PA-SEN: Anybody But Arlen, Or A Genuine Progressive?

by: David Sirota

Fri May 08, 2009 at 18:28


I support a vigorous Democratic primary against Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter (D), just like I support a vigorous Democratic primary against Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet (D) just like I support a vigorous primary against every sitting lawmaker in Congress. My support for as many vigorous primaries as possible may offend Establishment-minded activists, party-first sycophants, and other assorted incumbent-worshiping starfuckers, but that's fine with me because my support is based on the principle that the more democracy and elections and the less entitlement royalty, the better.

In the case of Specter and Bennet, I particularly support a primary because I think Democratic primaries create a dynamic whereby especially conservative/corporate candidates like these two are forced compete to see who is more centrist - and by "centrist" I don't mean the term as defined by Washington, D.C., I mean the term as defined by public opinion polls. Indeed, as proven over and over and over again, progressive position on most major issues happens to be right in the mainstream center of public opinion, while the D.C. "center" is far to the right of the mainstream center of public opinion.

However, while I'm really psyched that progressive groups are jumping into the effort to create the conditions for a primary aginst Specter, I'm a tad concerned by this from the Politico:

David Sirota :: PA-SEN: Anybody But Arlen, Or A Genuine Progressive?
The best-known Democratic challenger to Specter would likely be Rep. Joe Sestak, who represents a suburban Philadelphia-based district. Earlier this week, Sestak left open the possibility that he would jump into the race, citing Specter's party switch as a cause for concern. Another Democrat, Joe Torsella, the former head of the Constitution Center, entered the race in February, and said that he will stay in it.

With its announcement Friday, MoveOn added its voice to a chorus of other liberal groups that have been calling for a competitive Democratic Senate primary in Pennsylvania, including Democracy for America and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, which have teamed up for a separate, five-day online survey designed to gauge support for a "Draft Sestak" movement. .

First of all, is there any concrete proof that Sestak would be the "best known" candidate in Pennsylvania Democratic politics to run against Specter? I ask because it's hard for me to believe that Sestak is better known than, say, former Rep. Joe Hoeffel (D)*, a longtime (and current) Montgomery County Commissioner who has already run statewide against Specter. Recall that in Pennsylvania, many successful statewide candidates from Specter himself to Ed Rendell have had to run multiple times and lose to finally win office. I know the automatic brain-dead assumption in D.C. is that sitting House members are automatically very strong statewide candidates, but that's not always the case, especially in a place like Pennsylvania (think Rep. Ron Klink's recent and disastrously failed campaign to unseat Rick Santorum).

Second, and I ask this question in all sincerity and not in a leading kind of way, is Sestak a proven progressive? I just don't know, and I think it's fair to ask when considering whether progressive groups should automatically start beating the drum for him in a primary out of an Anbody But Arlen impulse.** If he's not, and that drum beat has sounded for him and not, say, for recruiting a known progressive vote-getter (could be Hoeffel, could be someone else, doesn't matter), then it means those progressive groups are simply echoing D.C. conventional wisdom that says sitting congresspeople are automatically the best likely to win - as I said, a dubious assumption. More importantly, progressive groups jumping behind a candidate who isn't progressive in a Democratic primary would seem to defeat the movement utility of a primary.

If a contested Democratic primary's value to the progressive movement is the creation of a competition between candidates to be progressive, then backing a candidate who isn't progressive probably wouldn't actually create that competition, or at least not nearly the intensity of such a competition as necessary (though I could be convinced that if it's a choice between no Democratic primary against Specter and one between a mediocre Democrat and Specter, the latter is still better for the progressive movement than the former).

Sestak has lately been making lots of progressive noises, and that's great. And as I said, it's entirely possible he's a solid progressive - and if he is, then there's a good case to be made that our fledgling movement should get behind him. I just don't know if that assumption/premise is true, though - and I'm asking folks who know if it is.

I raise all these issues because the decision about which primary candidate to back is a serious one, and if it's made only with D.C. conventional wisdom in mind, and not movement goals, then the primary becomes an exercise in D.C. conventional wisdom, not movement building.

* Full disclosure: I worked for Hoeffel briefly more than a decade ago. I'm not touting the idea of him making a run at all - hell, I don't even know if he would run, would want to run, or would even make the right candidate in this race. I'm just citing him as an example to make a bigger point.

** I know the canned response to this from progressive groups is that they are "polling their members" and thus their "members get to decide" - consequently creating the image that the leadership of these groups played an absolutely objective role and had no hand in picking and choosing the specific candidate to back. But that doesn't really fly - leadership of groups are certainly right to involve their memberships in decisions, but that leadership can't really claim to have no impact on the direction that their memberships often choose to take. When you ask about a "Draft Sestak" campaign, for instance, you aren't saying "should we draft A candidate" you are asking whether a specific candidate - and that specific candidate only - should be drafted, meaning it's a leading question.


