Following up on yesterday's look at the future of racial / ethnic demographics of the electorate, today's look into the future focuses on religious self-identification among the electorate from 2012-2032. Lacking census data on religion (asking about religion in the census is unconstitutional), the best sources for data on religious affiliation in America are the 2007 Pew U.S. Religion Landscape Survey and the 2008 Trinity College American Religious Identification Survey. Here are the age-crosstabs for each survey:
Age-cross tabs, Trinity ARIS (PEF)
Age-cross tabs, Pew Religion Survey (PDF)
The comparison between the 18-29 demographics and the 65+ (in Pew) and 70+ (in ARIS) make the trends clear. Across the two surveys, Mainline Protestants are declining rapidly, Evangelicals and Catholics are declining very slowly, and non-Christians are going to continue to increase as a percentage of the population. For example, among seniors, there are more than twice as many Mainline Protestants as "Nones," (people who don't list a religion, but not necessarily aethists). However, among the under-30 population, there are more than twice as many "Nones" as Mainline Protestants.
Evangelicals and Catholics have done a bit better among younger generations than Mainlines, but are still slightly underrepresented within the under-30 set according to Pew. As such, they are also likely to decline as a percentage of the population over the long-term.
Since both surveys have age crosstabs, they make it possible to forecast future religious affiliation with reasonable accuracy. However, before we make such a forecast, since we are looking at the future of religious from an electoral perspective, it is necessary to sort the numerous religious affiliations into coherent units of partisan preference. The Pew survey allows us to do this, given their far more detailed demographic crosstabs. Looking at the Pew survey, and at exit polls, there are four clear partisan categories:
- White Evangelicals / Born Agains: This is a group that breaks 3-1 Republican. It includes white evangelicals, but also white Mormons and white "other Christians." It is declining from its current 24% of the electorate, but only slowly.
- White Traditionals: This is a group with a slight Republican lean, favoring John McCain by about 7% in the most recent election. It is includes mainly white Catholics and white Mainline Protestants (whose voting habits have very similar partisan splits), and also a smaller amount of white Orthodox Christians. While it is the largest group, forming 37% of the electorate and nearly one-third of the over-18 population, it is also, by far, the fastest shrinking group.
- Non-Christians: This is an overwhelmingly Democratic group, breaking 3-1 for the blues. It includes all self-identified non-Christians, whether they are white or non-white. This group is (very) slightly whiter, and vastly more Asian, than the rest of the population. At 21% of the over 18 population, and 20% of the electorate, it is the smallest group, but it is increasing in size rapidly, mainly due to the growth of Asians and "nones."
- Non-white Christians: This is the most Democratic group of all, favoring President Obama by a 4-1 margin in 2008. It is the second smallest overall group (22% of the over 18 population), and the smallest voting group (representing 19% of the electorate). It is increasing in size, but not quite as quickly as non-Christians. It is also the most ideologically diverse group, given that it has large populations of African-American Christians (20-1 Obama) and Latino and Asian Christians (just under 2-1 Obama).
From now until 2032, these four groups should make up the following percentages of the electorate (or something very, very close to these percentages):
Projected Ethno-religious % of Electorate, Presidential Elections 2008-2032
| Group |
2008 |
2012 |
2016 |
2020 |
2024 |
2028 |
2032 |
| White Evangelicals |
24% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
23% |
23% |
22% |
| White Traditionals |
37% |
35% |
33% |
31% |
29% |
27% |
26% |
| Non-Christians |
20% |
21% |
22% |
23% |
25% |
26% |
27% |
| Non-white Christians |
19% |
20% |
21% |
22% |
23% |
24% |
25% |
The increasing trend toward political polarization in this country is largely the result of this ethno-religious trend. The only one of these groups that is even close to a 50-50 split, "white Traditionals," is quickly declining as a percentage of the population. The increasing polarization in America can thus be understood as largely a result of the end of a white Catholic / white Mainline Protestant era of bi-partisanship. As that group undergoes a rapid decline, all that remains are ethno-religious demographic groups that break overwhelmingly in favor of one party or another. The end result is a more culturally, and thus ideologically, divided country. White Catholics and white Mainline Protestants just have more in common with each other than, say white Evangelicals and non-Christians.
This chart also further emphasizes the long-term electoral trouble the current Republican coalition faces. Combined, the two strongly Democratic groups, non-Christians and non-white Christians, should increase from 39% to about 52% of the electorate between now and 2032. A shift like that would add another 10% to the Democratic margin if partisan preferences within the groups remain the same. (The preferences won't remain the same, of course, but I don't intend to predict how they will change.)
The troubles for Republicans don't end there. Tomorrow, as "the future" series continues, I will discuss why the country will keep becoming gayer. Or, at least, more openly LGBT. |
