Two judicial polling posts in one this morning:
1. Sotomayor Cruising Toward Confirmation
Another poll came out today showing Sonia Sotomayoor cruising toward confirmation. The AP / GfK poll shows 50% of the country favoring Sotomayor's nomination, with only 22% opposed. This is the third poll asking a direct question on Sotomayor's nomination, all of which have put her in safe territory.
A comparative look at the first three confirmation polls on the four Supreme Court nominees since 2005 show just how safe Sotomayor really is:
First Three Polls, Last Four Supreme Court Nominees
Roberts: +27.3% (Confirm 51.0%--23.7%, AP, ABC and Newsweek)
Sotomayor +23.4% (Confirm 49.7%--26.3% Not Confirm, Rasmussen, AP and Gallup)
Alito: +11.4% (Confirm: 37.7%--26.3% Not Confirm, AP, Newsweek and Fox)
Miers: +8.0% (Confirm 36.7%--28.7% Not Confirm, Pew, Fox, AP)
Public opinion on confirming Sotomayor is far closer to Roberts territory than to Alito or Miers. Roberts sailed through the nomination process, and it is a solid bet that Sotoamyor will sail through as well.
Update: Rasmussen has just released a widely outlying poll on Sotomayor today, showing the public favoring he confirmation by only 41%--36%. Even if that was included in the average, replacing the orginal Rasmussen polls, Sotomayor is still at 47.7% confirm--28.3% Not Confirm, far ahead of Alito, and still closer to Roberts.
However, consider that Rasmussen also has consistently claimed that Republicans are winning the generic congressional ballot, a finding that has consistently been repudiiated by every other pollster on the subject. They also find a lot more Republicans in the country than any other polling firm. In 2009, they are consistently skewing Republican.
2. "Strict Constructionists" Not in the Majority
In looking through old supreme court polling to compile this post, I came along this interesting nugget:
ABC News/Washington Post Poll. July 21, 2005. N=500 adults nationwide. MoE ± 4.5. Fieldwork by TNS.
"Do you think the U.S. Supreme Court should base its rulings on its understanding of what the U.S. Constitution meant as it was originally written, or should the court base its rulings on its understanding of what the U.S. Constitution means in current times?"
Cuurent Meaning: 50%
Originally Written: 46%.
Unsurer: 4%
In the same vein, a Quinnpiac poll from July 2008 showed a 52%-40% majority in favor of "current realities" over "original intentions," while a Fox poll from August 2005 showed a 47%--36% plurality for "framer's intent" over "meaning in today's world." The questions were all phrased differently, but no majority ever appeared for what conservatives call the "strict constructionist" position. In fact, in two out of three polls, the "living document" argument was in the majority.
This is relevant because I can't remember a single politician ever arguing that we need judges who will interpret the Constitution in a way that is relevant to our own times, even though it appears to be the more common viewpoint among the American public. About all we ever hear from Republicans and Democrats alike is how we need strict interpretations of what the founders intended. I guess it isn't surprising that a piece of conservative rhetoric dominates our political discourse even though it is a minority position. This is hardly the only example of that happening.
|