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Lets face it .. (4.00 / 2)
if Specter wasn't weasily as regards EFCA or other parts of Obama's agenda .. we wouldn't be having his discussion .. also .. I think most people of the "Draft Sestak" movement are behind him not because he is a great progressive .. but because he has the best chance of the known possible candidates to win ... Pennsylvania is an expensive place to run a statewide race(Especially a Senate seat) .. and who else will take on the Democratic Establishment?  What movement Progressive would take on the race?  And be able to raise the money necessary to make it a competitive race?  When you boil it down .. that is why there is the encouragement for Sestak.  It is more pragmatic I guess you'd say

I'll repeat (0.00 / 0)
That was my first question - what is the assumption of "pragmatism" based on? Purely D.C. conventional wisdom that has little application in a state like Pennsylvania based on years of history (again, think Specter's career, Rendell's ascent, or Rep. Ron Klink's utter failure)? Or something else more substantive?

First of all, is there any concrete proof that Sestak would be the "best known" candidate in Pennsylvania Democratic politics to run against Specter? I ask because it's hard for me to believe that Sestak is better known than, say, former Rep. Joe Hoeffel (D)*, a longtime (and current) Montgomery County Commissioner who has already run statewide against Specter. Recall that in Pennsylvania, many successful statewide candidates from Specter himself to Ed Rendell have had to run multiple times and lose to finally win office. I know the automatic brain-dead assumption in D.C. is that sitting House members are automatically very strong statewide candidates, but that's not always the case, especially in a place like Pennsylvania (think Rep. Ron Klink's recent and disastrously failed campaign to unseat Rick Santorum).


[ Parent ]
Best Known among likely challengers (0.00 / 0)
Is the way I would interpret the claim.  If the assumption is that Hoeffel is unlikely to run, then who else is there?  I'm assuming if Hoeffel was considered likely to run, we would have heard it by now.

Also, I don't think that sitting House members are automatically considered to be very strong candidates.  I think they are assumed to be below governors or others who have won statewide office in how strong they are initially, but ahead of people who have won state/local elections that aren't statewide, such as state legislators.  A sitting Congressman could be deemed the strongest of a weak bunch.

Things You Don't Talk About in Polite Company: Religion, Politics, the Occasional Intersection of Both


[ Parent ]
We should start in Nevada, Colorado, and Delaware (0.00 / 0)
They are all small to medium sized states that don't take a lot of fundraising to win in. Sestak isn't perfect, but he'd be another vote for EFCA, and let wavering dems see the writing on the wall. Once EFCA passes there will be more unions, and the democratic party will begin to improve from that alone. Colorado Nevada and Delaware are also more progressive than machine states like PA.

[ Parent ]
the Durbin-Specter Bill - public financing of congressional elections (0.00 / 0)
     How bad is Specter?
    I have never lived in PA, and I did not pay much attention to national politics until the horror of the W. years.
    I have heard two theories of Specter here. One is that Specter is an incurable die-hard Conservative, and that therefore we can never count on him to help us in any way. The second theory of Specter is that he is an unprincipled mercenary, whose only goal is to get into office and stay there.
    Those who believe that Specter is a mercenary believe that is why Specter is supported by Rendell and Obama. They believe that in short order, Specter will become as left-wing as necessary to stay in office.
    I do not know which theory is correct, but I want to mention one fact about Specter that recently surprised me. Arlen Specter recently co-sponsored a bill for the public financing of congressional elections: the Durbin-Specter Bill.
    Changing the financing of campaigns, to use more public financing and small-dollar contributions, and to allow less influence by wealthy special interests, seems to be a core progressive value.
    Does anyone know anything about this bill? Is it just a publicity stunt, or does it actually stand a chance of becoming law? Is is a sign that Specter is a mercenary (who now serves the Left), or is it a sign that Specter is some sort of oddball maverick moderate?

Luke 12:48 "to whom much is given, of him shall much be required". Would Jesus want progressive taxation, or regressive taxation?

[ Parent ]
Here's the thing... (4.00 / 3)
...if we mount a massive campaign to put Sestak in place of Specter, he gets a 6 year pass to the United States Senate, where he will join a moderate majority with a weasel leader (currently anyway).  If he moves back to the right and essentially votes the same way Specter would with one or two exceptions, it will be more costly to the progressive cause.  The media will tell the story for six years..."the progressive's put him in, he's their guy, he is saying XYZ is bad, those progressives are just too radical to listen to him", and similar crap like that.  Specter on the other hand is an ornery old guy who has been ornery as a Republican and will be ornery as a Democrat (maybe more so) but he isn't ever going to be "our guy".  Reid will take blame for him, it was his deal.

