Andrew Bacevich Asks Congress If We Can Afford the "Long War"

by: ZP Heller

Sat Apr 25, 2009 at 10:32


This past week I covered the bold testimony of Ret. Cpl. Rick Reyes before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, drawing the comparison between Reyes's anti-war testimony and a young John Kerry alerting the nation to the horrors of the Vietnam War 38 years ago.  I certainly wasn't the only one to connect the dots between Vietnam and the current quagmire in Afghanistan, as you can see from this video with excerpts of Andrew Bacevich's testimony.

Bacevich, a retired Colonel who served in Vietnam and is now professor of International Relations and History at Boston University, has become one of the most vocal critics of the "Long War," as Defense Secretary Robert Gates dubbed the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.  Paraphrasing General Bruce Palmer's account of the Vietnam War, Bacevich said that our country is once again "mired in a protracted war of an indeterminate nature, with no foreseeable end to the US commitment."

The Long War, as Bacevich exclaimed, has become the second most expensive war in US history (second only to WWII).  Now that we our facing trillions in debt, Bacevich urged Congress to question the reasons for escalation in Afghanistan.  "We just urgently need to ask ourselves whether or not the purposes of the long war are achievable, necessary, and affordable," Bacevich claimed, "and Afghanistan is a subset of that longer set of questions."  Congress needs to address questions of cost before they vote on President Obama's $83 billion war funding bill in the coming weeks.  And the most direct way to follow Bacevich's lead and confront Congress is by calling your Representatives as soon as possible, urging them not to vote until we have more oversight hearings like these, and more questions answered.

ZP Heller :: Andrew Bacevich Asks Congress If We Can Afford the "Long War"
To me, putting Afghanistan in the context of the "Long War" is perfect, because it reclaims the frame first used by the Bush administration, lumping in the appallingly high economic and human costs of the deeply unpopular war in Iraq with the growing costs of operations in Afghanistan.  It's a far better frame for progressives to use than "war on terror," as Derrick Crowe pointed out in his scathing critique of why Center for American Progress's Lawrence Korb is wrong on Afghanistan.

Ironically, when I interviewed Bacevich a couple months ago, he was skeptical of seeing any oversight hearings because thus far there hadn't been any institutionalized effort to rein in the Long War.  That made it all the more gratifying to see Bacevich lead the charge this week before Congress.


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Maybe If Obama Was More The Pragmatist He Claimed To Be (4.00 / 4)
and less concerned with the schoolyard taunts of "looking weak" he could do the obvious, and take Bacevich's advice.

But no.  Instead he has to try to show that he can be as stupid as Bush, but in a smart way!

Thereby advancing the possibility that he's even dumber than Bush was.

This is what the fall of the Roman Empire was like: even when things seemed to get momentarily better, they were still getting worse.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


A withdrawal from Afghanistan would only further ruin the US reputation. (0.00 / 0)
So Obama is right in staying the course there. The US is still responsible for the mess Bush created, the 2008 election wasn't an absolution for that. And the people who suffer under the consequences of Bush's idiocy have an ethical claim for the US to repair the damage. Even more so since the US promised clear set reconstruction goals that haven't been met yet. And they can't be met if the security situation there deteriorates even more, which is inevitable if the US withdraw and leave the country for the Taliban to invade again.

Really, I'm surprised on the stance you show here, Paul. I can only guess you haven't really analysed this issue with all its consequences.


[ Parent ]
This Woulds Be Tedious On Cable (4.00 / 3)
Online, it's barely worth responding to.

The reputation for being able to learn from our mistakes would be one virtually without parallel in the world.

A reputation for brute force, stupidity, arrogance and pig-headedness?

Not so much.

Everyone since Alexander the Great who's tried your modest proposal has failed at it. That ought to mean something.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
Huh? What "modest proposal"? (0.00 / 0)
Afaics I didn't propose anything in the comment you're answering to. But, ok, I have a proposal what you can do with Alexander the Great, but I'm too polite to voicing it here!
:P

[ Parent ]
This is what's happening with the economy too (0.00 / 0)
This is what the fall of the Roman Empire was like: even when things seemed to get momentarily better, they were still getting worse.

