What will the electorate look like in twenty years? This is a question I have set out to answer this week, with a series of articles forecasting future demographic trends in the American electorate. Using historical voting data, exit polls, and population projections from the census, it is actually possible to develop a detailed and reasonably accurate view of what the electorate will look like from 2012-2032.
First, here are the projections for race / ethnicity as a percentage of the electorate, from 2012-2032:
Projected Race / Ethnicity % of Electorate, Presidential Elections 2012-2032
| Group |
2008 |
2012 |
2016 |
2020 |
2024 |
2028 |
2032 |
| White |
74% |
72% |
71% |
70% |
68% |
65% |
63% |
| Black |
13% |
14% |
12% |
13% |
13% |
13% |
14% |
| Latino |
9% |
10% |
11% |
12% |
14% |
15% |
16% |
| Asian |
2% |
2% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
4% |
4% |
| Other |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
(Numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding)
The overall trend is pretty clear: the white percentage of the electorate is decreasing, while the Latino percentage rising rapidly (plus slower rises within the Asian community, and a slow, uneven rise within the African-American community). There is nothing revelatory or controversial about this, given that the self-identified "white" share of the electorate has already dropped from 87% in 1992 to 74% in 2008. This table actually forecasts a slightly slower rate of decline for the white percentage of the electorate over the next twenty-four years (-11%) than was witnessed during the previous 24 years (-12% since 1984). This difference is primarily due to exceptionally high African-American turnout for President Obama in 2008 (for the first time ever, in 2008 African-Americans turned out at slightly higher percentages than whites), which I forecast will repeat in 2012 but then revert to a normal pattern of growth in 2016 based on 2004 turnout numbers.
I will have more on this projection later today, but for now here are some salient points to consider:
- Voter Turnout Will Rise Indefinitely: One thing I noticed while constructing these charts is that it is highly likely voter turnout will continue to rise for the foreseeable future. Every indication points toward increasing voting. As the population ages, it will vote more often. As the population ages, crime will be reduced, and the voting ineligible population will drop. (Many states are rolling back voting restrictions on ex-felons, too). As the country (hopefully) becomes more prosperous per capita, it will vote more often. As a higher percentage of the Latino and Asian resident communities become citizens and native-born, turnout rates will increase among those groups. Overall, it is highly likely that voter turnout is on a long-term, one-way, upward growth pattern.
- Obama Coalition now equal to Reagan's. A look at the race / ethnicity cross-tabs from 1984 shows that Reagan would have won by 8% in 2012 according to his levels of support among each racial / ethnic group. For the sake of comparison, in 2012 Obama will win by 9% if he maintains his 2008 level of support in each racial / ethnic group. As such, demographic shifts have now made Obama's coalition the equal of Reagan's.
- Republicans can stay competitive with 2004 Bush coalition: For the next twenty years, Presidential elections will be decided by 1% or less if Republicans can rebuild the 2004 Bush coalition. However, that still means they must return to their peak performance of the last twenty years just to stay competitive during the next twenty years. That is not a good forecast for them.
As I said, later this afternoon I will follow-up this post with more data. Also, every day this week I will examine the future of the electorate from another demographic perspective (religion tomorrow). The data used to make these projections can be downloaded in an Excel file here. |