So, my position is a) there absolutely should be a primary and b) we should absolutely support a true progressive in a primary vs Specter.  The thing we should not do is get behind anyone who looks like they may be able to beat Specter that happens to be a Democrat.

I honestly don't know much about Sestak, other than having people I know who have worked for him say he is horrific to work for, I haven't seen him as much of a leader on anything other than his own career.

The reason most people are citing to back him, $3mil in the bank, is the reason we should NOT jump into his camp.  He can raise the money with or without us, the question is will he move left or right to get money, will he move left, take our money and then glide back to the right?

We have enough spine deficient 'moderates' in the Senate, we can't afford to give another one a six year ride with our seal of approval for free.  Make them earn it.

If Sestak is going to step up and be a strong progressive, absolutely we should be there with him.  If Torsella is going to be the progressive leader, we should be with him.  If neither of them are going to be great for us, focus our energy and resources on races where there is a real progressive leader.


[ Parent ]
i'm curious -- can you elaborate on what your friends said? (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
Not really. (4.00 / 1)
Has just been a "wouldn't work for him again" kind of thing.  Came up in a discussion about how absurdly "normal" and "easy to be around" a candidate of mine was at RootsCamp following the 06 elections.

I've heard he has a reputation on the hill for heavy staff turnover as well, I haven't dug in to legistorm to see if there is truth there or not.


[ Parent ]
fair enough. the reason i ask is that i put a lot of stock in whether the candidate (0.00 / 0)
treats their staff well, as i think it is perhaps the most underrated gauge of how progressive they are, and how effective they might be in bringing other lawmakers on board with their agenda.  not to get back into primary mode, but this was actually one of the reasons why i supported obama:  i had heard from a number of friends on capitol hill that he was not only good to his staff, but good to the capitol hill staff as well.    

[ Parent ]
ps -- looks like a nice guy :-) (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
Sestak-as-boss (4.00 / 3)
Sept '07:
We knew about the turnover of three press secretaries who would send out more news releases most weeks than then entire Pennsyltucky delegation. And we had heard the talk about crazy hours. But frankly didn't realize the extent of the problems in freshman U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak's office.

Staffers are expected to work 14-hour days, seven days a week and go months without time off. Even the former vice admiral's former sailors would get R&R to get in drunken bar fights and visit prostitutes and local girls in Thailand, the Philippines or some other port.

Sestak's such a demanding boss that 13 staffers have quit. The latest was Brian Branton, who worked on Capitol Hill for nine years, but quick after only six months as Sestak's chief of staff, according to The Hill newspaper.



[ Parent ]
i see your point, but in this case i think we should be encouraging sestak to run (4.00 / 1)
he is saying the right things (on EFCA and DADT, notably), and he can only serve to move specter to the left between now and the primary.  leaving aside the question of whether sestak is and will continue to be a staunch progressive, pushing him to run against specter has the potential to move the 'realm of the possible' in the senate to the left.  and i think there is reason to believe sestak will be a reliable vote for cloture in the senate and one of the 50 most progressive senators, neither of which can be said about specter.  

now, on the question of whether another candidate might be better than sestak: sure, there would be more progressive potential candidates.  but do they have money in the bank?  are they willing to take on specter and the dem establishment?  until there are realistic alternatives, we shouldn't avoid getting behind sestak because he isn't entirely ideal.        


I'll repeat (0.00 / 0)
That was my first question - what is the assumption of "pragmatism" based on? Purely D.C. conventional wisdom that has little application in a state like Pennsylvania based on years of history (again, think Specter's career, Rendell's ascent, or Rep. Ron Klink's utter failure)? Or something else more substantive?

First of all, is there any concrete proof that Sestak would be the "best known" candidate in Pennsylvania Democratic politics to run against Specter? I ask because it's hard for me to believe that Sestak is better known than, say, former Rep. Joe Hoeffel (D)*, a longtime (and current) Montgomery County Commissioner who has already run statewide against Specter. Recall that in Pennsylvania, many successful statewide candidates from Specter himself to Ed Rendell have had to run multiple times and lose to finally win office. I know the automatic brain-dead assumption in D.C. is that sitting House members are automatically very strong statewide candidates, but that's not always the case, especially in a place like Pennsylvania (think Rep. Ron Klink's recent and disastrously failed campaign to unseat Rick Santorum).


