Drawing A Line On Residual Forces In the Primaries

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 19:07


In response to the occasional, though still persistent, calls for the blogosphere to line up behind either Barack Obama or John Edwards in an attempt to defeat Hillary Clinton for the nomination, last week Matt wrote something with which I absolutely agree (emphasis in original):

I know lots of people want the grand netroots to make our grand endorsement of the one true Presidential candidate and thereby rock the foundations of the universe, but, um, speaking only for every person who has ever blogged, ever, anywhere, I'll point out that by and large I don't want to endorse someone who wants to keep troops in Iraq.

The issue of residual forces in Iraq looms extremely large for many of the bloggers I know, which I think is entirely understandable. Especially in a Democratic primary. why on earth would I line up behind a candidate as the "progressive" choice if he or she wants to keep American troops in Iraq? There is no way to end the Iraq war as long as there are American troops on Iraqi soil. No matter whether our troops in Iraq are combat or non-combat, they will be targets, and the war will continue. It really is as simple as that. Ending the Iraq war is, and has been for a number of years, my top "issue" in politics. So why on earth would I, in a primary election, when the whole point is to fight for what you believe instead of choosing the lesser of two evils, line up behind a candidate espousing a policy that is contrary to my most important issue? I mean, I became a full-time political activist largely because of the Iraq war, and I am not going to choose a path in a primary election  that runs counter to my beliefs on this matter. I think a lot of other bloggers feel exactly the same way.

Given this, Josh Marshall's interview with John Edwards today is extremely important, especially the part from 0:40 to 1:30 at the start of the interview:

Here is the relevant section, from a question that it appears only bloggers are able to ask:

MARSHALL: Now, you've talked about potentially a small residual force. Can you give people a sense of what that means?

EDWARDS: I would get all of our combat troops out. Assuming that we are going to maintain our embassy in Baghdad, we'll have to have some force to protect our embassy. We always have to have that. And if, if, there are American humanitarian workers there, it might be necessary, although I wouldn't commit to this at this point, it might be necessary to provide some protection for them. But that's it.

MARSHALL: But really just a matter of protecting the embassy, possibly protecting other US  civilian personnel--

EDWARDS: who are doing humanitarian work.

Is this different from Obama and Clinton? As I show once again in the extended entry, absolutely.

Chris Bowers :: Drawing A Line On Residual Forces In the Primaries
Clinton:

(1) That a phased redeployment of United States military forces from Iraq has begun, in a manner consistent with any limitations on aid for Iraq for security purposes in effect under section 4, including the transition of United States forces in Iraq to the limited presence and mission of-

(A) training Iraqi security forces;
(B) providing logistic support of Iraqi security forces;
(C) protecting United States personnel and infrastructure; and
(D) participating in targeted counter-terrorism activities.

Obama:

Senator Obama introduced legislation in January 2007 to offer a responsible alternative to President Bush's failed escalation policy. The legislation commences redeployment of U.S. forces no later than May 1, 2007 with the goal of removing all combat brigades from Iraq by March 31, 2008 -- a date consistent with the bipartisan Iraq Study Group's expectations. The plan allows for a limited number of U.S. troops to remain in Iraq as basic force protection, to engage in counter-terrorism and to continue the training of Iraqi security forces.

This is a clear difference between Edwards and both Obama and Clinton on residual forces. Does Edwards go as far as Richardson? No. Who knows how many troops will be required to protect American civilians conducting humanitarian aide? However, there is no mention of training Iraqi security forces, and no mention of continuing to conduct counter-terrorism missions. Those are the tasks for American troops that will almost certainly require 40,000 American troops or more, and Edwards clearly does not favor them.

Now, I certainly wish Edwards would make more of an issue out of this point. While he has called out Obama and Clinton on Iraq leadership, at other times he has also suggested there is little, substantive policy differences between the three o f them on withdrawal. The latter is particularly self-defeating, since it appears to be a large policy difference that he should be trying to push, rather than hide.

Some might object, and claim that Edwards and Richardson were both wrong about the war when it started. That is true, and I certainly wish there was a candidate in double digits who was right on both ends. However, when forced to choose between someone who was wrong about the war when it started but who wants to pull all troops out now, versus someone who was right about the war when it started but wants to leave substantial amounts of "non-combat" troop in Iraq in the future, I will unequivocally go with the former. The war started long ago,  and the goal now is to end it. On that front, Richardson clearly falls into the "end the war" camp, and Edwards seems to be much closer to that camp than I had appreciated for a long time. From, everything I have read, Obama and Clinton just do not meet that test. In Obama's case, that is extremely disappointing, since he had a chance to be doubly right on Iraq.

There really isn't any other issue, character trait, candidate background, or connection to the establishment and / or grassroots that can overcome the question of residual forces to me. Call me single-issue primary activist if you must, but as I see it this is the difference between ending the war and not ending the war. Iraq just seems so much larger than a "single issue" to me, considering the number of violent deaths it has caused, the degree to which it is sucking our national resources dry, and even has the potential, if not halted, to basically end our status as the globally dominant power. Just as I feared before it started, the war is literally destroying our country, not just Iraq, and it is doing so much faster than even global warming or rising economic inequality. Even though some may find this analogy unfair, to ask me to support a candidate who wants to continue our military involvement in such an utterly disastrous public policy in a primary election feels a lot like asking me to put a Bush Dog on the Blue Majority page. I just can't do that, and I can't imagine many other prominent progressive bloggers could either.


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I'm glad you finally noticed this distinction (4.00 / 2)
Especially when you noticed it a long time ago on MyDD.

I agree with you that Edwards needs to draw more of a distinction on this count between his position and Obama's and Clinton's. I'm franly baffled as to why he doesn't, seeing as how he doesn't mind comparing his positions to the others' on health care, lobbyists, and trade.

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I needed to understand the issue better (4.00 / 3)
and then verify it. It may be only now that I feel I can absolutely make a clear distinction between the Obama / Clinton plans, the Edwards plan, the the Richardson plan. It took a while, but I feel very comfortable making that distinction now.

[ Parent ]
To be fair (0.00 / 0)
I haven't quite understood everyone's positions clearly on this until recently either, Obama's in particular.

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[ Parent ]
Obama (4.00 / 1)
Actually, Obama says:

"Residual Force to Remain: Under the Obama plan, American troops may remain in Iraq or the region. These American troops will protect American diplomatic and military personnel in Iraq, and continue striking at al Qaeda in Iraq. If Iraq makes political progress and their security forces are not sectarian, we would also continue training the Iraqi Security Forces. In the event of an outbreak of genocide, we would reserve the right to intervene, with the international community, if that intervention was needed to provide civilians with a safe-haven."

Note first that Obama has consistently said that troops will remain in 'Iraq or the region'. The troops used to protect diplomatic and military personnel in Iraq will plainly be in Iraq; where the rest will be is not specified.

Also, note the caveat on training: "If Iraq makes political progress and their security forces are not sectarian..." That's a pretty major 'if', and I actually think it makes sense: on the one hand, we shouldn't be training forces that are sectarian, militias in disguise; on the other, using this as leverage to try to get serious political progress, and to get the Iraqis to get the militias out of the army and police, is a good thing. If they want to do that, OK. If not, no training, and Obama's proposal suddenly looks a lot more like Edwards'.


