Fear vs. Hope

by: Mike Lux

Mon Mar 30, 2009 at 15:35


I'm on a Midwest swing of my book tour and unlike my other trips so far, I am running into some Republicans at my book events (as well as spending some time with relatives who are Republicans). Part of that, of course, is that I am close to home, and in places like Lincoln, NE, people come out to see the hometown boy who has gone to the big city, even if they are of a different political persuasion. And part of it is simply location: there are simply a lot more Republicans per capita in Nebraska than there are in most of the cities I've been to on the book tour (SF, NYC, Boston, etc.).

It has led to some interesting questions and conversations which I love. There are few things I like better than a fun debate.

I have a nephew who is a very conservative Republican, and is also a strong debater. He has read The Progressive Revolution, which must have been tough for him to take, and is planning on writing me a long response, which I look forward to getting. But in the meantime, he pushed me very hard on the whole hope vs. fear theme of my book, said it was a cheap shot, that progressives have been using fear in their arguments as much as conservatives.

It's a worthy argument. More in the extended entry.

Mike Lux :: Fear vs. Hope
On one level progressives have certainly expressed fear of certain things over the years. Fear of environmental catastrophe in Rachel Carson's Silent Spring or of the consequences of global warming, for example.

Progressives certainly were fearful that an uninformed extremist like Sarah Palin could become President, and that McCain continuing Bush's economic policies would drive us deeper into a depression. In 2004, progressives expressed fear that another four years of George W. Bush would be a nightmare, and in 2002/3, before the decision to go into Iraq, we raised the alarm that we would get stuck in Iraq for much longer and with far more deaths and cost than Bush and his team were predicting.

It's not just in recent times that progressives have raised fearful predictions on issues. Jefferson, even though he was a slave owner himself, proposed a plan to phase out slavery because otherwise, he said, the issue would tear the country apart. Seven decades later, Lincoln said (on the same topic) that a house divided against itself could not stand. In the late 1800s, populists and progressives raised fears about corporate trusts gaining too much power, and about the dangers to our most beautiful lands and our food supply itself if corporate America was not checked. And progressives in the late 1920 warned of the dangers of unchecked speculation on Wall Street leading us into serious economic times.

So yes, it is true, progressives have used arguments based in fear many times over the years, so my nephew has a reasonable point (the fact that we have been right all those times does not diminish the point).

Here's why I still stand by what I wrote in The Progressive Revolution, thought. As I put it in the book:

When Barack Obama based much of his 2008 presidential campaign on the theme of hope, he certainly wasn't the first candidate to make that pitch. And when John McCain, George W. Bush, and Dick Cheney, during the years since 9/11, preached fear and more fear and nothing but fear, they weren't the first do to that, either. The entire history of American political debate can, in some sense, be described as the argument between the hope of progressives for a better future vs. the fear of conservatives who want to protect the way things are now.

Progressives do sometimes paint scary pictures, because there are scary things in the world. But the essential argument of conservatives has always been to fundamentally fear change: that there are unintended consequence top change, that tradition is to be honored, that people are rich and powerful for a reason and authority should be deferred to. The intellectual father of modern conservatism, Russell Kirk, decried "a world that damns tradition, exalts equality and welcomes change", and he wrote that "hasty innovation may be a devouring conflagration."

The essential argument of progressivism is that change on behalf of justice, equality, and fairness is a risk worth taking. We have always said that it is worth hoping, because it is possible to make the world a better place. Barack Obama, in his greatest speech ever in my view, laid out the progressive case for hope better than anyone:

We have been told we cannot do this by a chorus of cynics who will
only grow louder and more dissonant in the weeks to come. We've been
asked to pause for a reality check. We've been warned against
offering the people of this nation false hope.

But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been
anything false about hope. For when we have faced down impossible
odds; when we've been told that we're not ready, or that we shouldn't
try, or that we can't, generations of Americans have responded with a
simple creed that sums up the spirit of a people.

Yes we can.

It was a creed written into the founding documents that declared the
destiny of a nation.

Yes we can.

It was whispered by slaves and abolitionists as they blazed a trail
toward freedom through the darkest of nights.

