NY-Sen, PA-Sen: Maloney, Sestak Lining Up Primary Challenges

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Jul 01, 2009 at 13:01


Defying the wishes of the national Democratic Party leadership, today comes news that both Representative Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) and Representative Joe Sestak (D-PA) will mount primary challenges to Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and Senator Arlen Specter, respectively. Good for both Sestak and Maloney. If the leadership can't control their own Senate caucus enough to pass progressive legislation, then they shouldn't be able to prevent progressive primary challenges, either.

Although neither Sestak nor Maloney are making their official campaign launches at this time, in the extended entry I discuss polling, voting records, and other important information that will help you make sense of these campaigns.

Chris Bowers :: NY-Sen, PA-Sen: Maloney, Sestak Lining Up Primary Challenges

Voting records
DW-Nominate places both primary challengers to the left of the incumbent Senators. Here are the most recent comparisons, from 2007-2008 (-1.000 is the most liberal possible, and 1.000 is the most conservative possible, although no one really ever scores beyond 0.750 in either direction):

Gillibrand 0.233 vs. Maloney 0.442 (Difference: 0.209)
Specter 0.091 vs. Sestak -0.287 (Difference: 0.378)

So, Maloney has a more progressive record (she is actually a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, though she did vote for the Iraq war), but the gap between Specter and Sestak is much greater.

Polling
In New York, Gillibrand and Maloney are already tied:

Quinnipiac (6/21): Maloney 27%, Gillibrand 23%, Tasini 4%
Schoen (5/31): Maloney 34%, Gillibrand 32%
Marist (4/29): Gillibrand 36%, Maloney 31%

Normally, is would be extremely bad news for an incumbent. However, Gillibrand and Maloney have equal name identification, so this really is a dead heat. One advantage Maloney (who represents parts of Manhattan and Queens) might have is that 60% of the 2008 New York primary electorate came from New York City (50%) and Long Island (10%), theoretically providing her with a larger geographic base than Gillibrand (who is from the Albany and Hudson Valley region). Then again, Long Island votes more like Upstate than like New York City, meaning there is no advantage in either direction.

In Pennsylvania, Specter currently holds a roughly 20% lead on Sestak. The Pollster.com trendline shows Specter ahead 40.6%--23.7%, and the four most recent polls show an average of Specter 47.8%--25.0% Sestak. However, as I discussed in more detail last week, Sestak is already ahead among Democrats who know both candidates. Further, Sestak's strongest demographic groups are actually the less Democratic, less-liberal sections of the party, meaning that Specter is in the awkward position of having to hold down a liberal base while being challenges from the left.

Money (as of March 31st)
Specter: $6,735,915
Sestak: $3,343,701
Gillibrand: $2,202,825
Maloney: $1,339,081

Primaries
Both primaries are "closed," in that only registered Democrats can vote.

The Pennsylvania primary takes place on May 18th, 2010
The New York primary takes place in early September, 2010


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Tasini (4.00 / 1)
MyDD ignored Tasini when he ran against Hillary Clinton in '06.  It appears the tradition continues, despite his being far more progressive than either Gillibrand or Maloney.  I thought you believed in supporting progressives in primaries.

It's distressing (4.00 / 1)
I just gave Tasini money and I urge others to do the same.

https://secure.actblue.com/ent...

I want true-blue progressives in the Senate. These past few months should've taught us the problem with moderates and corporate "progressives" like Maloney. Now, make no mistake, she's much better than Gillibrand but as Chris says, she voted for the war. Like Hillary, she refused to apologize for it. She's also voted for many free trade deals, including the Peru FTA, which is already causing such problems.

When she cast her vote in the House in October 2002 giving the president authority to use military force to make Iraq give up its weapons, she said she believed the administration's assertions that Iraqi leader Saddam
Hussein posed an imminent threat.

Still raw from the loss of 500 of her constituents in the Sept. 11, 2001
attacks on the World Trade Center, she attended intelligence briefings on
Iraq's stockpile of chemical and biological weapons. Officials detailed
scenarios in which thousands of New Yorkers were killed after terrorists
dropped chemical agents on the city. It turned her stomach, she said.

"All I had was the information before me," Maloney said. "I voted for what
I thought would protect the people I represent. You make a judgment of
what you believe is right."

Maloney stopped short of apologizing for her vote and said the United
States now has a responsibility to rebuild the country.

http://carolynmaloney.com/news...