[ Parent ]
That must have just been added (4.00 / 2)
Because I read the speech, and it didn't have the word "residual" in it.

And anyway, I'm not sure how that differs what I am saying here. It reads pretty much the same way. We still have a laundry list of things American troops will be doing in Iraq, and we still don't know how many forces it will require. I don't see a big difference. 

[ Parent ]
What I was thinking: (0.00 / 0)
Protection of US personnel is shared by Obama and Edwards (and Clinton.) Training is out for Edwards, and contingent on stuff for Obama. (And it matters to me that what it's contingent on is non-negligible and very much worth achieving. I suspect that those contingencies mean no training forces, but if they were achieved, that would make a huge difference.) Fighting AQI: I don't know how many troops that would require, but I would not have thought it was anything like 40,000, given that AQI is more or less restricted to Sunni areas. So I think it means a considerably smaller number of troops.

[ Parent ]
How can you fight AQI (0.00 / 0)
without combat troops?

I don't get how he can say he is pulling all combat troops out of Iraq and at the same time say he will continue to attack AQI.


[ Parent ]
Special Forces? (0.00 / 0)
n/t

[ Parent ]
Aren't those combat forces??? (4.00 / 1)


[ Parent ]
There is a fundemental (0.00 / 0)
difference between Obama/Clinton and Edwards on Iraq.

By leaving significant forces in Iraq, Obama and Clinton are buying into the notion that the US will still at some level be responsible for the political outcome there.

While the issue appears minor, in fact you are right to highlight its significance.  At its core it shows that Clinton and Obama have bought into the "we just can't leave" notion that elite Washington has been using to bully the anti-war movement.  For Obama in particular, this is a huge dissapointment.

There is an important political dimension to this as well.  It seems obvious to me that the GOP will try to replay the '72 election where there were two peace candidates.  I can easily hear a GOP candidate say in a 2008 debate

"My opponent says he will get out of Iraq now, but even he/she is going to leave tens of thousands of troops in Iraq. In fact, he/she just isn't being honest when he/she says they will take us out of Iraq.  Because dispite all the noise from the anti-war types,even my opponent understands we just can't leave

My opponent says he will remove all combat troops.  I will too, but when I do so it will be done in a way that preserves the honor and integrity of this country. 

That is the difference between us: they will bring  peace at any price, and yet leave thousands of troops in Iraq.  I will will bring Peace in Iraq, but it will be peace with honor."


[ Parent ]
A few things (0.00 / 0)
1. Good post, although what Edwards says in this video is exactly what he said in the response his campaign gave your a few months ago.

2. To be truly for ending the war would be to call for the dismantling of the monstrous embassy, which is, in fact, a military base and requires thousands of troops to protect it. It amounts to continued occupation. If I were advising Edwards, I'd urge him to call for a smaller embassy.

3. No one, as far as I know, is calling for the sphere to line up behind E or O. Or maybe I should just speak for myself. I think bloggers should indeed endorse but they should endorse whomever they please, whether it's O or E or Gravel. Unless the blogger is planning not to vote.

4. It was you who raised the idea of endorsing en masse when you said that if the sphere lined up behind a candidate, you'd "follow along."


[ Parent ]
Good Break down (4.00 / 2)
Breaking down the uses a candidate might retain forces in Iraq turns out to be much illustrative than focusing on the numbers alone.  The Edwards/Richardson position seems to me to be the right one, the training mission especially keeps us in the middle of a civil war.

In Edwards' favor (4.00 / 1)
is that he has spoken out loudly and strongly for congress to use its power of the purse to force a change in direction NOW. 

He had irritated people in DC because they would rather not deal with the issue.  The truth is that right now he has a pretty big megaphone to express what people want.  So does Obama but he uses it tepidly.  Lovely rhetoric but not a call to action. 

I am sorry that Obama has not lived up to the promise people saw in him.  However I feel Edwards will exceed expectations in turning things around.

One more thing.  In a WaPo article Enough About Iraq -- Let's Talk About Me Dana Milbank writes

Foreign Relations Chairman Joe Biden (Del.), an also-ran in the presidential race, displayed his disdain for the more popular Obama by conspicuously reading a newspaper while the Illinois senator questioned the witnesses. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) used his place as top Republican on the Armed Services Committee to direct a zinger at Obama. Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), a senior member of the Foreign Relations Committee but a presidential dark horse, wasted no time getting out a press release that took a shot at both Obama and Clinton.

Obama is unable to impress his senate colleagues to follow his leadership.  My bet is that more are in Clinton's corner.  Edwards made a bigger impression on his colleagues while there.  He also is not afraid to stand up to them.  I think Obama won't make big bold pronouncements because he doesn't have a following in the senate.

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Edward's position (0.00 / 0)
Chris,

It baffles me that Edwards has not clearly shown or indicated that his position is distinctive from Clinton And Obama on residual forces.

Most people think that his position call's for leaving a residual force the size of cLINTON'S and Obama's AND CARRYING OUT THE SAME MISSIONS.


[ Parent ]
Edwards keeps saying different things on Iraq (0.00 / 0)
From http://firstread.msn...

Although the Obama plan calls for a remaining residual military presence to protect American diplomatic and military personnel and continue hunting al-Qaeda, the Illinois senator did not, in his speech or in an extended overview of his plan, reveal exactly how many troops would remain. In addition, the Edwards campaign, speaking with reporters on a conference call on Monday, called for a residual force but denied to give exact numbers.

At the last Dem Presidential debate in Iowa, Edwards said all Dems had essentially the same plan for Iraq.  Edwards has failed to articulate a consistent message on whether or not he wants ALL US troops out of Iraq.

How many troops will Edwards keep in Iraq indefinitely?  Who knows?  No even Edwards appears to know.


[ Parent ]
Oh, bullshit (4.00 / 1)
A President Edwards would be a powerful man, but he cannot repeal reality in the Middle East.

A nation has to live up to its commitments, just like an individual. Nobody walks away from the game of international power politics with any debts.

Any Democratic president will have to deal with the wreckage of Bush's war, and the commitments Bush has made to the Kurds, if no-one else. Any Democrat who believes he can repeal that reality is a liar. An American president who treats promises -- even those made by previous American presidents -- squanders his own credibility. Succeeding presidents will pay his own commitments even less respect than he paid to Bush's, and the meaning of his own promises will diluted to nothing.

Nobody would give a shit about any Democratic promise to Darfurians, Kosovars, or any other random oppressed people, if a Democrat refuses to honor commitments to tribes whose continued sovereignty, if not existence, count upon American protection.

American troops are not in "harm's way" by being in Kurdistan. There is probably no safer place for Americans in the entire Middle East, definitely including Israel. They will act as a check against a huge expansion of Iranian power, and they will protect a tribe which we already failed once. In the meantime, the US troops will not be shot at.

It is one thing for you to argue that keeping Iraqi operations at full tempo with 175,000 US soldiers is an unacceptable strain on the country's resources. But for you to equate that with 40,000 or 60,000 troops, in isolated bases, in friendlier regions of the country, is simply ignorant. South Korea and Germany still have, or have had until very recently, huge (70,000) garrisons of United States troops, and the United States paid for it for half a century. That is what is envisioned for Iraq. It will be a high cost, to be sure. Yes, it sucks. Yes, it was an original end goal of the neocon project, but it's been done before, and it's not a prohibitive cost.

