Defying the wishes of the national Democratic Party leadership, today comes news that both Representative Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) and Representative Joe Sestak (D-PA) will mount primary challenges to Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and Senator Arlen Specter, respectively. Good for both Sestak and Maloney. If the leadership can't control their own Senate caucus enough to pass progressive legislation, then they shouldn't be able to prevent progressive primary challenges, either.
Although neither Sestak nor Maloney are making their official campaign launches at this time, in the extended entry I discuss polling, voting records, and other important information that will help you make sense of these campaigns. |
Voting records
DW-Nominate places both primary challengers to the left of the incumbent Senators. Here are the most recent comparisons, from 2007-2008 (-1.000 is the most liberal possible, and 1.000 is the most conservative possible, although no one really ever scores beyond 0.750 in either direction):
Gillibrand 0.233 vs. Maloney 0.442 (Difference: 0.209)
Specter 0.091 vs. Sestak -0.287 (Difference: 0.378)
So, Maloney has a more progressive record (she is actually a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, though she did vote for the Iraq war), but the gap between Specter and Sestak is much greater.
Polling
In New York, Gillibrand and Maloney are already tied:
Quinnipiac (6/21): Maloney 27%, Gillibrand 23%, Tasini 4%
Schoen (5/31): Maloney 34%, Gillibrand 32%
Marist (4/29): Gillibrand 36%, Maloney 31%
Normally, is would be extremely bad news for an incumbent. However, Gillibrand and Maloney have equal name identification, so this really is a dead heat. One advantage Maloney (who represents parts of Manhattan and Queens) might have is that 60% of the 2008 New York primary electorate came from New York City (50%) and Long Island (10%), theoretically providing her with a larger geographic base than Gillibrand (who is from the Albany and Hudson Valley region). Then again, Long Island votes more like Upstate than like New York City, meaning there is no advantage in either direction.
In Pennsylvania, Specter currently holds a roughly 20% lead on Sestak. The Pollster.com trendline shows Specter ahead 40.6%--23.7%, and the four most recent polls show an average of Specter 47.8%--25.0% Sestak. However, as I discussed in more detail last week, Sestak is already ahead among Democrats who know both candidates. Further, Sestak's strongest demographic groups are actually the less Democratic, less-liberal sections of the party, meaning that Specter is in the awkward position of having to hold down a liberal base while being challenges from the left.
Money (as of March 31st)
Specter: $6,735,915
Sestak: $3,343,701
Gillibrand: $2,202,825
Maloney: $1,339,081
Primaries
Both primaries are "closed," in that only registered Democrats can vote.
The Pennsylvania primary takes place on May 18th, 2010
The New York primary takes place in early September, 2010 |