[ Parent ]
my argument was not exactly based on pragmatism (4.00 / 1)
but rather on a claim about what is the best option that is actually on the table.  if a more progressive candidate starts making noises about running, there is no reason why we couldn't support them instead of sestak.  but right now, it doesn't look like anyone else is considering running.

thus, why wouldn't we support sestak if he is running to specter's left?  if nothing else, it pushes specter left.  

i'm from PA and have an awareness of the political dynamics there.  i think we could elect someone more progressive than sestak.  but right now, no one else is talking about running...  



[ Parent ]
David ... (0.00 / 0)
I'll try my hand at answering ... What is the "pragmatism" based on? .. It's based on any known quantity(Schwartz .. Josh Shapiro) saying they aren't running .. it's based on the fact that I don't know of any Ned Lamont type progressives(meaning they can self fund) in PA .... I don't know of any Democrats(besides Sestak) that have made any noises whatsoever about challenging the Obama/Rendell nexus here in PA .. Are there any Democrats(again .. besides Sestak) that have the balls to tell Obama and Rendell to pound sand .. and run against Snarlin' Arlen .. and in a way are arrogant enough to think they can win? .. put it this way ... if a PA Democrat not named Sestak or Specter is in the Senate come 2011 .. it's going to be someone most(if not all) of us haven't heard of before .. besides I'll believe it when I see it that Torsella is a real candidate .. I believe he is a Rendell/DLC stalking horse(meaning .. the just in case ... given Specter's health history) ... if there is a Progressive out there .. I'd love to hear it .. I know he's a great guy .. but Tom Geoghegan's run for Rahmbo's old seat didn't go too well ... Does Bowers know any Progressives in PA that can raise money .... and know how to run a campaign?

[ Parent ]
exactly (0.00 / 0)
I agree with most of this.  

And I am 'on the ground', and no, there is not a secret progressive waiting to come off of the bench.


[ Parent ]
my answers to your questions (4.00 / 2)
#2. No, he's not going to be very progressive, based on his House record, but he's still an improvement on Specter. I'll add that my impression from recent votes is that new (elected) Democratic senators have a much better voting record than old ones, taken as a group.

#1. No "proof" is necessary because Politico says the "best-known Democratic challenger to Specter would likely be Rep. Joe Sestak" which is much more about likely to run than best known.  Ed Rendell is better known too, but he's not going be challenger, and I haven't heard a peep that Hoeffel is running since Specter's announcement.  Sestak's statements, however, make a run very possible if not likely. Statements about what humans are likely to do in the future obviously don't have "proofs" by definition.

I do think it's quite reasonable to ask for a better candidate or decide to put your personal resources elsewhere.



New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.


Agree (4.00 / 1)
Agree with you on both points. The fact that nobody seems to even be asking #1 is extremely odd. I mean, Pennsylvania is a big state, and a state whose statewide winners have often run multiple times and lost before actually winning (Casey is an exception, largely because of his name, though he ran for governor and lost right before running for Senate). The idea that a sitting congressman who has never run statewide before is automatically the best known and/or strongest statewide candidate against Specter by virtue only of the fact that he currently holds an office seems absolutely ludicrous.

[ Parent ]
agree too (4.00 / 3)
Yes, I don't think in a vacuum, maybe even an open primary, I'd pick Sestak.  (I also think that in Reid's place I'd welcome Specter, because we have to get major legislation through the Senate this year... if we have bigger majorities we can improve a health care bill, but to get nothing would risk failure for another generation.)

But... I've got Sestak on TV seemingly willing to run, and that's good enough for me right now.  I'm not sure he will run, I read a good dissent at TPM (I think) that argues the establishment support for Specter will drive him off: his great fundraising in the past was attributed to the Clintons.

I bet I'll have complaints about his votes in the Senate, but I also bet I'd have more complaints about a lot of other senators.  I'm very happy with Lautenberg and Menendez right now, but there's nothing more to be done in my state.

I hope you find someone good in Colorado.  That's maybe more important than Specter, after all he is pretty old.  I promise $25 to whoever you find for what it's worth.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.


[ Parent ]
He's only the best of those who want it. (4.00 / 2)
Reps. Schwartz and Murphy have declined; ditto Josh Shapiro.  I saw our mutual former boss about two months ago, and he just seemed really pleased with being a County Commissioner and having fell into an accidental majority.  I doubt he wants that 67-county slog (and endless fundraising) again.  

Is there anyone in the Gov race we'd rather have against Specter?  I don't think so.  And as questionable as Sestak's voting pattern may be at times, he's bought into the fundamental message that's needed for this race: we need a loyal Democrat who's a true Democrat.


