Polling from Gallup shows that the public reaction to Sonia Sotomayor is more akin to the positive reaction it had to Chief Justice John Roberts, than to the middling reaction it had to Harriet Miers and Justice Samuel Alito:
Despite the conservative rants about Sotomayor being dumb and racist, only 13% of the country thinks she is a poor pick. Assuming for a moment that Americans would consider someone who is dumb and / or a racist a poor pick for Supreme Court, only 13% of Americans share that view.
These polls matter, too. Roberts, who received a favorable reaction from the public, ended up with only 22 votes against his confirmation. By contrast, Alito received 42 no votes (though only 25 on the cloture vote) following his mixed public reception. The polls were the key factor here, given that Samuel Alito and John Roberts faced the exact same Senate, and have voted closer to each other than any other two Justices on the Supreme Court. (Alito and Roberts were the closest pairing in 2006 and 2007, and tied for the closest pairing in 2008, although in conjunction with Scalia they make a set of triplets).
Then again, Democrats were the opposition back then, and the Democratic caucus as a whole will never take an oppositional stance on anything unless dozens of polls show 60% of the country on their side (and even then, their opposition is usually only temporary and skin-deep). Republicans, on the other hand, clearly don't give a rat's ass what polls say. So the question now is not whether or not Sotomayor will be confirmed, but whether or not Senate Republicans fall in line with Gingrich and Limbaugh and make a show of opposing her. Will they choose to dig themselves an even bigger electoral hole with Latinos, only 15% of whom don't want to see Sotomayor confirmed, and reinforce their image as opposing President Obama and congressional Democrats for the sake of opposition? Or, will they, for once, largely take a pass and pick their battles more carefully?
The word is that Senate Republicans do not intend to fight Sotomayor, realizing it gains them nothing but even more animosity from Latinos. However, congressional Republicans have shown a penchant for backtracking on orders from Leader Limbaugh this year, and Limbaugh is ordering them to go to the wall in opposition to Sotomayor. So, the jury might still be out on this one.
Personally, I hope they keep attacking, because it is working out very well for Democrats. |
