My friend Carole, a terrific Democrat who knows how to work a room, had the ear of a Major Insider at the Magic Johnson party for Hillary this past week (I'm still listening to everyone and leaning Obama). She was pushing for DC attention to the CA-45th, as she often does, because we have two Democratic candidates (so far) to challenge Mary Bono, and our Dem candidate will need some real support. Mr. Major Insider thought our GOP/Dem breakdown was 80/20ish, a common misconception, and one which drives Carole right up the wall. Our actual numbers are:
Dem (35.85%) * Rep (45.53%) * Other (18.62%)
Not only that, the CA-45th has a high growth rate with newcomers trending Democratic, a weak Bushbot incumbent, a bargain media market (for California), and last year's race was the first potentially competitive one in thirty years. But the DCCC gave Roth no tangible support. So why no love from Washington? Follow me past the flip for the many reasons why the Democratic Party needs to start playing to win in the CA-45th.
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The CA-45th is an ideal prototype for the Democratic Party to show how we can turn more red districts blue. It's time to take advantage of the national mood, our local demographic shift, and a laughably weak incumbent. Once the playground of Presidents flips to the Democrats, just imagine the impact nationally. It's closer than you think.
The CA-45th got serious attention last election cycle, just not from the DCCC. 21st Century Democrats endorsed David Roth and sent a fantastic staffer to work the district. Barbara Boxer's PAC for a Change and the Blue America PAC endorsed Roth. The Calitics team frontpaged several Roth diaries. George Miller, Barney Frank, Maxine Waters, and Loretta Sanchez stumped for Roth.
Roth raised over 700K, which was a universe apart from previous efforts. He forced Mary Bono to raise twice as much. Despite a virtual blackout from the GOP-owned local papers, he drew unprecedented crowds for a Democrat in the area, and heard from countless Republicans who craved a change. But Mary Bono had the money she needed for a media blitz during the last two weeks of the campaign. Roth got nothing from the DCCC but a late designation as an Emerging Race, and Cheesecake Factory cake on election night. He had no media presence to speak of, despite the most dynamic campaign by a Democrat in this district in thirty years. This simply can't happen again, because the district is ripe to flip. NB: Barbara Boxer, recent addition to Rancho Mirage, received 49% in the CA-45th in 2004.
In DC, "everyone knows" that the CA-45th is a bastion of conservatism, with a presumed 80/20 advantage for the GOP. The actual registration as of October 23, 2006 is:
Dem - 115,874 (35.85%)
Rep - 147,158 (45.53%)
Other - 60,214 (18.62%)
2.5% of the Other are registered American Independent/Green, so subtract that, you still have 16.12% unaffiliated voters. The total of Democrats plus unaffiliated- (51.97%).
That was last year, but what of the future? The Press Enterprise says that Republicans are losing their grip on the Inland Empire. According to the study last July by UC-Riverside researcher Karthick Ramakrishnan, Department of Political Science:
"The results from our survey reveal a roughly equal proportion of eligible voters who identify with the Democrat(ic) and Republican party.. ……
….Naturalized citizens, who have the least experience with the U.S. political system, are least likely to identify with either of the major political parties. By contrast, second-generation immigrants (those born in the U.S. to immigrant parents) are more likely than the rest of the population to identify as Democrats.
Finally, there are clear differences in party identification between newcomers and long-term residents in the Inland Empire. Newer residents are less likely than long-term residents to identify as Republicans (27% vs. 37%), and more likely to identify as Democrat or Independent. Even taking into account those independents who lean towards either party, there is a noticeable difference between recent residents who favor Democrats and more established residents who split nearly evenly between the two parties."
It would be sheer negligence to allow this district to remain Republican. Current conventional wisdom on the CA-45th also overlooks the politically active gay population in Palm Springs, and the increasingly powerful generation of progressive leaders taking over in the East Coachella Valley. Eduardo Garcia's successful mayoral race in Coachella registered 15,000 new voters, and he is widely regarded as a rising star in local politics, as is Manuel Pérez, candidate for the California 80th Assembly District. The political energy here is blue.
Mary Bono has a solid Bushbot record, no capacity to face a serious challenger in a debate, and her sympathetic image as the widow of Sonny Bono is now one divorce and one engagement past its shelf date. With a serious voter education effort (and there's a lot of bang for the buck in this media market), Bono's support among Republican environmentalists and moderates is vulnerable, and the potential support from middle and working class residents for a Democratic challenger is huge.
The Democratic votes are here if we are willing to go get them. And let's not forget that even though the California Republican Party is in disarray, the 2008 presidential race is in jeopardy if the GOP dirty tricks/electoral votes grab initiative gets on the California ballot. The Democratic Party needs to play to win in the CA-45th. There is simply no excuse not to.
P.S. As soon as I know more about our Democratic challengers, I'll post it. One is not ready to surface, and the other is still processing his FEC paperwork. But hallelujah, they exist at last!
X-posted from Calitics |
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