Yes we can.

It was sung by immigrants as they struck out from distant shores and
pioneers who pushed westward against an unforgiving wilderness.

Yes we can.

It was the call of workers who organized; women who reached for the
ballot; a President who chose the moon as our new frontier; and a King who took us to the mountaintop and pointed the way to the Promised Land.

Yes we can to justice and equality. Yes we can to opportunity and
prosperity. Yes we can heal this nation. Yes we can repair this
world. Yes we can.

And so tomorrow, as we take this campaign South and West; as we learn
that the struggles of the textile worker in Spartanburg are not so
different than the plight of the dishwasher in Las Vegas; that the
hopes of the little girl who goes to a crumbling school in Dillon are
the same as the dreams of the boy who learns on the streets of LA; we
will remember that there is something happening in America; that we
are not as divided as our politics suggests; that we are one people;
we are one nation; and together, we will begin the next great chapter
in America's story with three words that will ring from coast to
coast; from sea to shining sea - Yes. We. Can.

Yes, progressives are fearful of things that are truly scary. But our essential argument has always been hope over fear.


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Fear vs. Hope | 20 comments
Tough one (4.00 / 2)
When the fear is justified it doesn't really count as fear mongering.  But then, both sides always think their fear is justified.

When Bush wanted to privatize Social Security, it was the liberals who feared change and promoted all kinds of horror stories.  Now, we were obviously correct -- just imagine if Social Security invested in the stock market a few years ago -- but that not the point.

I still think that conservatism is fundamentally founded upon fear and liberalism is founded upon hope, but I have a damn hard time proving that with all the counter examples.


I'd like to agree with you, and I amy overall, although (4.00 / 1)
I need to think about it more, but how to you respond to Ronald Reagan and "morning in America."

This, I think, is in the eye of the beholder:

progressives are fearful of things that are truly scary

Things that we see as hopeful may invole outcomes, intended or unintended, equally as scary to conservatives.  

These are quite contested terms:

justice, equality, and fairness

The Randians have pour entirely different content into these terms than, for exampel, social democrats, who pour entirely different content into these terms from the content of centrists.

In the end, I think hope v. fear does not accurately model the differences.  

Equality v. liberty night, but that of course brings the same sort of indeterminancy.

The Rs used anti-communism and racism to obtain power after the New Deal, but I don't know if that is inherent to their beliefs.    

A conservative Republican can rhetorically offer hope over fear, just as Obama did.  Just different hopes and different fears.    


Sorry about the typos. (4.00 / 1)
I think the Ronald Reagan counter example is a problem.  As bad as he was, to many people, he was the optimistic hopeful one and Democrats were not.

I think it comes down in the end to what kind of world one wants to live in.  A highly stratified society or one with a broad economic and social equality.  Rawls' thought experiment with a veil of ignorance is interesting, but in the end, we are situated where we are.  As someone from the working class who is upper middle class now, I prefer a broad equality based on moral and pragmatic grounds that are convincing to me.

Which side are you one is my measure, not Dems use hope and Rs use fear.  Those are tactics, not ends. While tactics are important, they ar enot dispositive.  And hope and fear are so contested, as I said above, with my hopes someone else's fears.      


[ Parent ]
But even there... (4.00 / 2)
Behind the "Morning in America" happy talk, Reagan used fear. He used it in demonizing the working poor as "welfare queens" and "deadbeat dads" out to trash our lovely white suburbs and turn them into black & brown drug-infested, gang-plagued ghettos/barrios. As Paul points out downthread, right-wing authoritarianism is based on fear of the other.

Yes, Virginia, there are progressives in Nevada.

[ Parent ]
I just don't agree. I think (0.00 / 0)
it is too simplistic.  Both Democrats and Republicans use tactics that they think will work.  I think we delude ourselves with the hear/hope dichotomy.  

I recall Reagan quite well, and he used race and class hatred of the poor quite effectively, but he used hope and optimism even more effectively.

George Bush used fear (of terorism) and hope (spreading democracy).

