Democrats are still quite popular in the Northeast and unpopular in the South, but they've lost significant ground in the West and Midwest since late February, four months ago, even though Republicans, who are far less popular, continue losing popularity as well. If the GOP's intention is to disgust people with politics, in direct opposition with Obama's attempt to bring sweetness and light, the GOP seems to be succeeding--and Democrats in general are paying the price, both in party popularity, and in the popularity of congresional Democrats. The figures derived from the latest week of DKos polling are below, figures for late February, and the differences between then and now will be found on the flip.
Congressional Dems are up by 20 in the Northeast, and down by almost double that in the South, while dead even in the West, and just above even in the Midwest. In late February, they were up by 10 in the Midwest, 12 in the West, and up almost as much in the Northeast (22%) as they were down in the South (29%). Their total non-South edge has eroded from 14 points to 8.
Figures for party popularity, while more favorable, show a similar pattern of erosion. While the GOP remains vastly more unpopular, these trends should be worrying to Democratic Party leaders, while reinforcing the view of critical supporters that the party is risking its newly-won position of dominance by failing to deliver, both in terms of legislation and message.
Democratic favorability in the Midwest and West has been cut roughly in half, from 28% and 31% respectively to 15% and 11%. Democratic favorability in the Northeast has held almost steady, losing just 3 points, from 50% to 47%, while favorability in the South has plummeted, from -10 to -38.
As seen above, the picture in late February was one of total dominance outside the South, and near-parity within the South. That pattern no longer exists. Near parity in the South has vanished (a 4 point congressional favorability deficit is now 12, a 10-point party favorability deficit is now 35). While Democratic dominance remains in the West and Midwest, it's no longer roughly evenly divided between liking for the Democratic Party and loathing for the GOP. Instead, both congressional and party favorability are heavily dominated by loathing for the GOP in both regions. Only Democratic dominance in the Northeast remains unshaken, with virtually no change.
As can be seen most clearly in the figures above, both parties have lost ground in the West in Midwest, with the GOP losing more in the Midwest, and Democrats losing more in the West, both in congressional and party favorability. In congressional favorability the figures are exact mirror images--the Dems lost 6% in the Midwest and 12% in the West, the GOP lost 12% in the Midwest and 6% in the West. Both lost a total of 7 points in the non-South as a whole. In terms of party favorability, the GOP lost more in the Midwest (a 9-point net) than the Dems lost in the West (a 4-point net), while also losing 10 points net in the Northeast, for a total non-South loss of 17 points compared to the Democrats 12.
If the Democrats were actually in political control--controlling the policy agenda and the message environment--these shifts would mean relatively little, given how deep a hole the GOP is in. But the Democrats really need to accomplish something substantial, having only commanded a Democratic trifecta for 2 years since 1980, and given this need for substantial accomplishment, this erosion of party favorability ratings shows that task growing harder, not easier, in addition to the fact that it always grows harder to get things done as the first year wind down, and the mid-term election year begins.
Conclusion: It's not just all in our heads hear at Open Left when we warn that the Democrats are not getting the job done. That's how the public is starting to see things, too.
