Another Giant Leap

by: Chris Bowers

Fri May 01, 2009 at 15:28


( - promoted by Chris Bowers)

It now seems likely that NASA will delay the Moon base it had been directed to construct by the Bush administration:

NASA will probably not build an outpost on the moon  as originally planned, the agency's acting administrator, Chris Scolese, told lawmakers on Wednesday. His comments also hinted that the agency is open to putting more emphasis on human missions to destinations like Mars or a near-Earth asteroid.

As a believer in the value of space exploration, I find this announcement a little sad. However, it also has the potential to be a positive, since it could help re-order our priorities away from exploration for its own sake and toward improving our space-based infrastructure. We do eventually need a Moon base, but we need that base to be useful rather than just reprising our exploratory glory days.

Long-term, the best potential use of a Moon base or bases would be as operational facilities of massive solar power plants. It is entirely possible to build a series of Luna-based solar power plants capability of collectively producing 130 terawatts of power every year (yes, I am serious). Currently, as a species we produce only 15-16 terawatts of electricity a year. The advantage of such a power plant include:

  1. Vast space to continually, and slowly, expand the plants, as per our needs, over years and decades.

  2. The ability to collect solar energy every hour of every day, as long two power plant centers are placed on opposite sides of the Moon.

  3. With a proper satellite component, the system as a whole would have the ability to send this energy back to anywhere on Earth, anytime of day.
In other words, once such a series of power plants was in place, they could provide the entire Earth with cheap, 100% renewable, carbon neutral electricity, no matter the weather or time of day, for the entire existence of our species.

Not bad. Also, unfortunately, not tomorrow, given the expense and technological problems. However, there are steps we can be taking to build the space infrastructure that would make such an incredibly useful Moon base feasible in as little time as twenty years. Instead of a Moon-base, or a series of manned missions to Mars or Ceres, there are three key aspects of space infrastructure that should be receiving our most far-reaching space funding.

More in the extended entry.

Chris Bowers :: Another Giant Leap
Here is what we should be building before a Moon base:

  1. Developing space-based solar power: Given that both Japan and PG&E are already both investing in it, space-based solar power is on the verge of turning into a new, practical, profitable low-orbit industry. There are still technical issues, so we should provide public funding to make sure that it turns into a realty sooner rather than later.

  2. Cleaning up space debris: If we are going to start producing huge amounts of space and Moon-based solar power, much less maintain the vital space infrastructure already in place, then we have to start cleaning up the space debris that is collecting in low-Earth orbit. Any vision for future space travel and / or infrastructure is threatened by the rising amount of space debris, so cleaning it up is absolutely necessary. There are some ideas on how to do this, but much more work is needed.

  3. Building a space elevator: The final piece of the puzzle for a massive Moon-based power plant will be the construction of a space elevator that would reduce the costs of leaving Earth's atmosphere by more than 10,000%. Such a reduction in costs would make all space-based projects, whether exploratory or infrastructure based, 100 times less expensive. As far off as a space elevator may seem to some, Japan has actually started the early stages of planning one, and some experts believe it could be constructed in less than 15 years.
These three pieces of space infrastructure form a positive feedback loop with one another. Space-based solar power could operate the elevator from start to finish. By dramatically lowering launch costs, a space elevator would make existing ideas for cleaning up space debris feasible. Finally, cleaning up space debris would make both a space elevator and space-based solar power plants much safer over the long-term.

This would, of course, be expensive and technologically challenging. However, it probably be no more expensive or difficult than a manned mission to Mars or Ceres. Better yet, it would leave us (that is, humanity) with a sturdy infrastructure that would make all future space-based projects very cheap, including both the nearly infinite expansion of renewable power production, and also manned expeditions to Mars or Ceres.

Now, it doesn't surprise me that no politician is really pushing the idea, given both that it probably sounds a bit crackpot, and also because it lacks the pizzazz of manned exploration. Still, such an expansion of our space-based infrastructure really does hold the potential for yet another giant step for all of humanity. Let's start thinking about space in terms of improving our infrastructure, rather than just as exploration for its own sake.


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Another Giant Leap | 33 comments
While I agree with your conclusions... (0.00 / 0)
I'm not clear that building power plants on the moon have an advantage against space-based solar power. It seems that the only advantage the article you reference mentions is that there may be sufficient materials on the moon to build the equipment with wholly (or mostly) local materials.

That's a pretty big advantage! (0.00 / 0)
But the infrastructure required to get to that point is huge.

[ Parent ]
Yes. (0.00 / 0)
For example, you'd have to mine the material. Then you'd have to smelt, it, process it, then actually produce the materials.