I think it's far more complciated than Mike Lux wants it to be.  Further, Republican "authoritarianism" is not the only conservative vision in this nation.  


[ Parent ]
I lost a lot of hope today... (4.00 / 2)
...when Obama threw Michigan and Ohio under the bus....

I guess Wagoner should have been schmoozing Geithner more....  we got killed up here today....

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


Obama is a centrist. A Republican would have killed (4.00 / 4)
GM and Chrylser completely.  Obama will help them, but on terms that are onerous to working people.  Better than McCain, but the Two Americas remain alive and wekk on Obama's America.  AIG has contracts we cannot break for bonuses and gets billions and billions, even after Obama was President.  Car companies get help so long as contracts arre broken.

The limits of centrism and "hope."


[ Parent ]
True. (4.00 / 1)
Obama's better, but not perfect. This is why we must keep pushing him leftward. We simply can't allow any more corporate welfare for the Wall Street swindlers while we the people keep getting pushed into poverty.

Yes, Virginia, there are progressives in Nevada.

[ Parent ]
It woudl have been better for the republicans to destroy it... (0.00 / 0)
...then we could blame them... as of now, democrats will rightfully get the blame for not doing everything in their power to save GM from bankruptcy.  That's why democrats got elected in Michigan and Ohio.  Democrats will stay home in 2010 and 2012 if the results are different...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


[ Parent ]
Don't Forget The Scientific Evidence, Mike! (4.00 / 3)
Nearly 40 years of research on rightwing authoritarianism (RWA), spearheaded by Robert Altemeyer, shows conslusively that those on the right are more fearful than those on the left.  It's a statistical diffence, not an absolute black-and-white thing.  But there are strong indications about how and why this has a profound influence on the political differences between conservatives and progressives.

First of all, the correlation with RWA grows stronger the more politically involved conservatives/Republicans are, while Democrats remain pretty much the same.  This naturally means that fears more readily amplify and reinforce one another among the more politically engaged conservatives than they do among less politically engaged conservatives, much less progressives of any level of engagement.

Second, RWA has been shown to correlate with indiscriminate fear.  Those scoring high on RWA are more likely to say that anything they're presented with is "our most important problem"--even things they aren't especially focused on ideologically--and they're more likely to want to round up anyone as some kind of threat--even themselves!.  (In one example, Altemeyer asked if RWAs should be rounded up as a danger to society, by a  statistically significant margin, more RWAs thought this was a good idea than those who score average or low on the RWA scale.)

With this as a basic empirical background, I think it's a lot easier to make sense of the foreground information such as that you present.  The fears that progressives tend to focus on tent to be much more specific, more limited, and more directly connected to actual material conditions that we can actually do something about.  That means that the transition from fear to hope to effective action and workable social policy is much more straightforward, which means that progressives don't tend to just wallow in fear.  They tend to get mobilized by it, and then move on to more empowering states of being.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


I don't know, Paul. (0.00 / 0)
Fear, hope.  

I prefer less emphemeral things, like class, economic status.  :-)

Just not convinced that fear and hope is useful in modeling.  


[ Parent ]
Data, Dude! (4.00 / 2)
I know it may seem ephemeral in the abstract.  But what turns some parts of the working class to fascism and others to socialism?  Altmeyer's research priovides part of the answer to that.

He started out looking closely at Adorno's work with The Authoritarian Personality, found that a lot of it wasn't empirically supported, so he ditched the Freudian theory, and just looked at the correlations that held up, providing and explanation for them after the fact.  Solid empirical research, with methodological rigor and a minimum of theorizing.  You can't beat that with stick where I come from.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
I would have to take the time (0.00 / 0)
to check out the data and look to those in the field to see if the results are generally accepted, and, if not, why not.

That said, conservative views are not only authoritarian.  hell, I see Obama as fundamentally conservatve.

This is a very interesting question:

But what turns some parts of the working class to fascism and others to socialism?

In any event,  I will have to read the work when I get time. I tend to be skeptical of hope/fear dichomtomies like this.  But perhaps you are right.  


[ Parent ]
Well, In That Case (4.00 / 1)
you're going to want to read all three of his academic books on RWA in order, like I did.

