Today's look at the future of the electorate focuses not on cultural demographics, but rather on reapportionment of the Electoral College and U.S. House seats. Here are three possible outcomes for the post-2010 reapportionment, which will first be used in the 2012 elections for both President and U.S. House:
2010 Reapportionment
State
Guaranteed
Possible
Outside Chance
AZ
+1
+2
+2
CA
0
0
-1
FL
+1
+1
+1
GA
+1
+1
+1
IA
-1
-1
-1
IL
0
-1
-1
LA
-1
-1
-1
MA
-1
-1
-1
MI
-1
-1
-1
MN
0
-1
-1
MO
0
-1
-1
NC
0
0
+1
NJ
-1
-1
-1
NV
+1
+1
+1
NY
-1
-1
-1
OH
-1
-2
-2
OR
0
+1
+1
PA
-1
-1
-1
SC
0
+1
+1
TX
+3
+4
+4
UT
+1
+1
+1
Here are the different electoral changes for 2012, based on these models:
Guaranteed: Obama 361-177 McCain.
With Republicans winning Florida, Indiana, Nebraska-02, North Carolina, and Ohio (the "low hanging fruit"), it becomes Obama 287-251 Republican. The key states for Obama to hold would be Virginia (13), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4) and Pennsylvania (20). Republicans would need 18 electoral votes from that group in order to tie, and 19 to win outright.
Possible: Obama 359-179 McCain.
The same scenario as above, but the low-hanging Republican fruit makes it Obama 285-253 Republican. They would need 16 electoral votes from the key swing states to tie, and 17 to win.
Outside Chance: Obama 359-179 McCain
The same scenario as above, but after the low-hanging fruit Republicans would need 15 electoral votes to tie, and 16 to win.
In the extended entry, I look at the 2020 and 2030 reapportionments, which are more positive for Democrats.
In 2020, this projection actually adds one electoral vote to the Obama states (technically two, but the loss of a seat in Nebraska will make winning an electoral vote there untenable). In 2030, it adds four electoral votes (actually five, just with the same caveat). Unfortunately, most of those gains are in Florida, which is only marginally blue. However, it is entirely possible that the population growth in Florida, along with other changing demographics, will make it a more reliably blue state.
Additionally, Democrats have little to fear from redistricting in the House of Representatives according to these projections. This is true even though the three high growth states--Arizona, Florida and Texas--all have a Republican trifecta (Governor plus both branches of the state legislature):
In Texas, Republicans already have a 20-12 advantage in the House delegation, making further gains difficult under any map. Additionally, the last time Republicans tried to draw an even more pro-GOP map, it was partially over-ruled by a judge, resulting in the current map.
All in all, it seems unlikely that future redistricting and re-apportionment will have a significant impact on either Presidential or House elections. One possible exception to this would be if Florida, which will likely remain the pre-eminent swing state for decades, instead became a "base" state for either party. Democratic control of state government in 2020 would significantly alter House politics, just as a swing toward Republicans would significantly alter Presidential electoral politics.
STATE BLOGS