[ Parent ]
to develop my thoughts... (4.00 / 4)
...from previous comments, I think there are four types of votes that matter for our Democratic candidates:

0. Vote to make Democrats control the Senate, not a worry til 2014 (I think).

1. Vote with 60 Dems to overcome a Republican filibuster (most legislation.)

2. Vote with 51 Dems on budgets etc., on the type of vote Bayh could get most of his friends to vote against.  (Example: Clinton's budget, Obama's budget, health care reconciliation)

3. Be a "fierce advocate" for progressive ideas and legislation. (Ex: Sanders, Wellstone, Feingold)

Specter is with us for #0 (if he doesn't switch back) and might be with us for #1 on some important votes (that's what Reid and Obama are counting on.)

I think Sestak with with us on #0, #1 and #2 on nearly all votes; not 3.  

I don't think it's easy to think of legislation that Sestak would block that wouldn't already be dead from numerous existing Democratic senators.



New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.


[ Parent ]
Patrick Murphy (of the 8th District)? (0.00 / 0)
In the 2007 congressional vote rankings by the non-partisan National Journal, Murphy scored a 56.5 liberal rating and a 43.5 conservative rating, which is considered "centrist" in the Journal's rankings.
 


I pretty much agree with everyone else's comments (4.00 / 4)
No, Sestak cannot reasonably be considered a progressive. DADT is the only thing that really comes to mind that he's really on board with at this point. If he supports EFCA not watered down into meaninglessness, then that would be a major plus in his favor. But on foreign policy (which really means DOD abroad), he's center-right. I haven't seen him say anything progressive about the economy, but maybe I wasn't paying attention or something and missed it. But on the whole, I don't think supporting Sestak should be based on his progressiveness, given his centrist leanings. But that's okay.

Progressive or no, I do respect the guy. He seems to be a straight shooter for the most part, although we should probably remember that he initially ran (and won) partially being against the war in Iraq--because he reversed his position right after he took office. He's a bit too gung ho on the National Securitude bandwagon for my taste in general. On the other hand, he might come around on healthcare at some point. Right now he's so "mainstream" he won't be much help in that department. But that's a big IF.

I personally wouldn't want to devote too much in the way of resources at this point to support Sestak, but the idea of making a real statement to GOP traitors, "We don't want you either," is worth making. Seriously, who wouldn't like to see Specter go spend more time with his family, for it's own sake?

Defeating Specter with anyone marginally better would also really piss off and humiliate Harry Reid and that's always a good idea, methinks.

As for how it would benefit the movement, that seems debatable to me. I'm not sure it would, unless progressive influence turns out to be key in assigning Specter's parking spot to someone else. Such victories are good for momentum, whatever the case about Sestak's leanings. I just don't want us to get burned by helping someone get elected who turns into a rightie after he takes the oath of office.

"More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly." -Woody Allen, My Speech to the Graduates


Here is the way I see it (4.00 / 2)
I do support Anybody but Arlen because I think it's important that he isn't able to get away with this. Why Sestak? Beacuse in the wake of Specter's switch he was the only one willing to publicly question Specter's switch and keep the option of a primary open. If someone else had took a stand they might have gotten interest. No other prominent candidate really has.

That's my take.

As for Colorado, any word on a primary there? I think that is another very important race.

John McCain: Beacuse lobbyists should have more power


Why does Torsella get ignored? (4.00 / 1)
He was in the race before Specter switched, he says he isn't dropping out after, why do I see constantly repeated statements that Sestak is the only person stepping forward?

As I've posted before, I don't know much about Torsella, but he has raised over half a mil already and that is pretty impressive for a first timer this far out.  Is there a reason to write him off without consideration or are we just following the media's lead?


[ Parent ]
i haven't looked into him too extensively, but (0.00 / 0)
from what i've heard, he doesn't really sound like a solid progressive.  i feel like the word that people have most used to describe him is 'hack.'  

[ Parent ]
Rhodes Scholar, not hack. (4.00 / 1)
Incredibly bright and well-liked guy.  Just doesn't seem to be strong ideologically -- at least, he's hidden it so far.

[ Parent ]
As I have said elsewhere .. (4.00 / 1)
Torsella is Rendell's stalking horse .. just to be safe .. given Specter's health/age ... he has a web page up .. but nothing about issues on it .. just the general "it's time for a change" nonsense

[ Parent ]
His wife worked for Specter (0.00 / 0)
he's a close ally of Ed Rendell. Somehow it seems hard to believe that he's really willing to run a strong race against Specter. He seems to be bright and fairly likable but I'm not convinced he has the follow through.  

John McCain: Beacuse lobbyists should have more power

[ Parent ]
And he was the former head .. (0.00 / 0)
of the Constitution Center here in Philly ..  which means he knows "the establishment" .. of both parties I am sure

[ Parent ]
Let me advance an alternate theory (4.00 / 4)
I believe that in this race in particular, it doesn't matter how progressive Sestak is.  The important thing is to defeat Specter from what appears to be the left, not because of Specter, but because of what he symbolizes.

