Quite a bit has happened to the Senate picture since the most recent update back on April 13th. Here is the latest forecast, based entirely on polling information. The chart could change quite a bit depending on which candidates end up running:
2010 Senate Outlook: Net Democrat Gain of two seats, for a total of 62 Republican-Held Seats Democratic Pickups: 4 (Florida and Missouri, plus two of Kentucky, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Ohio)
(Note: Senate elections where there is no polling showing the incumbent party ahead by less than 10.0% are not examined in detail.
*= Faces primary, but currently the heavy favorite other other announced candidates
** = There is no polling in Arkansas is not for Lincoln vs. Hendren, so previous polling on Lincoln versus other candidates is listed in its place.
*** = Pennsylvania included despite not meeting the "less single-digit incumbent party poll lead" requirement due to the high level of interest and state of flux in the election there.
Details on how to read other aspects of the chart can be found in the extended entry.)
Key changes since the last forecast in the extended entry.
Kentucky: In Kentucky, Jim Bunning will almost certainly retire, making for another open seat campaign. Trey Grayson will be the likely Republican nominee. The Democratic primary remains contested.
New York: The immediate post-nomination polls for January have been dropped from the averages, resulting in greater apparent vulnerability for Kirsten Gillibrand. Polling shows her vulnerable against former Governor George Pataki, but not against current Republican Representative Peter King. Should Pataki decline to run, the state will move out of competitive territory. Also, Gillibrand might not be the nominee, but no candidates have announced they are challenging her at this time.,
Pennsylvania: Just in case you hasn't hear, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania switched parties. Currently, there is no polling against his only announced Democratic opponent (Joe Torsella), so I list him as the likely primary winner. Also, his only announced Republican opponent is Pat Toomey, so only Specter vs. Toomey polling is listed. Much depends on whether former Republican Governor Tom Ridge and / or current Democratic Representative Joe Sestak enter the campaign. The chart will be updated in the event that either officially enter the fray.
Recruitment remains the issue of the day. Outcomes in Delaware (if current Republican Representative Mike Castle runs), Florida (if Republican Governor Charlie Crist runs), New Hampshire (if former Republican Senator John Sununu runs), New York (if former Republican Governor George Pataki runs), North Carolina (if Democratic attorney General Roy Cooper runs), and Pennsylvania (if either former Republican Governor Tom Ridge or current Democratic Representative Joe Sestak run), will all be heavily influenced by recruiting.
The forecast of at least six states largely dependant upon candidate recruitment. In five of those cases (Delaware, Florida, New Hampshire, New York and Pennsylvania), whether or not the state will be competitive depends primarily on Republican recruitment. This means the 2010 Senate campaigns are, for now, largely dependant on NRSC chairman Jon Cornyn's efforts to bring potential top-tier candidates into the campaign. If he fails in every case, then the forecast from a Democratic pickup of two seats to a Democratic pickup of 3-5 seats. If he succeeds in all five cases, then the forecast would show a Democratic gain of only 1 seat.
How to read this chart:
In the "Type" column, "Special" refers to an election due to a Senate appointment. In the two candidate columns.
"Hypothetical" means there are no officially announced candidates for the party in the seat.
When there are official candidates who have been polled, no unannounced candidates are considered.
In the two polling columns, "High Margin" is the polling average for the best general election matchup for Democrats according to 2009 polling, and "Low Margin" is the worst.
A dark blue color refers to a polling average that favors Democrats by 7.0% or more. Light blue favors Democrats by 2.7% to 6.9%. Yellow is between 2.6% for either party. Light red and dark red favors Republicans by the same margins as light and dark blue favor Democrats.
Backlashes appear in the "# of polls column" in states where a different number of polls were used in the "high margin" and "low margin" averages."
STATE BLOGS