Finally, you'd have to actually start to make the products, starting with the devices to make the solar panels, integrated circuits, etc.

By the referenced theory, all of this work would be done on the moon. However, it doesn't sound like the work of a small moon base; it sounds like the work of a pair of Lunar cities.


[ Parent ]
Which is why we need to start now (4.00 / 1)
It is a long-term project, but it offers permanent long-term solutions, not to mention many side benefits, to some of the biggest issues facing humanity.

[ Parent ]
NO. No space based ray gins aimed at earth. (0.00 / 0)
Not ever, no way, ain't going to happen.

--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky


[ Parent ]
I support space gin, but not space gun. Sorry for the confusion. (4.00 / 1)


--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky


[ Parent ]
A moon "laser"? (4.00 / 1)
Called the Alan Parson Project?

What would it cost?



REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


[ Parent ]
..on the floor laughing.. (4.00 / 1)


--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky


[ Parent ]
Low Orbit solar collectors? (0.00 / 0)
I always assumed these would be geosynchronous.  Keeping a low orbit satellite properly aimed seems difficult, and despite the claims to the contrary, dangerous.  Plus, you would need many receiver stations positioned across the globe to get the desired energy output, which certainly doesn't help any local power company.

You could do better than geosynchronous (0.00 / 0)
It would probably make more sense to place the thing at the Earth-Sun Lagrange point, where it would be exposed to solar radiation 100% of the time.  Then, you could bounce the collected energy off of a geosynchronous satellite, or simply only beam energy during the day.  

But still, putting a solar collector somewhere where it can only work half of the time seems to be really wasteful.


[ Parent ]
A power plant on the moon? (0.00 / 0)
Have we already forgotten the tragedy of September 13th, 1999?




REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


Wow (4.00 / 1)
That dude looks like me. Makes the video really hit home :)

[ Parent ]
Funny (4.00 / 1)
I was actually looking up Space: 1999 clips the other day.  If I remember correctly, it was a similar conversation that got me started.

When I was a kid, I'd get into debates with a friend of mine over which was better, Space: 1999 or Star Trek.  I think time was come down on my side on the pro Star Trek side.

But remember, the problem on Moon Base Alpha was storage of toxic nuclear waste, not moon-based power production.


[ Parent ]
Getting it back to Earth not quite so easy... (4.00 / 1)
Back in the late '70s, there was an idea to put huge solar arrays in space (or maybe it was nuclear reactors...) and beam the energy back to Earth via microwave.  A huge drawback from a technology perspective was that it was (is?) difficult to sufficiently focus a microwave beam over the distances involved, resulting in serious leakage and exposure of the population near the ground-based receiving stations to fairly high levels of microwave radiation.

FWIW,  there is probably enough wind energy just in the upper midwest to provide for a huge chunk of our current electricity needs.  Add in the potential from offshore generation, and we have tremendous resources right here on Earth that can be tapped for far less than Moon-based facilities.  The biggest obstacles are getting the energy from the remote sites to population centers, but this could be solved by upgrading the transmission grid, something Obama would like to do.

Finally, a professor at Portland State University has designed and patented a "personal wind generator" that  consists of a vertical-axis windmill powering a car alternator.  Cost to produce is ~$100.  No word on how much energy it produces, but we could put these things on residences, apartment buildings, office buildings, bridges far more cheaply than building structures on the moon.


MASER (4.00 / 1)
Given the maser was invented before the laser, this is hard to believe.  I don't think they even need that narrow of a beam to work correctly.  Certainly aiming the thing correctly could be hard, historically, but given today's computers I don't see much of an issue.

[ Parent ]
One thought nagging at me... (0.00 / 0)
One inevitable byproduct of energy utilization is heat.  In this case, while it's not being given off by the burning of fossil fuels, it will be from friction, motion, light, what have you.

130 Terawatts, I imagine, will contribute nearly as much to warming the planet as CO2 does presently.  So don't be quick to trumpet a Lunar power generation station as a cure for Global Warming.   View it instead as a means to eliminate CO2 as a greenhouse gas by eliminating its industrial sources of production here on Earth.  We'll still have to deal with the heat produced from the energy generation, and I look with great interest at any ideas on how that may be addressed...


Scale (0.00 / 0)
It would actually only increase the amount of solar energy coming to earth by about 0.08%. While I don't know for certain, I'm pretty sure that the CO2 is would save would generate a much higher temperature increase than that.