But back to your point, I have serious doubts that the WH is even in control of DoD. The Af-Pak policy that we're seeing now is hardly different from what was proposed earlier by SECDEF Gates and others of the neo-con/neo-lib persuasion. The only real difference is that Petreus and Kilcullen have moved from Iraq to Afghanistan. So either Obama isn't in control, or he actually thinks all this Long War crap is somehow a good thing.

Indeed, a number of Obama's appointments to DoD thus far, including Michele Flournoy and others from New American Security, lead me to believe there's really no change in terms of DoD predominance in US foreign policy thus far.

http://www.king-george.biz/wst...

This is odd, because it's been clear for some time now and there's a lot of dissent among strategic thinkers that this is all just a waste of blood and treasure to prop up the "neo" fantasy of global dominance through force. Some even think its in our best interests to simply "refuse battle."

http://www.armedforcesjournal....

Steven Walt has some interesting things to say on this count as well:

http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/...

We have a largely deconstructed economy which is shrinking. We have astronomical deficits that depend on foreign interests for buying up all those bonds. Our currency is at risk. All this and we're supposed to cough up another couple Trillion dollars for this war in a place that has no real strategic importance to us? What makes Obama think this project is even doable, much less desirable?

This is just mind-numbingly stupid. So what's Obama's real political goal in all this? This is a question that should be answered.

"More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly." -Woody Allen, My Speech to the Graduates


[ Parent ]
Stinginess is not an argument. The US have to stand by their promises. (0.00 / 0)
And in the Afghanistan Compact agreements of 2006, the US promised lots of great things to the Afghan people that haven't been fulfilled yet. Hey, you broke it, you own it, remember? What kind of ethics is it to firstly start a war and then to leave the folks who helped you win it alone in their misery when you realize that the reconstruction takes longer and costs more than you thought? What kind of a concept of responsibility is that?

If you want to save taxpayer dollars, and end a long war, shut down the Iraq adventure first. And maybe after this we can speak again about Afghanistan.


So It' "Generous" To Ask Some Poor Slob To Be The Last American To Die For A Mistake In Afghanistan? (4.00 / 1)
Good to know!

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
So It's "Responsible" To Ask Some Million Afghans To Die For Bush's Mistakes? (0.00 / 0)
Interesting.

However, imho that's a bit lame way to answer my quite serious comment, Paul.


[ Parent ]
No One's Doing That (4.00 / 2)
All evidence indicates that many more will die if we stay there killing people.

You're simply arguing by dire assertion, just like Bush/Cheney.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
You're late to the discussion, and accuse me of arguing by "dire assertion"? (0.00 / 0)
That's rich. Don't you think you should firstly read all my comments, also those at the previous threat?

And who can prove appeasement will result in a lower bloodtoll? That argument was debunked 70 years ago! Instead, historical precedent makes it highly probable that the Taliban will conquer Afghanistan again in a civil war that will be a bloodbath for the population. That's historical evidence, not dire assertion!


[ Parent ]
"Appeasement," huh? "Debunked 70 years ago"? Are you making a connection (0.00 / 0)
between Hitler and the yokel tribes of Afghanistan? I certainly hope you are not. If you are, I encourage you to think again on the topic and to perhaps find better historical parallels.  

[ Parent ]
Of course not! (0.00 / 0)
I'm showing up the similarities between Afghanistan and Poland, not "between Hitler and the yokel tribes of Afghanistan". Because the Taliban are not a tribe, but a movement of fanatics. Feel free to come up with your own examples to show why appeasement is a great idea.

[ Parent ]
It's eerie just how your arguments parallel the arguments for staying the course (4.00 / 2)
in Vietnam. So Karzai was elected. Why then can't a President stop his "allies" from bombing his own country? Why then, after his complaints, is there grumbling in Washington about "replacing" Karzai because of "corruption"? Does all this sound familiar? Puppet regimes can never lead to a good end.

The Soviet Union had a better excuse than we do for their invasion. Their "allies" had a greater claim to being their own political body. It is a subtle dishonesty when you try to paint the Taliban as Pakistani. Maybe some are, but many are Afghan. And if they are Afghan, they come from the same population with the same values as our "allies." The threat of an outside foreign force always creates oppression internally. It is likely that our presence not only adds casualties, but makes the society more militant.


[ Parent ]
Well, who's powerful enough to influence the superpower US? (0.00 / 0)
There's much to criticize Karzai for, but there's also much to criticize his international allies for. And blaming the guy for not being able to influence US military decisions is ridiculous. Not even the Brits could enforce changes of US strategy and tactics.