It might piss you off that a Democratic president would have to do that, since that would be, in a sense, hostage to President Bush's own actions. But that's reality, and any Democrat who promises that he will repeal that is a bald-faced liar.

Even the most determinedly pacifistic Democrat who enters the White House will have to make decisions with information provided, overwhelmingly, by the bureaucracy. The federal government is a brain, and while the president is the key organ in the federal decisionmaking process, a lot of things go on without his consent. A president must, in large part, trust the bureaucracy. That's where he gets his information, and every president is to some degree a rational algorithm who makes what are, to him, strategically optimal allocations of national resources. If that algorithm has a weird kink that processes information in a very unBeltwaylike manner -- like, say, being determinedly pacifistic -- pro-war bureaucracies will present the information in a different, probably more urgent manner, with a larger humanitarian focus. If enough of the bureaucracy and brokers of national information feel strongly enough, the bureaucracy can simply ignore the President and, to a very significant degree, operate autonomously, unless the President wages a usually suicidal war that somewhat damages the bureaucracy over the long term, and certainly cripples the sitting President.

Because of that, being a "change President" is a lot more about intellectual fortitude, trusting the right people to present information in as neutral a manner as possible, and the discerning conviction to understand when other people want to influence your behavior.

John Edwards has been all the right things -- too many of the right things -- to the left for the past year and a half. He has never, until the last two years or so, (oh-so-conveniently) trusted the right sources of information.

He has NEVER made the right choices when it mattered--only promises easily made, dubiously fulfilled, and utterly contradictory of his own choices.

He has NEVER stood firm under any real pressure, in public or even, to my knowledge, on the campaign trail. (Pandagon..)

Always there is excuse, followed by eloquent obfuscation, followed by acknowledging mea culpa, followed by blistering rhetoric that satisfies whomever originally pushed him the hardest, or whoseever support he needs the most at that particular moment. Results? Nope.

Clinton, well, fuggeddaboudit..

Obama has made the right judgments. He does not respect the pompous narcissism of the cocktail circuit that got this war started, which has neither the shame, nor the awareness to realize its own culpability and involvement in the onset of the war, which was when the PROMISES WERE MADE.

Any Democrat, simply because of his/her constituencies, will draw down some troops at first. The issue is not over what will happen in the next two years. That has already been, to a very large extent, determined. The Army itself will not stand for continuing operations at this pace.

The issue is what the candidates' plans are for what Iraq will look like in about six years.

Clinton seems to indicate about 80,000 troops. Obama seems to indicate about 50,000. A pretty significant difference if you ask me. But either way, it doesn't renege on core American commitments, and it leaves most of Iraq to "govern" itself without it being easy prey for anti-Kurd, anti-Saudi, anti-Israel, anti-Kuwait, anti-UAE, anti-US Iran.

Edwards promises something like 5,000. His promises have gone through a staggering number of iterations even since he discovered how antiwar he was. He has fewer carve-outs now than he used to, and it helped for Marshall to sympathetically fill in some blanks there. Edwards has shown absolutely no consistency in his promises, and has never paid an actual political price for anything. But let's say he Really Means It This Time. Does that mean he will actually get it done? In the past, his conviction has uncannily aligned with his own political self-interest exactly 100 percent of the time. I guess that shouldn't be called "conviction," but who's judging...

Richardson became who he is by being a Clinton cog. Policy-wise, he is differentiable from Clinton in about 2 respects: a "pro-growth Democrat," which is essentially what Clinton is except that she doesn't bother to say so, and with regards to Iraq policy. So somebody who was one of Clinton's main foreign policy people apparently thinks exactly the same way the Clintons do ... except for ripping up the Mideast policy that Clinton and most of his people helped fabricate, if not take responsibility for. Hmm. Seems a little odd to me. Not to mention highly politically convenient. But this is the progressive blogosphere, so who's judging?

Stack up the candidate who had the judgment to call BS on this war, against a bunch of people who mostly supported the war and now blame somebody else for it. To me, it seems that Obama would like to wind the war down as fast as possible without cheating on commitments the country has already made, and the other Democrats are seizing upon Obama's unwillingness to bullshit people to jump to Obama's left, before walking away after the primary.

Progressives will get fucked as long as they believe the candidate that lies to them the most, and they don't deserve any better.


edit (0.00 / 0)
utterly contradictory of his [Edwards's] own PRIOR choices

[ Parent ]
If we stay, I see this kind of exit from Iraq in about six years (0.00 / 0)
http://cla.calpoly.e...

In your mind, picture the Baghdad embassy. It's a much nicer building.


[ Parent ]
Differences (4.00 / 2)
We have 30,000 troops in Korea and they are not engaged in combat or are we losing American lives. The governments seem to want us in those countries,

A residual force of going after Al Queda, embedding with the Iraqui forces and doing border security will be involved in combat and thei will be casualities of Americans. The residual force will probably be around 60-70,000 troops to carry out these missions.

I am a combat veteran of Vietnam AND i CAN ASSURE YOU THAT A SIZE OF FORCE DOING THOSE MISSIONS WILL BE IN COMBAT AND IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SECTERIAN WAR.


[ Parent ]
No, you can't say that. (0.00 / 0)
175,000 troops aren't getting the job done. The military wants to call it quits on the day-to-day handholding, because the Shia Iraqis are putting nothing in our hands other than hand grenades.

The soldiers who would stay would be in heavily guarded bases away from urban areas, and would function as a deterrent to international misbehavior, not as a peacekeeping force. The military is utterly sick of peacekeeping.

What the military, the intel establishment, and many other people don't want is for the United States to freak out, leave, and let Iran take over Iraq by proxy. That's not acceptable and it will lead to a bloodbath between the Saudis, UAE Israelis, Kurds, Kuwaitis and Egyptians on one side (without saying so, but their intel agencies are all fairly comfortable with one another relative to other Arab actors, and Israel is actively involved in training Kurdish forces)--and Iran, Syria, Turkey Hezbollah, southern Iraq, and maybe Bahrain on the other side. Again, this idea of stationing 10,000 troops in Turkey is just stupid, and whoever thought of it simply hasn't been paying jack $#!t for attention.

Cry all you want about the oil economy, but that picture is not alterable over the next ten years. It will be a lot less predictable if the US leaves it all to its (in that case former) allies in the region.

In any case, there are WAY too many US commitments there for the US to give them the finger and walk away. It will also nullify the idea of a "Democratic" foreign policy.

You can't stick other players at that poker table with your debt. That's just not how the Mideast operates. Candidates who think they can impose something else on that environment by fiat, and just walk away, are morons as well as liars.


[ Parent ]
Not you, not me not anyone has a clue what is going to happen (4.00 / 1)
next year, much less two years from now in Iraq. You assume that the insanity currently in play is at some sort of steady state. That's a dangerous assumption. We have Russia, China, the EU, India, Pakistan, Turkey and Israel (not to mention Iran) any one of which could throw the whole thing into a fifty-two card pickup situation a year from now.

