The 2010 elections are still nineteen months away, and Al Franken still hasn't been seated following his victory in the 2008 Minnesota Senate campaign. However, today marks the start of Open Left's 2010 Senate forecast none the less.
The first 2010 forecast shows a net Democratic gain of 3-4 seats, moving the overall Democratic caucus total up from 59 (with Franken) to 62-63. Given that the Senate has consistently proven to be the biggest obstacle to progressive governance in D.C. this year, such gains are welcome news. Not all of the Democratic gains, such as New Hampshire, come from center-right Democrats, either.
My forecast methodology is the same as 2008: I will look at the polls, and nothing else. Campaigns where polling currently shows the incumbent party leading by over 10% will not be examined in detail.
Why stick with this methodology? For campaigns decided by less than 20%, and with more than two polls taken during the final week of the election, simple poll averaging has once again proven to be just as accurate at any other electoral forecasting methodology around. While simple poll averaging lacks the aura of authority provided by the statisticians at Pollster.com and fivethirtyeight.com, it provides an element of transparency those sites sometimes lack. Anyone can perform a simple average of recent polls, but only people with large databases and statistical training can do the sort of analysis conducted at Pollster.com and fivethirtyeight.com. So hey, if simple poll averaging works just fine in close elections with two or more polls, I don't see any reason to change.
The complete forecast, with a look at polling from 16 campaigns that are within single-digits, can be found in the extended entry.
Current Overall Picture: Democratic net gain of 3-4 Seats, for an overall total of 62-63.
Republican Held Seats Democratic Pickups: 3
Missouri (Republican held, Open)
The only polling from Missouri shows Democrat Russ Robin Carnahan ahead of Republican Roy Blunt by 3%, and ahead of Sarah Steelman by 8%. While this is hardly an insurmountable lead, it is important to note that this poll was commissioned by Steelman. As such, it is safe to say that Carnahan, who is officially a candidate, does starts the campaign with an advantage.
New Hampshire (Republican held, Open)
Democrat Paul Hodes starts the campaign for Judd Gregg's open seat with a 2-6% lead against potential Republican candidates Charlie Bass and John Sununu. However, this actually undersells the odds of Hodes winning the seat, given that he has launched his campaign and no top-tier Republican, such as Bass and Sununu, has done so. As such, it is likely that Democrats will pickup this seat in 2010.
Ohio (Republican Held, Open)
The only poll on Ohio is from Quinnipiac back in March. It shows all Democratic candidates leading all Republican candidates by between 5% and 10%. That is a great position for Democrats to start in, and makes for a third pickup according to current polling.
Toss-up: 3 (Democratic Pickups: 1-2)
Florida (Republican held, Open)
According to polling in Florida, the seat that Mel Martinez has chosen to vacate will either be a toss-up or a Republican landslide. The deciding factor is if Republican Governor Charlie Crist runs or not. Should he stay out, Democrats would have a good chance here.
Kentucky (Republican incumbent, Jim Bunning)
Polling released today by PPP shows all Democrats cruising against incumbent Jim Bunning. However, polling from Research 2000 two month ago shows the campaign virtually even. Further, Bunning might very well not be the Republican nominee, as many national Republicans want him out. If Secretary of State Trey Grayson ends up as the Republican nominee, both PPP and Research 2000 show the campaign to be very close, with Grayson either slightly ahead or slightly behind depending on the Democratic nominee. Since the status of the campaign will ultimately be determined by who the nominees for each party end up being, right now this campaign is listed as "toss-up," rather than leaning toward a Democratic-pickup.
Pennsylvania (Republican incumbent, Arlen Specter)
Like Kentucky, the outcome of this seat will be largely determined by the primaries. If Arlen Specter is the Republican nominee, then it is likely he wins the general election. If Pat Toomey wins the Republican nomination, then it is likely Democrats will pick up the seat. Both F&M and Research 2000 show Specter with a 15% lead in the Republican primary, though well under 50%. Quinnipiac, by contrast, already shows Toomey ahead by 14%, which would all but finish Specter before the campaign even started. A third possibility is that the general election becomes a three-way contest between Toomey, the Democratic nominee, and Specter as an Independent. In such a scenario, it is anyone's guess as to who wins.
Republican Hold: 4
Alaska (Republican incumbent, Lisa Murkowski)
Alaska isn't in danger of flipping to Democrats, but Republican incumbent Lisa Murkowski is in serious danger if Governor Sarah Palin decides she wants to move to Washington, D.C. Palin crushes Murkowski 55%-31% in the Republican primary according to the only poll on the campaign. The question here is whether Palin or Murkowshi ends up representing Alaska in D.C. alongside Democrat Mark Begich. While there is an outside shot that former Governor Tony Knowles could defeat Murkowski and take the seat for Democrats, Knowles has recently lost statewide campaigns to both Murkowski and Palin, making such an outcome highly unlikely.