[ Parent ]
Ther problem with carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is heat retention. (0.00 / 0)
All those loverly molecules hold heat, and very much better thjan oxegen or nitrogen or ozone. Anothe chemical that retains heat is methane. In facty methane holds I think an order of magnitude more than CO2. Thats the problem with escaping methane from the melting tundra of Siberia. The methan has been held in the soil for hundreds of thousands of years, now its all going to come out at once.

The best way top think of carbon in the atmosphere is as a quilt. Or greenhouse of course. More sun energy every second and less and less being bounced back into space.

--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky


[ Parent ]
global warming is not due to the thermal energy generated (0.00 / 0)
by converting petrochemicals to heat.  The total energy consumption of all humans, throughout all of history is a tiny, tiny fraction of the thermal energy in the atmosphere.  Consider that (if we take the average temperature of the Earth to be about 20 degrees celsius), the energy that the Earth radiates out into space via blackbody radiation is equal to roughly 5*10^16 Watts.  Humans burning petrochemicals can't begin to put a dent in numbers that large.

Where global warming comes into play is that the C02 emissions are changing the chemical content of the atmosphere, which, in turn, changes the rate at which the Earth radiates energy out into space.  


[ Parent ]
All good points... (0.00 / 0)
...and yes, I know Global Warming, at least as it exists today, is caused through the accumulation of certain gases in the atmosphere that act to enhance the retention of solar radiation and its accompanying heat.

Your figures and Chris's (in his reply to my original post) make me feel a little better about a Lunar power generation project.  The numbers seemed huge, until I read your figures on what the Earth radiates naturally, and in that I can see there is less for concern than I thought.

thanks... (goes off to tape some cow mouths and plug some cow arses)


[ Parent ]
Lunar elecricity is not practically transmissible to Earth (4.00 / 1)
I don't think there is a practical way of getting solar energy from the Moon's surface to Earth. But that's OK. We'll need that power on the moon, because the moon will be the mining/smelting/manufacturing powerhouse of the future. I'm sure that lunar manufacturing will be able to swallow all the power we throw at it.

What's great is that it's very easy to get the stuff we make on the moon into lunar orbit. All you need is a modest railgun. In the meanwhile, the real progress in colonizing space is still waiting for the field of robotics to catch up. Once we have rugged robots that are able to do mining, construction and manufacturing with only remote (and laggy) control. Some of what they do would be done autonomously.

I think this (advanced manufacturing robotics) should be NASA's #1 priority - that and telescopes. We have no business on the moon until we're able to start a robot-run factory there... to produce more robots and solar cells. Most of the robotics research can be done here on Earth, and I think it will have more useful spinoffs than the Apollo program if done right. It might also finally bring back some manufacturing into the US (though not manufacturing jobs - but it's still better than nothing). This is how I would use a big chunk of the stimulus: Manufacturing robotics.


Looks like a weapon (4.00 / 2)
Anytime you convey a lot of energy towards a small spot on Earth, you have a potential weapon. And if there is potential, then the military will be very excited to develop it. So if we build space or moon-based solar collectors and try to beam it back to Earth, there will probably be a new weapon there too.

Who will control this weapon?


This was going to be my main point. (4.00 / 1)
This doesnt look like a weapon it is a terawatt microwave ray gun aimed at Moscow, noo noo I mean Peking, no no Caracus nooooo Brazillia.

There is no fucking way this is going to be allowed.

Windmills on the ground. This is a good idea.

1.5 million of them acropss the country, no no 3 million.

If a terrorist blows one up, unless you are standing under it, does it even make a sound?

Safety first, and the decentralization of power.

POWER must be decentralized. I dont think it needs to be said, but that includes power generation and ownership.

All power generation by townships and cities!!!

2 and half cents yes. But I will fight you on this tooth and nail.

Safety, decentralization and ecological balance.

--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky


[ Parent ]
Space elevator (4.00 / 1)
I'm somewhat skeptical of space-based solar energy collection.

I have no doubt that building a space elevator would be a game-changing event in the history of mankind and would transform our relationship with outer space.  Rather than an earthbound species that occasionally fires up a rocket, this would mark the beginning of our commitment as a species to think beyond our current planet, to get serious about eventually becoming a space-faring species.  It would be on a par with the building of the first sailing ships.