If we attack Iran all bets are off. Why do you think Russia just demoed a nuclear equivalent non-nuclear weapon? Because nuclear damage with no radiation is a conventional weapon.

We started this. The longer we stay the greater the risk for a Middle East conflagration. And we're the ones who are trigger happy. More than any other country in the world today.

The sooner we leave, the greater the possibility that fewer people will die. The longer we stay, the greater the possibility that more and more people will die.


[ Parent ]
i don't know anything that might happen (0.00 / 0)
but some things are predictable. In this case the most predictable scenario, from all we know, is that Iran takes over the majority of Iraq if we leave, and Kurdistan will probably get squeezed out by Iran and Turkish action. That will involve enormous violence. The winners, who almost certainly will be Iran/Turkey, will have scalding contempt for American interests and allies, and they will suffer next.

That scenario is totally unpalatable to a very large cross section of American elite interests, and also to the public at large, whether it knows yet or not. (gas prices etc)

The winding down over the next five years or so will be very similar no matter what Democrat -- probably any Republican, as well -- will propose. The real question will be *after* 80-100,000 troops are withdrawn. That is a question of fundamental attitude, and the people you have surrounded yourself with.

It is not a question of who has the most detailed and most pleasing to the Dem primary electorate 10-point bullshit plan.

At all.


[ Parent ]
nothing is predictable (0.00 / 0)
I know this can go back and forth for as long as we are both willing to disagree in writing, but nothing is predictable. Nothing. The U.S. is not in control of this. No one is. It is volatile and could go off tomorrow or the next day (or tonight while we're sleeping) like a roman candle.

I want us out of there. Now. I want the U.S. to quit playing Empire. I want us to stop our insanity before we start a wave of international militarism that might end in a nuclear conflagration that WE initiate. I want the violence to wind down, not increase. WE (the U.S.) are the one country in the world that every other country is afraid of. WE are the destabilizing force. WE are the belligerent. We are not the victims. I am tired of the polite liberal silence that follows the mad rantings of neocon and neolib elites. I LIKED the Move On "Betray Us" ad.

I'm tired of the lies. I'm tired of watching the U.S. pursue a path of unbridled militaristic/monopoly corporatist global fascism. I want us to act like a democracy.


[ Parent ]
that argument never wins even if it is right. (0.00 / 0)
Institutions do not believe that things are unpredictable. I think they overestimate their own predictive abilities, but some things can be foreseen.

The US cannot quit playing Empire over a six month timeframe. It's exactly analogous to trying to leave the mob. Too many people depend on you to protect them from bigger forces that want both them and you dead. If you walk out, your former friends go to your enemies and they conspire to guarantee that you die. The only way to walk away is to do it at a painfully slow rate.

And while the US has smashed its share of china in the world china shop, it most definitely is not the only one, by any stretch of the imagination. Mafia warfare is never a one sided story and neither is imperial politics.


[ Parent ]
Iran taking over (4.00 / 1)
This is neocon framing and it is not predictable.

The conventional wisdom during Vietnam is that if we leave the whole region will fall to the communists and then they will be in the phillipines and next Hawaii.

The foreign policy experts were wrong. Many talked about a blood bath when we left and chaos for years.

Some blood bath but more destabalization in Cambodia because of Nixon's carpet bombing.

If we followed JForshaw's advice in Vietnam, we would still have troops in Vietnam and fighting. It may have been messy in 1975 when we left, but today the country is peaceful and a good trading partner with the US.


[ Parent ]
There is no such thing (0.00 / 0)
to AQI as a non-combat soldier in Iraq.  AQI is going to attack any sizable US military contigent.

[ Parent ]
the idea of AQI (0.00 / 0)
is mostly crap. Iraqi Sunnis are generally on our side at this point. It's the Shias that are the problem.

[ Parent ]
I agree (0.00 / 0)
the larger issue is a vision for the region and how you get there. 

I'll admit that I can see the appeal of the "get as many out as possible" position.  It's purist and has a logical consistency -- end this thing now.  But its not the whole picture -- and it may be wrong or impractical in practice.

But the absolutism about it is hard to understand.

Maybe the reason Edwards is not playing this up very strongly is because he's taking the position to distinguish himself for people who are single-issue "residual forces" voters like Chris, but he's not sure how it plays to the larger primary audience.


[ Parent ]
Center for American Progress (0.00 / 0)
Has a very clear residual force plan that requires only 1,000 troops, plus another 9,000-10,000 either in Kurdistan or just across the boarder in Turkey.

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1250

It can be done. And yes, the President can do it. And yes, there is a big distinction to me made here, one that I cannot ignore.

Maybe you don't trust Edwards or Richardson, but I do. And their plans are just better, no matter what judgment calls Obama made in the past.


[ Parent ]
responded to CAP in that diary. (4.00 / 1)
http://www.openleft....

[b]I like it how CAP has a nice little "Residual forces in Iraq: 1K," and then has a "Turkey or northern Iraq: 10K," conveniently omitting the fact that Turkey has swung hard against the United States in recent years, and didn't even give the United States any forward bases for a northern prong of the original invasion of Iraq.

The idea that American forces will be based in Turkey is a purely political palliative designed to minimize the residual forces in Iraq number, because number of troops in Iraq has become the sole benchmark of the antiwar crowd. It's a fantasy. You can notch the residual number up to 11K right now.

Also, IF there are friendly parts of Iraq where soldiers can be stationed (as a regional stabilizing influence, ie to beat the crap out of an overt Iranian invasion, without day to day pacifications as has been US policy), it makes a lot more sense to put them *there* than to move them to Kuwait. Kurdistan certainly fits that bill, and Sunni Iraq has moved substantially in that direction as well, commensurate with US alienation from Shiite Iraqis.

(The people preaching success in Anbar are correct -- they just aren't mentioning that as Iraq's 20% Sunnis have warmed quite a bit to the US, its 60% of Shiites have become bitter enemies.)

Conventional forces do nothing sitting in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is more of a cartel-war situation anyway (the Taliban should probably be thought of as analogous to FARC by now). Plunking 20,000 US troops down there is probably going to be counterproductive. Either send them home or put them in Kurdistan or Anbar. Conventional armies have never been successful in Afghanistan and probably never will.[/b]

Btw, with regards to the trust issue, I'm not saying "my gut tells me JRE and BR are POS's, don't trust them." I'm saying that when it comes to strategic behavior, human beings are pretty similar algorithms, algorithms are determined by information inputs, and information inputs are entirely determined by people the decisionmaker (the president) trusts.

Richardson's financial and political networks are overwhelmingly Clintonian, so there's no reason for his strategic behavior to be substantially differentiable from Clinton's.

I don't really know what Edwards' networks are other than trial lawyers (not sold on the unions part) but whatever it is, it didn't work when it mattered.


[ Parent ]
Yeah, I think I saw the numbers for (0.00 / 0)
CAP as 8-10,000, but even if it's 11,000, that's worlds better than some plans, yes? I'm not quite sure what your point is about Turkey vs. Northern Iraq. That they're playing with numbers? Maybe, but even if so (and as you say it's completely obviously--I'd even say 'up front'--so hardly all that deceptive), they still have a plan that appears as well-grounded as anyone's, and requires about 11,000 troops, at most, instead of three times that number.