And as for the Taliban, their recruitment centers are in Pakistan, so its a logical conclusion that most of their recruits will come from there. And this has been stated in countless news reports, too. If you have evidence to the contrary, pls show it.  


[ Parent ]
This mess is a product (4.00 / 2)
(at least partly) of how the Democratic Party opposed the Iraq War.  It was done while proclaiming Afghanistan as both just and good policy (even if the details were criticized.)  That embrace of Afghanistan was largely unexamined for its longer term policy and political implications.  

This is where the idea of Better Democrats comes in - too few are willing to ask these questions about a war that is based on nonsense like 'denying terrorists this country to plan in will disrupt their ability to strike.'  

These questions are unlikely to get asked in the Executive Branch or by traditional media. (This is both a criticism and a description.) Our representatives in Congress are equally responsible for this war - they must be called into account if they go along without challenging it. Thanks for keeping that idea front and center.


Politics is the art of the possible, but that means you have to think about changing what is possible, not that you have to accept it in perpetuity.


Well, indeed, David, the Dems are responsible, too. (0.00 / 0)
So, what are the consequences of this responsibility? Don't they have an obligation to repair this mess? Or do you want to say its ok to break something and then to run away???

[ Parent ]
You can't justify war (4.00 / 2)
because of earlier war.

No one here - let me repeat, no one here, said walk away. Let's talk about what people are actually saying, not what you imagine them to say. (No one is being "stingy" either - billions of dollars spent, the prospect of billions more, while making the situation worse, is madness, not stinginess.)

Platitudes that show up on signs in a Crate and Barrel cannot justify a war.

You think that continued war will improve the "security situation" and reduce terrorism, and allow for reconstruction. I think you have it backwards.  I have said that repeatedly.  We are not disagreeing about goals - we are disagreeing about means. My position is rooted in what we know about terrorism, war and occupations.  You have discounted this based on your insistence (which no one has disputed) that the Taliban are bad - which while true, doesn't tell us anything about the likely consequences of continued war / occupation or its end.  

I don't believe there is an option that is good, where the "mess" is "repaired." The best options are only better than the alternatives, and will help Afghanistan recover from decades of war and destruction.  Continued war cannot do that, especially when the very presence of American troops fuels terrorism in that country and the surrounding areas.

Politics is the art of the possible, but that means you have to think about changing what is possible, not that you have to accept it in perpetuity.


[ Parent ]
too late for that argument. YOU started the war. YOU are responsible. (0.00 / 0)
And now its YOUR (the US) responsibility to present a plan on how to create peace there.

So far, you, David, have only presented some foggy ideas about the absence of US forces magically creating peace. Well, sry, but that's not good enough. You can't expect the Afghan peopel to bet their fate and their lifes on such a firy tale. If there is something to your plan, you at least have to present it with all the details, so it can be scrutinized. Well, I'm waiting...

Bt, pls don't confuse my comments aimed at ZP and those where I adress your comments. I noticed that your stances are a bit different, and I conmgratulate you for being not as stingy as ZP, who seems only to care about his taxdollars. Nevertheless, both of you haven't produced anything conclusively about the future of Afghanistan after a withdrawal. Again, that's not good enough.


[ Parent ]
No I didn't. (4.00 / 1)
I didn't start any war - I never supported it either. Nor did I say that peace would be magically created.

You are the one that says peace is the baseline to judge things.  No one else here has suggested that peace will come merely because of withdrawal.  

There are two options with respect to war - end our role or continue it. Ending it improves things, continuing it makes it worse. Neither leads automatically to peace. Ending our role in the war holds out the possibility of getting closer to peace in the very long term, because it means we are no longer making the situation worse. The situation will only improve through political means.

I repeat - prior war does lead to responsibility for it's consequences, but it can't justify further war.

I appreciate your distinguishing mine from others arguments, but I still disagree that anyone is being stingy for not wanting to spend billions to make things worse.

Politics is the art of the possible, but that means you have to think about changing what is possible, not that you have to accept it in perpetuity.


[ Parent ]
I understand you're a US citizen? Right or wrong, your country! (0.00 / 0)
So, sry, in a democracy you can't simply shrug off your part of the collective guilt. As a German citizen, I think I have a good standing to tell you that. In commentosphere discussions, people hold me accountable for atrocities that happened decades before my birth.