[ Parent ]
Tasini isn't a serious candidate (4.00 / 3)
and by that I mean that he didn't actually run the sort of campaign needed to have a chance to defeat Clinton. He is running in order to talk about the issues which is fine but for on-the-ground activists that are willing to work their tails off to get a candidate elected that means that he disqualifies himself from consideration.

There is no reason to contribute to or work your tail off for a candidate that isn't working their tail off for themselves.

If he does differently this time around then I'll withdraw the comment and say that he needs to be considered a serious candidate but until he takes himself seriously I don't see any reason why anyone else should.

Peace,

Andrew


[ Parent ]
Fully agree (4.00 / 2)
There are candidates and then there are serious candidates.

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[ Parent ]
Tasini took 18% of the Primary vote from the "Goddess of Peace" (4.00 / 1)
He took 18% of the vote from a personality cult leader.  Do you really think he wasn't "working"?

[ Parent ]
Come on! (4.00 / 1)
"Personality cult leader"? Must we relive the primary wars? I know a number of folks here have issues with Hillary Clinton (just as I did, even when I voted for her early last year). But come on, we need not resort to bashing her supporters as "cultists".

Yes, Virginia, there are progressives in Nevada.

[ Parent ]
Yes (0.00 / 0)
I guarentee it. He had absolutely no organizational presence in my 10 county congressional district. None.

[ Parent ]
Any chance of a third entrant in either of these primaries? (0.00 / 0)
Is the field definitely clear to the left of Specter and Gillibrand?  Are there potential candidates with their fingers in the air who might hop in if the incumbent look wounded by the challenger has run into problems?  At what point in time does the money race make that almost impossible?

Things You Don't Talk About in Polite Company: Religion, Politics, the Occasional Intersection of Both

Doubtful that anyone else (serious) will jump in (0.00 / 0)
Specter and Gillibrand are well-funded incumbents backed by the establishment, including President Obama.  Hence, the primary fields in both elections have been as dry as a desert.  But in order for these primary challenges to be successful we need to make sure there's only one liberal candidate, otherwise we'll split the liberal vote.

Bill Kortz is running against Specter, but he's been practically invisible and there's no indication his challenge is serious.  Only Sestak has the will and the resources needed to dethrone Specter.  The one potential challenger who's truly liberal and even remotely viable, Joe Hoeffel, has already endorsed Sestak.

As for New York, the Schumer/Reid/Obama/Emanuel complex have already scared off everyone other than Maloney.  I don't see any reasons for us to complain about Maloney though; she seems to be a very liberal Representative aside from her vote for the Iraq war resolution (which other liberals voted for too).  For that matter Gillibrand's been pretty good on the issues as well, at least so far.


[ Parent ]
OT - test (4.00 / 1)
This is only a test. I can't seem to post comments on Quick Hit entries, am trying to see if it works here.  

OK, well that's weird (0.00 / 0)
Can get my comments to post here, but not on Quick Hits.

[ Parent ]
DW-Nominate scores (4.00 / 2)
are still kind of a mystery to me, seeing how non-transparent they are, but they do go beyond 1.000 (and may not even be finite, since they seem to measure how much a person's record differs from all other members of their body in that particular session); Ron Paul, whose voting record is very much unlike that of anyone else's, is somewhere around a 1.400.

My other thought is that Gillibrand's DW-Nominate score for her House tenure isn't as useful a metric as her current Senate record, since, as Maloney points out, Gillibrand has "evolved." Unfortunately, there's no DW-Nom scores this early in the session, but Progressive Punch scores have been calculated, and Gillibrand is at 97.81 for the 111th Congress, which slots her in at #16. The four Senators closest to her on PP are Whitehouse (98.70), Harkin (98.12), Levin (97.52), and Leahy (97.48), so by treating these guys as a cohort and averaging out their DW-Nom scores from the 110th (- 0.531, - 0.569, - 0.499, and - 0.490, respectively), Gillibrand seems to be operating around - 0.522 this session. (Although I should add "for now" to that last sentence, as she's on her best behavior right now.)


I wouldn't call DW-NOMINATE non-transparent (0.00 / 0)
Although reading an explanation of it, I would say that it is much too complex to be understood by the average poster here.

One possible explanation for someone like Gillibrand changing in DW-NOMINATE score upon moving to the Senate is that members of the House feel much more electoral pressure to bring their votes in line with the views of their district since they are up for election every two years, but Senators feel less pressure due to longer terms, so they are more likely to vote their conscience.  Some Senators will move leftward as a result and some might move rightward.

Things You Don't Talk About in Polite Company: Religion, Politics, the Occasional Intersection of Both


[ Parent ]
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