A new Connecticut poll this morning from Quinnipiac shows incumbent Democratic Senator Chris Dodd improving his position for re-election quite a bit. Dodd's prospects are still very much uphill, but they are an improvement none the less:
Quinnipiac, May 20-25, 1,575 RVs, MoE 2.5 (March numbers in parenthesis)
Simmons: 45% (50%)
Dodd: 39% (34%)
Dodd: 41% (37%)
Caligiuri: 39% (41%)
While these numbers are still very much uphill for Dodd (it is never good for an incumbent to be around 40%), there are come factors working in his favor:
- Rob Simmons has $20 in the bank. That isn't $20K or $20M, but $20.00. Simmons failed to raise money during what should have been a great time to build a warchest.
- The economy will be better in 2010 than in 2009. By this time next year, the economy will likely be growing again, jobs will probably be returning, and health care reform will have been passed.
Two of the most important advantages held by challengers are absent in Connecticut. Simmons is not raising the money to define himself (53% of voters don't know who he is), and by next year Democrats should be taking credit for an economic recovery largely based upon the stimulus package and other recent policies. As Senate banking chair, Dodd will be able to take credit for many of those policies, himself.
Overall, reports of Senator Dodd's demise appear to be premature. In fact, rather than the general election, he might actually face more trouble in the primary from businessman Merrick Alpert, who right now only trails Dodd 44%--24% among registered Democrats. Alpert can self-finance, and is a veteran opposed to the American military presence in Afghanistan. With nearly two-thirds of Democrats now sharing that position, Alpert might have a real shot. A 20% advantage in a primary one year out is not much of an advantage at all.
Now, the Connecticut blogosphere isn't very impressed with Merrick Alpert. My Left Nutmeg has been particularly harsh for Alpert's apparent willingness to use right-wing media and talking points. Also, despite the favorable poll numbers for Alpert, CT Blue makes a good point about the difficulty of ballot access for Democratic primaries in Connecticut. In a nice bit of original reporting, Connecticut Bob has an interview with Merrick.
The situation in Connecticut is clearly fluid. Just as Dodd'd general election prospects improve, the real possibility of losing in the primary emerges. This far out, it is difficult to make an assessment with any accuracy, but no matter what the future holds for Connecticut, it now appears to be the most interesting Senate race in the nation (again).
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