This race, unlike nearly every other left-vs.-center primary battle, has national implications.  The media is plugged into this, the DC establishment is plugged into this.  Because of that fact, it's more important for us to send a signal to the Beltway that behavior such as Specter's will not be tolerated in the Democratic Party -- even if the vehicle we send it with isn't a progressive either.

The best comparison is the Lamont vs. Lieberman primary battle in 2006.  Progressives thought Lamont was one of us, and he never had a chance to prove differently (because, of course, he lost the Senate seat).  But even if Lamont was just snowing us -- and some people have argued that he was -- the DC and media narrative was that progressives and the Netroots succeeded in knocking off an outspoken moderate with a liberal because the moderate he was undermining progressive causes.

That's exactly the message we want to send by defeating Specter -- and it's much more important than the political orientation of PA's junior Senator come 2011.  Part of creating a progressive revolution is acknowledging that we can't replace every Blue Dog, and thus recognizing that our best bet is cowing the remaining Blue Dogs into submission.  Every Blue Dog on the Hill trembled when Lamont knocked off Lieberman in the '06 primary.  If Sestak can replicate that triumph -- and in a way (thanks to PA law) that precludes Specter from simply running again in the general -- that's more important than what kind of Senator Sestak ends up being.

Given this argument, it behooves progressives to be pragmatic in this race in particular, even if we stand on principle in every other race.  Sestak is the guy who can get the job done, because he's sitting on a $3 million bankroll.  I wouldn't underestimate the ability of power brokers like Rendell and Obama to shut off donations to any candidate who takes on Specter in the primary, even someone with national connections like Hoeffel.  Sestak alone can make the race because no one can take away the $3 million he already has, which should by itself be enough to do the job if need be.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...


Interesting case (4.00 / 1)
I think you make some pretty valid points here. Good comment - and this is what I meant in my last post by the difference between criticism and vitriol. This is exactly the kind of comment - and actually all the comments in this post are - that is really genuinely constructive.

[ Parent ]
Interesting (0.00 / 1)
Pretty valid points in your article. Good stuff.

College Athletic Scholarships


[ Parent ]
$3 million won't get the job done in PA .. (4.00 / 1)
not when Specter has a lot more .. but the 3 million is a good start .. and a great base from which to build .. since the only likely source for Sestak is the individual contributions(besides the unions) .. since Rendell/Obama will likely put the hammer on a lot of people that might otherwise contribute

[ Parent ]
There is a bit of disconnect on money... (4.00 / 1)
First, we are talking about the primary only at this point, in that who ever the nominee is will have no problem with financing for the general, the President, DNC, DSCC and most of the "big name" Senators not on a ballot in 2010 will be helping out as needed.

Second, there is a point of diminishing returns - even more significant in a primary than a general.  The costs of a robust field campaign are the first bill to cover, and the cost doesn't change much based on how much the other guy spends.  The costs are fairly fixed.

So you have this level of funding required to run the base of the campaign, the real nuts and bolts of outreach, persuasion and gotv.  Which doesn't cost nearly as much as people think, compared to TV ads, field staff are cheap as hell.

The next step is running effective media ads, something very few campaigns (on either side) have done in recent years.  Costs have skyrocketed, efficacy has gone the other direction.  Specter will have two major angles A) I am who I have been, the guy with seniority and the guy who has been here, in new and improved Democratic Flavor, with added f u to the party and B) Nasty, Bloodthirsty, Vile, Horrific...you know, the ads Hillary Clinton ran in the primary...  Follow the path of that campaign in your mind, do you see the opponent needing to match him dollar for dollar?  I think the minimum threshold is in the ballpark of 3 to 1 (for media dollars), with an expectation that all said and done Specter will have around 12-15M available for the primary.  So I'm putting the cost of the campaign to beat him at 4-6M, 8M on the high outside.

If there is a strong challenge mounted relatively early, I believe the 'deal' Harry Reid made will quickly disintegrate, the financial backing will disappear and Specter will be left out dangling, on the outs with both parties.  Remember that Reid doesn't control any of the purse strings and the people that do might see this as an opportunity to take the leadership after the election.  Those people, may in fact, need to be the targets of our efforts (DSCC Chair Menendez and the ED, former DSCC chair Schumer, DNC Chair Kaine, DNC ED, President Obama, White House Legislative Director, etc.)

The key to any primary challenge is a strong field program that identifies, recruits and gotv's without hesitation.  How many people will vote in the PRIMARY that have ever voted for Arlen Specter in a primary before?  Given the 53% Specter got in the General, he didn't display much crossover appeal in 04, where he spent 21mil to his opponents 5M.  We know the demographics have shifted substantially since then (it's a big part of why he switched parties).  He is on the run in fear, why are we the ones cowering?