Wouldn't it be nice to bequeath our children and grandchildren at least one thing that we could be proud of?


cheap access to orbit (4.00 / 1)
i'd redefine that 3rd point more broadly and move it up in priority. it's what enables the first two options (well, the cleanup isn't an option, really, we have to do it), plus all the other things that we don't consider now because it costs too much to climb that hill.

absolutely an elevator would be great. but you will always need flexible transportation, to go to random point B from random-ish Earth location A. and honestly, you need something better than lighting a fire under your ass and saying a prayer to get into orbit to build it to begin with.

i would trade that "space station" and most of the Shuttles easily for 10 years of solid funding for unmanned missions and boosting cheaper orbital options. NASA has shown no signs of being able to do the latter, while they shine on the former. let them do what they're good at. throw some money at the aerospace bigs in exchange for being able to get rid of some of our military aerospace overkill. even if the total budget doesn't shrink at all, that kind of exchange has a much bigger benefit for the country.

also: people already think that cell phone towers are giving them brain fungus or whatever. no matter what the facts are, there is going to be a vocal slice of people who freak out at the idea of beaming microwaves from orbit. i really don't know how PG&E plans to deal with that. have the political clout to ignore them, i guess.

not everything worth doing is profitable. not everything profitable is worth doing.


Yes that is the key (0.00 / 0)
Elevator, fountain, maglev launch, orbit and return whatever the technology that does the job best. Once we start to get a handle on cost then the possibilities become limitless.

I think you downplay the importance of a manned presence, but I would expect it would develop alongside the transportation infrastructure just as on earth.


[ Parent ]
mens in space (0.00 / 0)
i didn't mean to downplay it except maybe in a short-term sense. we need to be able to afford to have people go to orbit to go to work. not just be there to be there. i'd be leery of trading definitely halting manned flight now for maybe promises of investment in better tech later, for sure.

not everything worth doing is profitable. not everything profitable is worth doing.

[ Parent ]
Units (4.00 / 1)
Not to be pedantic, but a "watt" is a "Joule/second". The unit already has time in the denominator, so it doesn't make sense to talk about power usage in terms of "terawatts per year".

130 terawatts, distributed evenly over the surface of the Earth, amounts to 0.25 Watts per square meter, roughly one-tenth of the heat energy trapped by greenhouse gases put into the atmosphere by humans. If this power were beamed to an area 200 miles x 200 miles in size, it would match the power of incoming solar energy. If it were beamed to an area the size of Washington, DC, it would be more than 500 times the energy of the Sun, which sounds like a bad idea to me.

From a futuristic energy source perspective, I think we're much better off spending the research money getting fusion energy working. We'll need it in the long term, regardless.


A little hand-waving... (4.00 / 1)
Transmitting that much energy to Earth is no joke. Unless you have some sort of receiving station that is hundreds of square miles, you're going to burn a hole in the Earth's crust or something.

Also, there are lunar eclipses twice a year, so it's not quite 24-7-365...

The 130 TW number comes from assuming we can collect 1% of the solar energy hitting the Moon. That's, frankly, insane.

I'll be generous and say we shoot for 13 TW instead, and we'll pretend we can afford to use solar cells that are 40% efficient (roughly the current record for experimental cells). The surface area of the moon is 3.8e7 square kilometers. We'd need to cover 0.25% (0.1%/40%) of that to collect 0.1% of the solar energy, or 95,000 square kilometers of solar cells.

Or we can look at just the cost of solar panels. We're starting to see them get into the $1 per watt range, so the math is easy. $130 trillion dollars worth of solar cells. And remember, transportation costs to the moon would be many times higher than the cost of whatever you're sending there.

Building the cells there doesn't really solve the problem. Transporting all the industry there is an even bigger project.

Saying we should "get started now" on something like this is akin to saying "we should get started terraforming Mars".

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!


Uh, "on opposite sides of the moon"? Really??? (0.00 / 0)
Excuse me pls, but the moon always shows the same side to the sun!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M...

A solar power plant on the opposite side would be constantly in the dark. And I don't think it would make much economical sense to create two solar plants just for coping with the rare occurences of partial lunar eclipse. However, it may be a good idea to have two bases, so that there is always a safe harbor in case of emergency (meteor strike).  


I understand you post-Pink-Floyd folks are a bit handicapped at this! (0.00 / 0)
We elderly guys who remember the brouhaha about Pink Floyd's "The Dark Side Of The Moon" are more likely to know this fact, of course!
:D  

[ Parent ]
Damn, total nonsense, I'm an idiot. (0.00 / 0)
Of course, the moon always shows the same side to the earth, not the sun. And even the Wikipeida article I linked correctly stated: "The far side is often inaccurately called the "dark side," but in fact, it is illuminated exactly as often as the near side: once per lunar day, during the new moon phase we observe on Earth when the near side is dark."

What can i say - that was dumb dumb dumb. Well, I'll stop commenting for today and instead enjoy the sun outside. Seems to be the better plan for today.
8-(


[ Parent ]
Another Giant Leap | 33 comments
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