[ Parent ]
playing the numbers. yes. (0.00 / 0)
That wasn't so much a critique of the substance itself as ridiculing their "plan for 1,000 residual troops," as it has been presented.

Pretty much every other aspect of that plan is idiotic, and a politics-driven palliative. 20,000 troops to Afghanistan? WTF? Conventional forces are pretty much nonfunctional in Afghan terrain. There was a reason we never put a massive footprint in that country. Iraq, for all its sectarian crap, is at least flat!

And 10,000 or whatever to Kuwait, when they could be much more useful in Anbar or Kurdistan?

The "plan" is a pure rhetorical gimmick to get "residual forces in Iraq" down to an arbitrary number, because the blogosphere has placed such a premium on whatever half-baked plan says it can do that. That premium is misplaced.


[ Parent ]
Getting US troops down to (0.00 / 0)
some small arbitrary number -is- the strongest plan.

[ Parent ]
Big Question (4.00 / 1)
How can you say that you will not leave any combat troops in Iraq and at the same time say you will leave troops to fight the extremist?  What kind of troops fight extremist if not combat troops.  If you fight extremist and you use combat troops is that not continuing the war?  Duh!  Also, what kind of troops do you use to guard the embassy?  Are they combat troops or not?  And can the US have an embassy without at least 10,000 troops to protect the embassy?  Richardson does not want to leave any risidual troops, so does that mean he won't have a US embassy in Iraq?  I think all of the democratic candidates are deluding themselves if they think that we can have an embassy and not keep some combat troops in Iraq.  One thing we could do is just abandon the embassy, or give it to the Iraqis for their government workers and the contractors who will still be in Iraq to oversee the reconstruction of Iraq.  If the Iraqis want to rebuild their country they will have to step us and protect these people.  Another thing is that we could still have diplomats in the US embassy, but have less than we want.  There has to be an answer to getting out of Iraq.

[ Parent ]
I don't trust Richardson! (0.00 / 0)
He's a Centrist and his "out of Iraq" deal seems like he's merely "upping" other candidates.  He's also in a 4-man firm with Henry Kissinger and other Centrists - just one big happy family in DLC/GOP DC.

[ Parent ]
There has to be a negotiation ... (0.00 / 0)
... and our best hope is for a stable balance of power within Iraq as the outcome. And we should not wait until the withdrawal is complete to start that negotiation, as Richardson has called for.

But we have to leave. The premise that Iraq can stabilize with any sizable US troop presence precedes the question of whether it should be 50,000 or 80,000 in six years time, and the premise is false.

The best we are going to get is the best negotiated outcome on our way out with the closest to a stable balance of power within the country. If there external forces are going to be negotiated as a part of that process, they have to be stabilizing forces, which therefore means they will not be US forces.


[ Parent ]
have whatever faith in negotiation you want (0.00 / 0)
but negotiation is only as good as the weaker player's ability to impose costs if the negotiations fall through. If the United States scuffles out of Iraq as fast as possible and "negotiates" while we do it, guess what? We aren't going to get anything. The American public might be stupid enough to not realize that it's surrender until a couple of years later, but the winners of the war would know better.

As I like to repeat, winding down imperialism is about as easy as trying to "get out of the mob." Unless everybody understands that you will go absolutely nuts and shoot the hell out of whoever scuttles your plan to leave (and leave slowly, because everybody has to watch everybody else so that nobody gets an opportunity to make a power grab and ruin the entire arrangement), then people who felt betrayed by you will be assimilated by your enemies, and then they will both come after you until you make a balloon payment or die.

Not that the US would die, but it would pay a lot more a little later..


[ Parent ]
It most certainly does piss me off ... (4.00 / 1)
...that the residual troops plan (so far) of some candidates is a match for the original PNAC plan, as I have been writing for a couple of months.

Kurdistan? Sure. I think the Strategic Reset plan of the Center for American Progress has that right. 8-10,000 troops until the end of 2009. But 40-60,000 troops throughout Iraq? Correct me if I'm wrong, but the soldiers we had/have in Germany and Japan haven't been shot at and bombed every day of the decades they were there. Not even in 1945.


[ Parent ]
good points, good points.. (0.00 / 0)
As I understand "where things stand" (I get most of my information from a private security consultant publication) military institutions do not plan on stabilizing Iraq per se. They don't care how many Iraqi Shiites kill Iraqi Shiites or Iraqi Sunnis kill Iraqi Sunnis.

That is a change from the MO up to this point, or at least the MO as it has been popularly conceived. (The military has been winding that part down as fast as possible.)

What is not acceptable is for Iranian Shias to mold Iraqi Shias, for instance, into another powerful regional organ of the Iranian regime, as Hezbollah has been.

The "heal every patient" approach to Iraqi societal strife has been a major failure. The military knows it, everybody knows it. It can't be admitted as such because -- as I understand things -- that would undermine public support for what would not be perceived to be, but what actually is more important, which is quarantining that strife from Iran. Because Iran has already leveraged it to its own huge advantage.

The 40-60k in Iraq would probably be stationed largely in Kurdistan, somewhat in Sunni Anbar as long as it were friendly (and Saudi proxies/cash, not to mention Anbaris' own survival incentives, strengthen that probability), and some bases on the Iran-Iraq border.

Police work is not in the endgame no matter how much Iraqis continue killing each other. Again, as I understand things, it's not something the military believes it can control.


[ Parent ]
Wow, Chris! (4.00 / 1)
I wrote something almost exactly like this yesterday in Hullabaloo comments but Haloscan ate it when I tried to post:0

I can't imagine that Edwards could not gain both the nomination and the presidency if he did nothing more than state this position repeatedly right up to inauguration day. (I know Rove fears Edwards more than any other candidate. He's got that Southern Governor Democrat thing going.) 


I wondered (0.00 / 0)
what you all would think about that interview when I saw it. That is a pretty minimal level, certainly.

If he's really that far from Obama's and Clinton's position, though, it is puzzling why he's not making more of a point of it. Especially in Iowa. Everyone thinks that all the candidates are going to bring all the troops home, that there's no real difference among them. Maybe he doesn't want to get that visible about it, or he doesn't think there'd be any point in emphasizing it because people won't hear or believe it. It's odd.

I think a question about Kurdistan would be a good followup for whoever talks to him next...

not everything worth doing is profitable. not everything profitable is worth doing.


Here's my imaginary interview with you, Chris (4.00 / 2)
if I'm an evil journalist and you're a Presidential candidate:

Danby: You've said that there should be no residual U.S. force in Iraq, which is contrary to the Reid-Feingold bill which would allow Americans to continue to fight against Al Qaeda-affiliated forces there.  Does that mean that even if Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia was resurgent in Anbar, you would not want to see Americans fighting them?

Bowers: Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia is not the same as Al Qaeda and doesn't have a significant presence in Iraq.

Danby: OK, but I'm talking about what the situation would be like in 2009.  Let's say that their presence grows -- perhaps after the Sunni tribal leaders switch sides again -- and they have a more significant presence and are training actual terrorists who could threaten the U.S.  Would you still say that American ground troops couldn't engage them?