Let's find the right progressive and push him forward.  If it is Sestak, fine, if its Torsella, fine.  If Sestak is going to not be our guy, but run anyway, I say stay the hell out of it.  Let him deal with it, I don't see the progressives being a big impact on a non-progressive campaign with all these circumstances.  If he isn't going to be one of us, we need to focus on the candidates that are.  Gelber(FL-primary), the Ohio nominee maybe, Hodes, Gillibrand if she stays on the progressive track she is on, NC, MO, lots of good races potentially...lets put our eggs in the baskets we actually want to take home.


[ Parent ]
ah, I left out something... (0.00 / 0)
...once a candidate reaches the threshold of legitimacy, they will receive an almost magical boost in fund raising.  The media is going to be ALL OVER THIS RACE, like Obama and Clinton, Webb v Allen, etc - lots of free media coverage statewide and nationally.  That exposure can be capitalized on by a good campaign staff to fill the coffers pretty quick.

In addition, Toomey is going to be lobbing bombs at Specter and/or the Democratic field with his Club for Growth motivated wisdom.  If Specter tries to play the middle, he may end up looking like...a wet cardboard cutout...soft and squishy.  Not exactly voter friendly.  There is an opportunity for his primary challenger to effectively work with Toomey's efforts and squeeze Specter in to a very narrow band of the spectrum.  Unlike Lieberman/Lamont, Club for Growth is going to see that Toomey is funded and is presenting a Conservative message, loudly.  Shhhhh, don't tell them they are helping us!


[ Parent ]
It is not about Sestak being perfect (4.00 / 2)
I don't think this is progressive groups simply drafting someone.  The reality on the ground here in Pennsylvania is that there is very little to choose from because we don't have a huge bench, and we also have the 2010 Gov. race.  There really just isn't a ton there

So, for example, Joe Hoeffel, who would probably be a better Senator, does not really seem viable to me.  Where will he raise the money from?   Besides some netroots support, Rendell would put a stop to it.  And, Hoeffel, who I really like, underperformed quite a bit versus Kerry.  At the very least, he lost some independent votes, but probably Dem ones too.

Here are some avenues forward I see for a non Sestak.  Basically, you would need to have one of the these (I am sure it is a non exclusive list)

1)  Someone who is independently wealthy and can self finance and who would be taken seriously.  Thus far, I don't think we have any of those, with the exception of one peculiar character, Tom Knox, who is running for Governor.

2) Someone with a national profile, who could raise money even after Rendell and Biden and Obama try to stop it.  Basically, this could be Allyson Schwartz through Emily's List and the like, and she could probably energize people against with the judges, Anita Hill, etc.  However, she is also a centrist, so, that defeats the point.

3) Someone who is really popular in Philadelphia.  And I mean in the City, with a chance to pile up votes there, despite what is going on in the race as a whole.  The only people I think that would fit that bill would be Rendell, or one of our Congressman.

Sestak has a lot of money.  Combined with some national support and some labor support, he would have enough to be competitive.  And, despite the Gov. telling him otherwise, he wants to run, while most other candidates have dropped out.  There are no illusions about him, or that he is magically good Senator.  He is a Democrat, who is willing to run, and can win.  I am really not sure who else fits that bill.


What was Hoeffel's campaign like in 04? (0.00 / 0)
Outspent 21M to less than 5M, how much did they rely on the Kerry field program instead of running their own?  To my memory, the race got no national attention, which will obviously be different this time out.

Under performing Kerry would seem to be a likely expectation given that Specter is a moderate Senator with a fairly robust portfolio, particularly when you look at his emotional draws - cancer survivor/research supporter, has been involved with many of the children's health care efforts, Vets Affairs, etc.

That he only got 53% tells me the race was very winnable in 04, and should be even more winnable as a Democratic Primary in 2010.

All of this goes up another notch easier if there is a competitive Republican primary statewide or even in one or two congressional districts.  Specter at this point has to bank on a number of R's (and indies) crossing over to vote in the D primary to save his ass (a la Lieberman).  A couple competitive R primaries and he could be blown out.


[ Parent ]
Hoeffel underperformed Kerry ... (4.00 / 2)
cause a lot of unions backed Specter in that race(yeah .. talk about getting burned)

[ Parent ]
and what is with the 3rd party candidate... (0.00 / 0)
James N Clymer, 4% @ 210k raised.

4% is a sizable number for a 3rd party candidate.


[ Parent ]
National Chairman of the Constitution Party (0.00 / 0)
So all those votes came out of Specter's hide, not Hoeffel's.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
Also means it wont impact the Primary (0.00 / 0)
And would be an asset in the General if he (or an associate thereof) is going in 2010.