Iowa (Republican incumbent, Charles Grassley)
A December Research 2000 poll showed Senator Grassley only 4% ahead of former Governor Tom Vilsack, 48%-44%. If Vilsack ran, this seat would instantly become a toss-up. However, given that Vilsack is now safely installed as a cabinet secretary in the Obama administration, it is unlikely that he will challenge Grassley. As such, this seat stays in "Republican Hold," despite the poll number.
Louisiana (Republican incumbent, David Vitter)
Research 2000 shows David Vitter under 50%, and two Democratic challengers within single-digits. Vitter also only leads by 11% in the Republican primary, according to the same poll. However, all of the Democratic and Republican challengers polled are only hypothetical at this point, as no serious candidate has decided to challenge D.C. Madam "Do You Know Who I Am?!" Vitter at this time. Given Vitter's scandals, this is one to keep an eye on, despite the decimation of the local Democratic base.
North Carolina (Republican incumbent, Richard Burr)
The two North Carolina polls available (see Research 2000 and PPP) both show incumbent Richard Burr ahead of any Democratic challenger by single-digit margins. Further, Burr is under 50%, making it tempting to move this campaign into "toss-up" territory. However, since no Democrats have announced yet, and since he does still lead three well-known, top potential Democrats, Burr still starts with an edge.
Democratic Held Seats Republican Pickups: 1
Connecticut (Democratic incumbent, Chris Dodd)
A recent Quinnipiac poll showed Chris Dodd tailing Republican challenger Bob Simmons by 16%, a deficit from which an incumbent simply cannot recover. While a Research 2000 poll from a few days earlier showed Dodd ahead by 5%, Quinnipiac has a much longer record of polling in the state. If you trust both polls, the pverage shows Dodd behind by 10.5%, and slightly under 40%. Those are atrocious numbers. Unless Dodd steps aside, or new polling is released showing the Q-poll to be a fluke, it is highly likely that Rob Simmons will be the next Senator from Connecticut.
Democratic Hold: 5
Arkansas (Democratic incumbent, Blanche Lincoln)
Democrat Blanche Lincoln leads the top potential Republican opponents by about 10% if she is faced with a top-tier challenger. While this does not put her in serious danger, it does show potential vulnerability. It is worth remembering that while most of the country shifted toward Democrats in 2008, Arkansas was one of the few states to move in the opposite direction.
Colorado (Democratic held, special election, Michael Bennet quasi-incumbent)
According to the only available poll, Bennet leads anti-immigrant and general racism advocate Tom Tancredo by 9%, but trails former Republican Govenror Bill Owens by 3%. In the uevent that Owens runs, this seat will move at least to a toss-up, and possibly to Republican pick-up territory. For now, it stays in "lean Democratic hold," because I consider Owens highly unlikely to run.
Illinois (Democratic held, special election, Roland Burris quasi-incumbent)
Roland Burris keeps this seat on the map. Now, there is no chance he will be the Democratic nominee, given that his primary support has dropped to only 5% in light of recent corruption charges. However, the various possible Democratic candidates only lead Republican Mark Kirk by single-digits. As such, if Kirk ends up the nominee, this one might be competitive. Roland and Rod screwed this one up for us.
New York (Democratic held, special election, Kirsten Gillibrand quasi-incumbent)
So far in 2009, no Senate campaign has been more heavily polled than New York. The two most recent polls (Siena and Quinnipiac) show Democrats cruising, except in the event of a Gillibrand-Pataki matchup, which is tied. However, the odds of Pataki running are low, and if Gillibrand emerges triumphant from a contested primary, her general election numbers will skyrocket. The decisive campaign will come in the Democratic primary, where Gillibrand still trails Representative Carolyn McCarthy by 4%, according to Quinnipiac. That will probably be a close, hard-fought campaign right down to the end.
Nevada (Democratic incumbent, Harry Reid)
A research 2000 poll from late November showed Harry Reid only up 6% on former Republican Representative Jon Porter. However, Porter has recently taken a job as a lobbyist, which is the sort of move politicians do to cash out before retirement, rather than run an uphill, populist campaign. Reid might end up being vulnerable anyway, but right now neither the candidate nor the confirming trial heat poll proving that have emerged.
If a campaign is not shown here, that is because either there is no poll on the campaign, or because there are no polls showing the incumbent party ahead by less than 11%. Polls with hypothetical candidates who are highly unlikely to run are not included.