As for the peace question, you're right, I got carried away and misstated your position. However, the question about the consequences fo a US withdrawal is still a valid one. And once again you evade it, fleeing into theoretical considerations. But as a proponent of the US leaving the country, you sure must have some ideas about what will happen. So, come on, seriously now, what will happen in Afghanistan after the US forces left? You must at least have some vague picture in mind!


[ Parent ]
Collective guilt (4.00 / 1)
was an essential element of what caused the Holocaust and WWII. I've never felt the German response was the right one - better to oppose collective guilt and commit yourself to stand for certain principles, than to try to engage in it for better ends. If I was ever with you when you got blamed for actions you did not undertake, I would have defended you. I don't accept collective guilt.

Regardless, I think that continuing the war makes things worse - so my position wasn't based on not sharing guilt. And I do accept responsibility flowing from being a citizen - responsibility for what happens now, not guilt for the past.

My position is not more theoretical less pragamtic than yours - I have no idea how you imagine continuing the war will lead to peace.

What will happen? Well, for one thing, the number of suicide bombings will likely drop to close to zero.  That helps. Two, the government in Kabul will have a pretty serious incentive to try to engage everyone in the country politically, something they do not have now. In addition, it becomes harder for the Taliban and Al Qaeda to recruit, and makes it harder for them to build legitimacy through attacking US imperialism. This might reduce public support for those groups, which would reduce their power.

In the long run, those who are fighting might decide it's better to engage in politics rather than fight. I'm not talking about hard core supporters - I'm talking about the support their effectiveness depends on.  If they don't decide to do that, than the situation remains a mess.  There is no plausible scenario where it ends in militarily rather than politically.  If they lose public support, then a more law enforcement (think FBI not NYPD) approach can deal with the rump that's left of those groups - but that can't work while they maintain public support (which need not be a majority, just substantial.)

Talking about what will happen in much greater detail is misleading. I won't pretend to have greater forecasting abilities - but I won't accept anyone who else claiming that they do either.  

Politics is the art of the possible, but that means you have to think about changing what is possible, not that you have to accept it in perpetuity.


[ Parent ]
Thx for the effort! However, lots of flaws in the reasonsing. (0.00 / 0)
"Well, for one thing, the number of suicide bombings will likely drop to close to zero."
Uh, no, probably not. Many of the bombings (afaik there are much more "traditional" bombings than "suicide" ones) were directed against Karzai's government. These will continue, maybe increase.

"Two, the government in Kabul will have a pretty serious incentive to try to engage everyone in the country politically, something they do not have now."
Karzai will have to flee, and most officials too. They have lost all backing among the strongmen, and among most of the population. And they are a red flag for the taliban. There's no way this government could survive.

"In addition, it becomes harder for the Taliban and Al Qaeda to recruit, and makes it harder for them to build legitimacy through attacking US imperialism."
Remember, they are a movement of religious fanatics. And they conquered Afghanistan before. They didn't have recruitment problems in the 90s, why should they have them now?

"In the long run, those who are fighting might decide it's better to engage in politics rather than fight."
Afghanistan doesn't have any historical political experience. And most of the educated elite have fled or where killed. The average guy knows the Quaran, armed fighting, and maybe a simple profession, but nothing about politics. The warlords see politics as a game of intrigue, assasination, and armed force. Under these circumstances, any peaceful political solution without an active arbiter from outside is totally unrealistic.

So, this leaves the one outcome you also foresee, too: A mess. Only that it will be a bloody mess, a horrible civil war, like the last time the Taliban conquered Afghanistan. Much worse than if the US would stay and continue to police the land. And that is something you, with your pacifist ideals, can live with? Doesn't matter, as long as the US isn't involved? Tell that to the Afghan people! In person, if possible.


[ Parent ]
Oh, and as for the billions that could be saved - how do you compute this? (0.00 / 0)
Imho it would cost even more if the US leave and want to compensate their terminated military engagement with payments and arms deliveries to the warlords. How do you come to your diffent conclusion?

[ Parent ]
Spoken Like A True Republican! (0.00 / 0)
"Oh Noes!  We can't just cut and run!"

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
Come on, Paul, no ad hominem attacks! (0.00 / 0)
You know damn well that I'm no rethuglican.