[ Parent ]
There won't be a strong CP race in PA in 2010 (0.00 / 0)
They know very well that most of their voters will be going enthusiastically for Toomey.  It would be like running a Green Party candidate against Kucinich.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
don't assume Toomey is their nominee (0.00 / 0)
Gerlach, Meehan and others are lurking.

[ Parent ]
Relied entirely on Kerry's field program (4.00 / 1)
All our money went to media (and staff salaries); the combined campaign field HQ were two floors upstairs from ours.

[ Parent ]
But where is the money coming from? (0.00 / 0)
If he got outspent that badly before, where is he getting it from now?

[ Parent ]
No DSCC support in 2004 (0.00 / 0)
They opted to lose in NC, SC, KY and other states instead of investing in PA.  And, obvs, Rendell did not open the spigots.

[ Parent ]
They always were smart (0.00 / 0)
And I am not at all trying to denigrate Hoeffel, nor his campaign.

But, where would he get the money from now if he not only has no DSCC support, but has Rendell et al actively dissuading people?  


[ Parent ]
I don't think Hoeffel has any interest in this. (0.00 / 0)
But he, like any other Dem, would have to tap national pools of progressive money for the race -- and Ned Lamont only raised $3.5M from Folks Who Aren't Himself in direct contributions to that race.  Sestak, bless him, already has about that much CoH.

[ Parent ]
I hadn't considered Knox ... (0.00 / 0)
... "peculiar" doesn't even start it.  But he does have money thanks to his Crusading career.  

Also, Charlie Crystle?


[ Parent ]
Sestak visited FDL for a live chat last Sunday (4.00 / 3)
http://firedoglake.com/2009/05...

He's wrong on military, imo. Yes, he is all about ending DADT and that's fantastic, but what good is that when it's entirely wrong to be deployed at all? How can he truly be a defender of a fellow LBGT citizens liberty, yet say nothing about what we are asking our troops to endure in needless warfare and occupation?

He's only for a commission when it comes to recent war crimes such as torture... not a special prosecutor.

I think if we progressives are going to back a military man... he better damn well be all about ending needless conflict yesterday and prosecuting the worst war criminals to the fullest extent possible, or we are only making fools out of ourselves.

He's not at all planning on working for healthcare which includes everyone... or excludes big insurance. He is a fan of nationalizing the country in a Romney Massachusetts model.

He does sometime speak like a progressive, but he doesn't speak as a progressive. And I mean that in a heartfelt sense, not just whether or not he uses the word or describes himself that way.

Arlen really must go, but I wouldn't be an eager volunteer in a Sestak campaign.


A Right Thought! (0.00 / 1)
You Are thinking very right dear buddy.
I love your thoughts about  Democratic primary against Colorado Sen.Good Luck!

Here's a thought as to why we need a REAL liberal to beat Specter (0.00 / 0)
Arlen Specter is 79, aging and has had serious problems with cancer.  Joe Sestak is 57 and by all appearances healthy.  If Sestak runs and wins, he could be in there for several terms.  If he's not a real liberal/progressive then we'll be stuck with him for however long, unless we dislodge him in the next primary, which as we all know is frustratingly hard to do.

If, on the other hand, Specter wins reelection, he may very well retire in 2016 (though, I thought back in 2004 that he'd retire in 2010).  He may not even survive to 2016 - and I say that with no malice.  He would vacate his Senate seat much more quickly than Sestak would, at which point we'd have an open seat race where it'd be easier to run a real liberal.

(Correct me if I'm wrong, but if Specter were to die the governor would appoint a replacement, but that replacement would have to face a special election soon afterwards, as happened in 1991, when we elected a REAL liberal Democrat.)

So what I'm saying is, if we don't get a real liberal to run against Specter this time (and Sestak's kinda a mixed bag/question mark on that count), it might be better for the progressive cause in the long run if we allow Specter a victory in 2010, and hold out for a real liberal to run sometime soon down the road, than to have to deal with Sestak for the next thirty years.

Of course, I would much rather us run a real liberal champion who could take out Specter now and be a real progressive advocate for that next thirty years.

Who would be our real liberal?  I nominate Joe Hoeffel.  I read a piece by him (http://www.pa2010.com/2009/04/how-us-democrats-can-keep-on-winning/) and it's absolutely everything I want to hear from a Democratic senator.  I have to say I'd be much more comfortable with him as our nominee than Joe Sestak.  Yes, he'd need money, but surely the progressive community could unite behind him and keep those donations going.  And he'd stand a much better chance of winning than last time, since he'd be running against Specter in a Democratic primary, and then would easily crush Toomey in the general.  Someone needs to start a draft movement!


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