Here is a simple answer to a simple question: of course Dick Cheney staying in the spotlight is a big negative for Republicans. Polling over the last month on Cheney shows that he is viewed two to three times as unfavorably as he is viewed favorably. It is never a benefit for a political party that your most visible, or even one of your most visible, spokespeople is viewed unfavorably by two to three times as many people as s/he is viewed favorably.
However, here is a more difficult question: if not Cheney, then who should be a leading figure for Republicans? It turns out that most visible Republicans have negative favorable ratings. There are however, some exceptions. In the extended entry, here is a list of the favorable / unfavorable ratings of national Republican figures looking at polling from the previous twelve months.
Republican Favorable Ratings
Republican
Net Favorable
# Polls
Laura Bush
+54%
3
Condoleezza Rice
+29%
1
John McCain*
+18%
4
Cindy McCain
+17%
6
Tim Pawlenty
+5%
1
Rudy Guiliani
+4%
2
Sarah Palin*
+2%
5
Mike Huckabee**
+1%
4
Bobby Jindal
+1%
2
Mitt Romney**
-11%
3
Mitch McConnell
-16%
2
Rush Limbaugh
-18%
4
Karl Rove***
-19%
2
John Boehner
-21%
2
Newt Gingrich***
-23%
2
Dick Cheney
-27%
5
George W. Bush*
-29%
6
* = Post-2008 election
** = Polling from January-February 2008
*** = Polling from early 2007
Cheney, Gingrich, Limbaugh, Romney and Rove are terrible spokespeople for Republicans. The GOP would do well to hide them all as much as possible.
Boehner and McConnell don't poll any better than the five listed above. However, that would almost certainly be the case for anyone who took over the Republican Congressional leadership right now. Just being a Republican congressional leader is enough to push down your poll numbers, almost no matter who you are.
Condoleezza Rice is obviously who Republicans should make their leading media figure on all matters foreign policy and national defense. No one else with perceived expertise in these areas remotely compares to her poll numbers
McCain / Palin really was just about the best ticket Republicans could have put forward in 2008. McCain / Pawlenty would probably have been about the same, while McCain-Rice would obviously have been superior. However, Rice made it clear on numerous occasions that she was not interested.
Republican women in general poll noticeably better than Republican men.
Unless either Rice runs, or a lesser known candidate emerges, in 2012 the only viable presidential candidates on this list are Pawlenty, Palin and Huckabee. Mitt Romney will never be President, as his favorable rating is consistently in negative territory. Bobby Jindal isn't running, and Giuliani is clearly an utterly inadequate campaigner.
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