[And here I offer the four responses I'd anticipate:]

Bowers (a): They wouldn't have to be based inside Iraq.

Danby (a): Then is that such a big difference?  And what if their not being based there makes them much less effective and their job that more dangerous?

- - - -

Bowers (b): We could fight that with air power.

Danby (b): So you're OK with bombing them?  How's that been working historically?  And who calls in coordinates?

- - - -

Bowers (c): That's not a realistic prospect.

Danby (c): Because the Sunnis would never switch back to opposing us?  Because they wouldn't want to draw us back in?  Because it's not a fertile area for recruitment?  Yeesh.

- - - -

Bowers (d): No, we should not have ground troops there under any circumstances.

Danby (d): Thank you for the interview.

- - - -

(d) gets published under the headline "Bowers OK with Al Qaeda Presence in Iraq."  And we get President Romney.  (Or, in this blogging metaphor, President Charles Johnson.)

The Presidential candidates are going to need some flexibility once they're elected.  Getting someone to sign on to something like Reid-Feingold is plenty good enough for this stage.  You may be right on the merits, but support for Reid-Feingold is a good enough stance from which a new Dem President can do whatever needs doing.

P.S. You're right not to endorse if you can't decide.  I'm with you on that.

I speak only for myself, not for those voices in the next room that won't leave me alone.


Very rude of you (0.00 / 0)
to shit on Bowers' fantasy like that.

[ Parent ]
What the fuck is this? (4.00 / 1)
Your are a mind reader, now? You know what I think?

Seriously, this entire comment is pretty offensive. But hey, if you think we should have the flexibility to send troops into any country with Al-Qaeda, that's your business.

[ Parent ]
what's offensive about it? (4.00 / 1)
It's a reasonable question. Obama has two alternatives: one, do a Clinton "Surge Lite lite" with the full intention of reducing the Iraq commitment as much as is feasibly possible, or two, get the living crap beaten out of him (almost certainly destroyed) for being morally pure.

You can make any moral argument you want about absolute withdrawal, although full withdrawal seems to raise as many questions as it solves. But you need to present a convincing case that the primary brokers of public opinion in this country (MSM, collective Beltway expert judgment [sic]), who have a hell of a lot more influence over this process than The Progressive Blogosphere does, won't destroy him for an absolutist position.

In any case, I don't think Obama wants absolute withdrawal even if it were palatable. I think he wants about 70% drawdown.

Considering that he has foregone significant political payoffs by refusing to throw meat at various audiences, and that he has also appeared to reject full immediate withdrawal when pressed, I think that is the case.


[ Parent ]
what's offensive? (0.00 / 0)
The straw man Bowers, for one.

[ Parent ]
"I'm an evil journalist and you're a Presidential candidate." (0.00 / 0)
What, now we can't even deal with hypotheticals on a -blog-?

The problem with MD's post wasn't putting words in Senator Bowers's mouth (because, um, you know, Bowers actually -isn't- a candidate, and that's pretty clearly a thought experiment), it's that we can develop hypotheticals for any possible position to show that the media will savage Dems.

"Would you torture a six year old girl, sir, if that was the -only way- to save a million lives? Ha ha!"

Sure, if Bin Laden started raising millions of dead Nazis in the Green Zone and creating Panzer zombie legions, we'd maybe send troops in.


[ Parent ]
Just as Michael Dukakis should have been prepared (0.00 / 0)
for a question like Bernard Shaw's one on the death penalty in 1988, any Democrat who is running for President in 2008 had damn well sure better be prepared for a question such as this, and be able to hit it out of the park and show that their plan allows them to do so.  I'm not invoking Panzer zombies here, or the torture question you post above that can reasonably be answered with a cold stare and a statement that that's a bit far-fetched.  I'm invoking what the public will likely think is a very real concern re the growth of Al Qaeda in Iraq.  If you think otherwise, you're welcome to debate it on the merits.

My answer, FWIW, is to maintain the ability to fight Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia as a cost of whatever reparations we pay in Iraq, which should be huge.  But I'm also not trying to draw down troops to nothing in short order.

I speak only for myself, not for those voices in the next room that won't leave me alone.


[ Parent ]
I disagree that there's a (0.00 / 0)
real concern about the growth of Al Qaeda in Iraq. There's a real -hysteria- about the growth of Al Qaeda in Iraq--and it's not even the same Al Qaeda that attacked us, of course. If the question is, 'Should we send occupy any country where a growing number of fanatic suicide bombers start -calling themselves- AQ?' then the answer's pretty obvious, I think. 

Obsessing on the so-called AQI, when they're not responsible (by a wide margin, if I remember right) for most of the  deaths in Iraq, when they're not the largest or best-organized group, when they haven't the same broad-bas of support in Iraq, and when they've virtually no operational equivalence to the AQ that attacked the US seems not to deserve -much- more than a cold stare. Am I wrong? I think they're being used as a bogeyman, here.

I agree that our candidates have to hit this out of the park--but they don't need to accept the frame.


[ Parent ]
I don't think that we need to prepare ourselves (0.00 / 0)
only to fight against fair or logical attacks, Joel.  You can see that the Republicans are planning on using a feared Al Qaeda beachhead in Iraq as a main campaign theme by looking at their speeches; it's an almost inevitable subtext.  Yes, they are not responsible for many of the killings; yes, they're small.  The concern is: what happens if Iraq becomes a failed state a la Somalia.  What can we expect to happen with AQM (M=Mesopotamia) then?

I am not saying that this is a credible threat; I don't think it is a particularly current threat for the reasons you mention; I'm not going to argue with your calling it mere hysteria.  I do care about whether it can move votes and potentially derail what ought to be a clear Democratic path to the Presidency.  This is, I believe, going to be a mainstay in the 2008 GOP campaign.  And I therefore don't begrudge Democrats leaving enough flexibility in their announced plans that voters will believe them when they wave it away.

I speak only for myself, not for those voices in the next room that won't leave me alone.


[ Parent ]
In other words: (0.00 / 0)
"Let's say that their presence grows -- perhaps after the Sunni tribal leaders switch sides again -- and they have a more significant presence and are training actual terrorists who could threaten the U.S.  Would you still say that American ground troops couldn't engage them?"

Candidate Joel: "I would not re-invade Iraq, no. I will not invade any country unless they pose a real imminent threat against the US. And I -definitely- won't allow terrorist groups to dictate our foreign policy by just calling themselves 'Al Qaeda'."


[ Parent ]
Candidate Joel Question: (0.00 / 0)
Reporter Danby: "So how large would you let AQM get, and how involved in planning and executing terrorist activities, before you would do something about them, and what would that be?"

[By the way: that was a good answer and I thank you for playing along, but eventually I think you have to let people know that a significant AQM presence in Iraq won't be tolerated, or they won't feel that you are protecting them.  They may be deluded, but deluded people vote.  Often, they vote disproportionately.  If our campaign depends on getting Americans to accept the idea that Al Qaeda in Iraq is not the same is Al Qaeda -- that it's a McDonald's owned by a franchisee rather than the corporation itself -- then I think we have trouble.  For one thing, they're not going to think that it matters; an exploding Big Mac is an exploding Big Mac, regardless of who owns the shop.]

