upon you."  And then he personally swept up the eastern part of Afghanisatan that was not part of this foolish empire.  It was the most brutal of many brutal conquests and he spent more resources than he probably used to conquer Northern China.

A little shock and awe won't work.  Defeating armies and charismatic leaders won't work.  Occupying cities won't work.  The Russians and the Brits found the countryside teeming with fresh and more dangerous opponents.  If, maybe when, they beat you (and Genghis' son Juchi was defeated), you come back with the A team and really get destructive.  Do we really want to go there?  For what?  

Cochise let us in on the Apache paradigm that was used in their wars against the white man.  The Apache believed they were as numerous as the leaves on the trees on a mountain.  The white man was more numerous.  No Apache knew how many white men existed.  So they used a paradigm.  For each Apache that died, they would kill ten whites.  They didn't care if the Apache was a warrior, an old man, a child, a woman.  A dead Apache was a dead Apache.  They didn't care if they killed a soldier, a male hunter or prospector, a child or a woman.  If after fighting, the 10:1 ratio was achieved; there was peace,  If not, war parties went out to achieve the ratio.  This really wasn't so far from MacNamara's body count 80 or 90 years later.  Like MacNamara, the plan did not work despite valliant effort because the model was flawed.

Tell me.  What is our model?  Is it accurate?    


The Problem Is (4.00 / 1)
We don't think about any of this.  History is beyond us.  We are still fighting WWII.  With that mindset, it's a miracle we didn't lose the Cold War.  The only thing in our favor?  The Soviets were still fighting WWII, too.

(Keith Olbermann voice:) Model?  Model?

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


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