That will make three of us.  Altmeyer. Me. And you.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
Slight disconnect (0.00 / 0)
Note that Paul's data is similar to what Mike brings up, but not exactly the same.  The data shows the Republican core responds strongly to fear.  That is not the same thing as Republicans promote fear more than Democrats, but provides strong evidence they should.

Of course, a "strong leader" also needs to come across as someone who can protect his followers.  So there is a hope element even to this fear.  "The world is a scary place.  Stand behind me and I'll protect you!"  (Read in deep, superhero voice.)

So I think the Hope vs Fear issue is close, but a near miss.  The way Mike describes it doesn't seem to be quite right, but almost, like a two circles in a Venn diagram that largely overlap or two vectors differing by 30°.


[ Parent ]
You're Right, It's Not The Same--It's The CAUSE (4.00 / 1)
Because RWAs respond to fear, those who seek to lead them appeal to fear.  (They also have poorer reasoning skills, and are more prone to commit the fundamental attribution error--as in judging politician's intentions by what they claim, while ignoring the motivations for what they're saying.  This leads Altemeyer to suggest that it makes RWAs easy marks, and attracts unscrupulous politicians to lead them.)

Altemeyer also points out that RWA is relatively weak compared to actual fear-inducing events--though only for a while.  9/11 shifted the political spectrum sharply to the right for a time, for example.  This indicates that interesting potential dynamic: Conservative leaders scare us with something or another (9/11, for example).  They come up with a "plan" that makes things worse, and causes more fear, and BINGO! They are rewarded for objective failure, because it's politically successful for them to keep people frightened.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
Overall, I agree. (4.00 / 1)
You're right about the progressive vision being based on hope and the conservative vision being based on fear. However, your nephew is also right about us using fear to defeat the right as the right uses hope to defeat us. Reagan's handlers were masterful in turning things upside down in the 1980s, and of course Bush's brains were masterful in selling fear as "patriotism" and trashing us as "Blame America First negative hippies".

Still, I think the 2008 election saw a return to the traditional roles of the left and the right in our nation's politics. During the primaries Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and all the other Dems were arguing over policies to better this nation, like health care, energy, and education. And the GOP? They were fighting over who could evoke 9/11 fear the most. And during the general election, the contrast couldn't be clearer when Obama was taking "Yes We Can" to a whole new level while McCain was grumbling "No I Can't".

Yes, Virginia, there are progressives in Nevada.


First, Define Your Terms (0.00 / 0)
Look at conservatism over the long haul, not merely as it has existed in the past few decades. Conservatism (at any moment in history) is best defined as a system of beliefs whose implementation results in greater concentrations of power, wealth, and social privilege for those already in possession of extraordinary power, wealth, and social privilege. Understood this way, conservatism is the fear of redistributing power, wealth, and privilege along more equitable lines. Liberalism, then, is the hope that the fair redistribution of power, wealth, and privilege will produce a more just, prosperous, sustainable, and democratic society. Temperamentally, liberalism is clearly more optimistic and hopeful than conservatism.

Fear of the "other" is what Republicans use. (0.00 / 0)
It's the use of bigotry and resentment.  It's the use by Nixon of the Orthogonians versus Franklins; of the regular guys and gals versus the snooty tooty intellectuals.  

I agree with Tom that the whole hope vs fear thing doesn't really work.  It's why I liked Edwards' use of hope.  The opposite of despair isn't hope.  It's action.  
And like Tom said,  the struggle for social democrats is to bring equality back into the three legged stool that holds up democracy that the French got right i.e. liberty, equality and fraternity (sorority).  


I think you need to go a little deeper. (0.00 / 0)
Conservatives basically think (with considerable evidence) that human beings are nasty, mean, grasping, self-centered critters whose evil nature needs to be controlled if human society is to survive.

Liberals admit (sometimes reluctantly) we may be all of the above, but believe we are also capable of goodness, generosity and courage for the sake of ourselves and the community. Maybe if we can just share enough of our hope, we'll be able to convert those fearful conservatives ...

Can it happen here?


Fear vs. Hope | 20 comments
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