I speak only for myself, not for those voices in the next room that won't leave me alone.


[ Parent ]
No, I don't know what you think (0.00 / 0)
Hence the title "Imaginary interview ... and you're a Presidential candidate."  (After all, that's who you'd like to take your advice.)  I did want to draw out what you do think, though, and I still would.

I think that the question "Let's say that their presence grows -- perhaps after the Sunni tribal leaders switch sides again -- and they have a more significant presence and are training actual terrorists who could threaten the U.S.  Would you still say that American ground troops couldn't engage them?" is a legitimate one that Democrats have to prepare to answer.

I see four likely answers from one with your viewpoint, though I don't doubt that you may be able to think of others.  (I'd love to hear them.  So, no doubt, would the Presidential candidates, if they're really thinking of taking your advice.)  So, I listed them.  I think each of them is flawed.  I think the fourth, which I was guessing was the most likely and which most closely resembles your dismissive final sentence above, is the worst, because it does not credit public fears about the growth of Al Qaeda in Iraq (which so far as I recall don't play a large part in the polls you've cited.)  I'd hoped that you'd choose one or more and defend them -- ideally well enough to be convincing that Democrats who favored a zero residual force wouldn't be skewered with this question.

If you don't want to answer it because I wrote it using dialogue instead of prose, I can rewrite it in paragraph form.  But usually dialogue makes a point more effectively.

By the way, the President does "have the flexibility to send troops into any country with Al-Qaeda," under the 2001 (not 2002) AUMF, which I'd like to see repealed if there was a way to do it while still allowing the President to, well, fight Al Qaeda (whom I dislike and think we have good reason to fear and reject.)  Any Democrat who took a position that we shouldn't fight Al Qaeda -- if it's really Al Qaeda -- at all would be a really rotten choice of nominee.  Right?

I speak only for myself, not for those voices in the next room that won't leave me alone.


[ Parent ]
Danby (4.00 / 1)
He is making a excuse to continue the american presence in Iraq.

This is sheer lunacy. If he believes this, then let him get his ass ovewr their and participate in going after Al Queda.

I have been to war and I find the pseudo intellectualisim in supporting a flawed policy incredulous.


[ Parent ]
For some people, this would be a fastball up the middle: (0.00 / 0)
What exactly do you mean when you use the word "pseudointellectualism"?

I speak only for myself, not for those voices in the next room that won't leave me alone.

[ Parent ]
Why should I believe him? (0.00 / 0)
Edwards also said this back in 2002:

This week, a week where we remember the sacrifice of thousands of innocent Americans made on 9-11, the choice could not be starker. Had we known that such attacks were imminent, we surely would have used every means at our disposal to prevent them and take out the plotters. We cannot wait for such a terrible event - or, if weapons of mass destruction are used, one far worse - to address the clear and present danger posed by Saddam Hussein's Iraq."

That was a blatant lie. If Edwards lied then, why should anyone trust him now? Joe Lieberman said in 2006, "No one wants to bring home the troops more than I do." Lieberman was lying then too. It's what politicians do.

I am so tired of politicians lying to me. And with Edwards, it's obvious. Watch the video again where he talks about leaving forces there only to protect the embassy -- his eyes blink like crazy. An obvious "tell" for all you poker fans. He doesn't blink like that anywhere else in the interview. Simply unbelievable.

 


wrong audience.. (0.00 / 0)
People who still believe Edwards isn't bullshitting them aren't going to be convinced by one more paragraph of rational argument.

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure which candidate you (0.00 / 0)
support, but that's a comment worthy of a particularly overwrought Fox news viewer.

In other news, who knew poker was so easy?


[ Parent ]
Edwards Lied About the Threat of a Nuclear Attack -- Just Like Bush (0.00 / 0)
What's worse than lying about the threat of a nuclear attack -  or the "clear and present danger" posed by Saddam Hussein?

This is what John Edwards did. To justify his support for the war. Now, he says he was wrong and wants me to vote for him. Well, no. That's too big of a lie for me to swallow.

Here's what Edwards said about the need to attack Iraq - a country that never attacked us, and that had nothing to do with 9/11:

"As a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, I firmly believe that the issue of Iraq is not about politics. [LIE # 1] It's about national security. We know that for at least 20 years, Saddam Hussein has obsessively sought weapons of mass destruction through every means available. [LIE # 2] We know that he has chemical and biological weapons today. [LIE # 3] He has used them in the past, [TRUE] and he is doing everything he can to build more. [LIE # 4] Each day he inches closer to his longtime goal of nuclear capability - a capability that could be less than a year away."[LIE # 5 - BIG ONE]

"The path of confronting Saddam is full of hazards. But the path of inaction is far more dangerous. [LIE # 6 - Sort of dangerous to thousands of American soldiers and dead Iraqis] This week, a week where we remember the sacrifice of thousands of innocent Americans made on 9-11, the choice could not be starker. Had we known that such attacks were imminent, [LIE # 7 - We Knew, did nothing] we surely would have used every means at our disposal to prevent them and take out the plotters. We cannot wait for such a terrible event - or, if weapons of mass destruction are used, one far worse - to address the clear and present danger posed by Saddam Hussein's Iraq." [LIE # 8 -- REALLY BIG LIE]

You want to vote for this guy?

If I had to vote right now, it would probably be for Richardson or Obama. Neither of these guys lied to get us into a disastrous war. Edwards did, so did Clinton.

I don't know why anyone would trust Edwards.


[ Parent ]
Come to think of it... (0.00 / 0)
An Obama-Richardson ticket would be fantastic.

Youthful energy plus experience.
Northern state appeal plus Southern state appeal.
The first African-American president and first Hispanic-American vice president, or vice-versa.

Most importantly: The two men who did not vote in favor of the war, or lie in support of going to war.


[ Parent ]
there's a flaw (0.00 / 0)
Richardson was a hawk before the war.

Join us at the Missouri community blog Show Me Progress!

[ Parent ]
And every mistake (0.00 / 0)
is a lie.


[ Parent ]
That's debatable... (0.00 / 0)
Richardson should have known we'd be stirring up a hornets nest in Iraq, and he should have said so. That's true. Not only did he not do that, but he also seemed to agree that Saddam brought this attack on himself by not being more cooperative with inspectors, thus supporting Bush's justification for war.  However, he didn't lie about the threat of a nuclear attack, as Edwards did. Nor did Richardson cosponsor Joe Lieberman's Iraq War Resolution, as Edwards did.

So is, or was, Richardson a "hawk"? Doesn't look like it to me. He has long recognized the importance of international peace-keeping bodies like the U.N. This is from a Richardson speech to the DLC in 2003, which gets into his foreign policy position before the Iraq War turned into a major disaster:

And we have to remember that two Democratic presidents, Woodrow Wilson and FDR, led this country to victory in both the First and the Second World War. They did so because they were tough and strong, because they understood the importance of building strong alliances, finding common cause with our friends. They understood the importance of a strong military, and they understood the importance of even stronger diplomacy. They planned not just for war, but also for the peace and found common ground with our allies to win both.