[ Parent ]
If The Shoe Fits (0.00 / 0)
I don't acquit.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
Oh, and may I rmeind you that the Afghan war was authorized with huge Dem support? (0.00 / 0)
It's a different case than Iraq, where we can argue that the Dem support was based on the phony intelligence that the Bush crooks presented. That's not the case regarding Afghanistan. Both parties are repsonible for that. No matter how you try to connect this with rethuglican slogans, but in this case "cut and run" really means running away from responsibility. And that would ruin US reputation for the next eight years. "Cut and run" Obama wouldn't be welcome at his NATO allies, engaged in Afghanistan, any more.

[ Parent ]
Btw, can you explain a withdrawal szenario that doesn't hurt your Afghan allies, pls? (0.00 / 0)
Really, ZP, after all your pro-withdrawal stories recently, I think it's really about time that you go into details and explain how you think a peaceful Afghanistan can be accimplished with the Afghan allies there being left on their own! Remember what happened to the pro-US Vietnamese after 1975! And the US didn't even have sufficient reason to get involved there. But in Afghanistan, they had reason to invade, and they were only successful because the northern tribes there did the hardest part of the fighting!

Don't you think the US have some obligations to these allies? Is it ok for you to simply leace them alone and pay ahorrible bloodtoll in the defensive fight against the advancing Taliban? Or do you have a really sophisticated idea how to secure the country without any US involvement - and without US taxdollars being spent? Shoot!


Gray (0.00 / 0)
I'm done having a discussion with you on this.  You're either calling people names, or accusing them of making arguments they didn't make, or refusing to address any evidence or arguments offered, or attacking people's imagined motives, or engaging in the worst kind of egregious stereotyping of whole peoples.  

I'm perfectly content to disagree with anyone on just about anything, and I don't consider myself all knowing on this or any other topic, but this just isn't productive.



Politics is the art of the possible, but that means you have to think about changing what is possible, not that you have to accept it in perpetuity.


Thank you! Imho its pointless to discuss this with you any further, too. (0.00 / 0)
Because all those comments have shown that your main agument is that pacifist solutions are always preferrable, even when faced with an armed and violent enemy, a theory that was already debunked 70 years ago. And then, you obviously don't have followed the news about the situation there very closely. In this regard, its more satisfying to argue with EnglishLefty, who adds some verifiable points to the discussion.

However, I'm sry that you think I crossed a line and became too personal. Maybe I got carried a way a bit because of rising frustration about the "missing beef" in your arguments. But imho I tried my best to address your evidence and arguments, and the motive I attacked harshly was the desire to save US taxdollars at the expense of the Agfghan people, and it was ZP who brought this up.

Well, ok, let's leave it at that. And, honestly, David, have a nice day. Let's not become enemies just because of a disagreement on US foreign policy.


[ Parent ]
63% of Americans support the Afghanistan surge (0.00 / 0)
# Story Highlights
# Sixty-three percent say they support sending 17,000 more U.S. troops
# Support is twice as much as 2007 plan for surge in Iraq had
# Forty-seven percent say they support the Afghanistan war
# President Obama expected to announce Iraq withdrawal plan Thursday

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/PO...

Contrary to the impression readers may get from the comments here, it looks like I'm not really alone in supporting an increased effort to repair the Afghanistan mess instead of withdrawal that would be an appeasement to the Taliban. Just as a reminder.


So (0.00 / 0)
16% support sending more troops to a war they don't support.

Good company to keep.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
I'm just saying someone has to provide some balance by arguing against withdrawal here! (0.00 / 0)
Of course, I don't endorse those who obviously can't make their mind up. I think those 16% show some weird opinions, too.

But is that all that you have to say to this, this lame attempt of producing guilt by association? Your arguing skills have sunk very low recently, Paul. Just compare your unter the beltline punches to the real arguments Englishlefty came up with in the previous threat...


[ Parent ]
hmmm... (0.00 / 0)
Same numbers as Obama's approval rating. I'm wondering if we're handing off too much trust if there's is a correlation or if it is just loyalty, he-knows-best, strategic chess moves thing.  

[ Parent ]
That's a valid question. (0.00 / 0)
And I'm sure that at least part of the support for reinforcing the Afghanistan troops is based on trust in president Obama. But then, can you blame people for rightly believing that Obama is smarter and better informed than them?

[ Parent ]
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