We need to show the American people that there is a tough and multilateral possibility built on the solid foundation of NATO, of the United Nations, the alliances that have kept the peace for a generation. It's not just our function as Democrats to present such possibilities, it's our patriotic duty to do so, but also we say the United Nations needs to be revitalized. That it needs to have a stronger role in dealing with international terrorism, with AIDS, with tribal and ethnic conflicts like in Yugoslavia, like an environmental degradation. And we need to challenge it to be better, but not to ignore it. And NATO, the most successful alliance America has ever had; today in Iraq, absent. We should be proposing viable, multilateral policies to deal with the reconstruction of Iraq, but not just America -- that the burden should be shared.

He's exactly right on this. And he doesn't sound like a hawk to me. He's stressing the importance of rebuilding peace-keeping institutions like the U.N. and NATO. In his book "Diplomacy Lessons," the author (Kiesling) espouses the same idea -- shoring up international institutions embodied to keep the peace. Richardson, as a former diplomat, gets it.

I would definitely support an Obama-Richardson ticket.


[ Parent ]
Obama Showing Movement on Residual Troops (4.00 / 1)
I put together a diary with Obama's statements on residual troops today.  I think there is some clear movement going on.  He's hedging in a way he wasn't before.  Take a look.

One Million Strong --- Join up!

Nice diary, (0.00 / 0)
and I think you're right. I'm not currently an Obama supporter, though I'll switch happily to him in the general, and perhaps before--but I do think he's hedging in the right direction, and has been for some time. I wish he'd engage in more of a full-throated declaration of progressive principles and positions, but I guess that's just not his style. I wonder if, at some point, political necessity will dictate that he do that. I hope so.

[ Parent ]
There's a second metric here (4.00 / 2)
Analyzing the plans themselves is one thing -- and while I disagree on the "no residual forces" thing, I want to put it to the side for a more fundamental question:

Who, among these candidates, do you trust to be sincere?

Because my overriding issue with Edwards isn't what he's saying right now as the fact that I can't escape the feeling that he's pandering to us, in the same way that he ran a DLC campaign for North Carolinians in 1998 and a next-gen-Clinton-gradually-shifting-left in 2003-04.

Let me put it this way: had John Edwards decided in late 2005 that the way to the nomination was by targeting Dean's former supporters (and, just, not screwing up the execution), how would he sound any differently than he's been sounding for the past year?  On what issue is he saying, "You're not getting what you want.  Tough choices have to be made" or "I'm just not as liberal as you are on [X]" (except for gay marriage, on which everyone but Kucinich is short of the right answer -- but even there, Edwards does the maybe-my-wife-will-pull-me-the-right-way extension of hope.) 

So, if he's nominated, or if he's sworn in, what kind of leader will John Edwards be?  What are his authentic instincts?  What is true transformation, and what's just talk?

Yes, this is a cynical post, but I also remember believing so deeply in Bill Clinton in the summer of 1992, and I don't want to get let down again the way I was over the next eight years.


So... (4.00 / 1)
...it's all about 'trust' then?

Clearly you critics don't like Edwards. That's fine but you've tied yourself up into knots with your what come first argument. Withdrawal or negotiation.

Straw man seems to be a good buddy to you all but I gotta say I don't agree with your 'analysis'.

Edwards clearly says what level of troops he wants to 'leave' in Iraq. You say he can't do that.

I say your don't know what you're talking about which is not a surprise as you are using 100% pasteurized Republican frames throughout. How to do this is not what we are debating here.

It's what to do that is in question. And on that issue Edwards clearly is a lot further down the road to a solution than Obama, who doesn't have any idea of what he wants to do, and Clinton, who clearly intends to stay  the course.

The clear goal is to remove the vast majority of our troops from the occupation of Iraq. Edwards understands this the others do not.

Res Ipsa Loquitor.

Peace, Health and Prosperity for Everyone.


[ Parent ]
But I think it -is- all (0.00 / 0)
about trust. Some people trust Obama to act more decisively and progressively than some of his statements might indicate, and some trust that Edwards has truly grown into full-throated progressive. Some, for that matter, trust that Clinton ... I dunno. Will bring back the 90s, except even smarter and more competent, and with a clearer view of the VRWC.

Of course this is all trust.


[ Parent ]
Well put (0.00 / 0)
and I agree. As a citizen and activist you have to go with who you trust. Why you trust them is a complex issue.

But who you trust is your choice and that's as it should be.

Peace, Health and Prosperity for Everyone.


[ Parent ]
Why the democrats wont lose in 2010 (0.00 / 0)
I mean, I became a full-time political activist largely because of the Iraq war, and I am not going to choose a path in a primary election  that runs counter to my beliefs on this matter. I think a lot of other bloggers feel exactly the same way.

This is a great example of why democrats wont be losing based on the war any time soon.  You as a prime Republican demographic have no love at all for the Republican party.  People whose biggest concern in life is the war aren't going to be voting Republican.

And they tend to be in my opinion the isolationist wing of the Republican party.  It is enough for democrats to have them not vote.  Having them vote for democrats is a plus.


Obama Focus on Politics During Iraqi Hearing (0.00 / 0)
Enough About Iraq -- Let's Talk About Me

By Dana Milbank
Wednesday, September 12, 2007; Page A02

Presidential politics are never far from the congressional debate on Iraq. As Gen. David Petraeus testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee yesterday, the two merged into a seamless whole.

Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), a presidential contender, took his seat on the dais in the Hart Senate Office Building, popped a piece of Nicorette gum into his mouth, opened a green folder and began reading a memo, partially visible to reporters behind him. It said:

To: Barack

From: Ben & Denis

Date: September 11, 2007

Re: Iraq Speech -- Differences

As you get ready for press around your speech on Iraq, we wanted to make sure you have on one piece of paper the principle [sic] differences between your speech on Iraq and the most comprehensive on Iraq given by Senator Clinton.

It further reminded Obama that "you argue that by withdrawing 1-2 combat brigades a month you can get all those units out by the end of next year (2008)."

Obama, as it happens, is to deliver a major campaign speech about Iraq in Iowa today -- so it isn't entirely surprising that he would be preparing some political barbs for the Democratic front-runner, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.). Still, Obama's juxtaposition -- contemplating the nakedly political as he prepared to question the top U.S. general in Iraq and the U.S. ambassador to Iraq -- was stark.

http://www.washingto...


Defunding Occupation or Impeaching the President/Vice (4.00 / 1)
I'm glad that Edwards is willing to talk about leaving virtually no force in Iraq, but he hasn't done this very loudly. Saying it only to a liberal blogger is not the same as sending out a press release or making a statement.

But, as the discussion on this blog shows, the residual force issue is a messy one. To me, a more important and timely marker is whether the candidate will call for cutting off funds for the Iraq occupation or call for impeaching the President (and the Vice). These are things that can be done right now by Congress and none of the candidates has come out in favor of these actions. Only those in Congress could actually do it, of course, but all of the candidates could talk about it, encourage Congress to do it, etc. And neither action may actually work -- the funds might not be cut off and Pres/Vice might not be removed from office. But that doesn't preclude talking about it. And the more talking that would go on, the more likely it would happen.

I'd like to see some demonstrated leadership from the candidates. Speaking in favor of these two actions would show me that we actually have a fighter and a leader, not a follower or a wimp.







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