A Palin Theory

by: tremayne

Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 23:50


Lots of speculation tonight over the "real" reason for Sarah Palin's abrupt resignation as Governor of Alaska. An Alaska-based blogger for HuffPo is talking about the possibility of criminal charges relating to how her Wasilla home was paid for/built. (Hey, that's just Alaska political tradition, nothing to see here).

But why would she quit over that possibility? Would it be easier to defend yourself on those charges as the sitting Governor or as an ex-Governor? I think the former.

My own take is that Sarah Palin quit to pursue what really matters to her now: money and fame. The politics thing was becoming a drag what with ethics investigations and questions - all those pesky questions! Somewhere inside it had to hurt looking like a fool on national television with Katie Couric blinking at you expectantly for an answer you had no idea how to give or even dodge gracefully. I don't think she wants to do that again or do the work involved to better prepare. 

Here's a telling quote from a story in the Alaska Daily News:

Anchorage Rep. Hawker noted that Palin's decision to quit "gives her unfettered ability to pursue her economic interests, whether it be a book deal or speeches, that type of thing, without being cluttered by state ethics law."

I think that's about right. She may even have lucrative offers before her now. I think the kind of easy money she could make right now is just too appealing for her. Last fall, instead of focusing all her energy on campaigning or preparing for interviews/debates, she spent considerable amounts of time shopping. $150,000 worth. Clothes for the family too. It was her time to cash in - after several years of work as mayor of Wasilla and 2 years as Governor, she was getting paid!  

Here's another piece from the ADN story:

Larry Persily, a former aide to Palin in her Washington, D.C., office, said he thinks she is shedding all that is bad about her job as governor -- from the ethics complaints to her bruising fights with the Legislature -- "and she can just be a national star in front of adoring crowds." "It's like the kid who leaves college early for the NBA draft and says, this is when I am at my height in the market and I'm going for it," said Persily, a former Anchorage Daily News opinion editor who is now an aide to Rep. Hawker.

Again, this sounds right to me. Instead of her basketball metaphor - a point guard facing a full-court (and hostile) press who passes the ball to their Lt. Governor teammate - Palin is dropping out of college after 2 years so she can get paid. Losing a Republican primary in 2012 would leave her past her earning peak (anyone heard from Dan Quayle since his aborted Presidential run?).

So, where does that leave Republicans? Let's see. Bobby Jindahl bombed in his non-State of the Union response. Besides, he's 10 years younger than President Obama. He won't run in 2012. Utah Governor Huntsman is off to China. Florida Governor Charlie Crist is running for Senate in 2010. If he wins he would take office in January 2011 which is also when he would need to announce plans for a Presidential run. He's not running. Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is still named "Bush." South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford is..... oh, you get the point. Pretty much it's Mittens' nomination if he wants it. 

 

 

tremayne :: A Palin Theory

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A Palin Theory | 23 comments
I think it really could be Jeb Bush (0.00 / 0)
I think he'd beat Romney.  Amazing situation, though I'm not sure he'd run.

Surely someone else will emerge... I don't know who the possibilities are. Current Governors may all be in a bad situation to run. So maybe it really will be Romney.  I hope for a big field so that the nominee had been dragged way to the right.


New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.


Her Political Career Is Like Her College Career (4.00 / 3)
She just got luckier in politics.  But both were directionless exercises is self-amusement for which she was ill-prepared and lacking in serious purpose.

Politics gave her more power to indulge her petty vindictiveness, though.  And that may very well be why she's stepping down.  She can be petty and vindictive 24/7, and live totally in a bubble where everyone loves her for it.  The big bucks are almost an afterthought for someone like her.  But not the clothes.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


But why so sudden? (4.00 / 3)

 Her rambling, unfocused speech, which sounded like she might have been on meth, didn't suggest that this was a deliberate, thought-through decision.

 That's why I'm hoping that there IS a big criminal investigation coming up.

 But then again, Holder doesn't prosecute Republicans.

 So it's a mystery to me. If this were about cashing in, she would have had a cover story ready.

 

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn


a deal (4.00 / 1)
would authorities ever make a deal like this: resign your office and we'll end the investigation?

[ Parent ]
Alaskan authorities might.... n/t (4.00 / 1)


REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


[ Parent ]
Chip Pickering, Trent Lott, Scott McInnis, Tom DeLay, (4.00 / 1)
I don't have the faintest scrap of real information, but I've assumed that's how it works for quite a while.  There are just too many resignations with the strong scent of scandal about them for the resignation itself to not be a move in the game.

[ Parent ]
BINGO I've been to 30 or 40 Alaska villages, it ain't Greenwich (4.00 / 2)
Village out there in the boonies. I was Anchorage 15 years ago, only for a few days - Indianapolis in stunning beaty?

As someone who has lived in Boston or Seattle for 29 of 30 years - I worked on 8 or 10 different boat jobs from Ketchican to Nome for about 1.5 years - the ONLY way you can live in Alaska is:

1. you ACTUALLY like the grizzly adams thing,
2. you're drunk a lot,
3. the money.

Ms. Nothing From NoWhere Of NoWhere got a taste of the BIG SHOW, and, realized that while she was 1 of the biggest fish in what seemed to be an enormous pond, compared to the lower 48, her pond is freaking empty.

dropping a 150 grand on baubles is FUN!

She's done with doing fudgy deals to get free drywall for a palace out in the middle of f'ing nowhere. she wants the REAL money, cuz she knows she can ALWAYS move back to the middle of nowhere and shoot moose off of the front porch.

rmm.  


It is too full o' the milk of human kindness To catch the nearest way


Forget Mittens (4.00 / 1)
There's still plenty of Republicans who can beat him - the guy just has no national appeal. Even if it came down the Pawlenty and Romney, I'd but on the mullet.

And I'm not convinced Sarah isn't running, either...


maybe (4.00 / 2)
but the only way she could run now and have any chance is to make it look, a la Ross Perot, that she was drafted by the people. "I didn't have plans to run for any office again but couldn't so no to this groundswell of support. Also."

I agree that Romney seems unlikely in some ways. If the 2008 field wasn't weak enough for them to consider the self-funding and well-coiffed Romney how could he ever win. Here's how: the 2012 keeps looking weaker and weaker and will probably be worse than the 2008 field. Plus, by the time the economy became the dominant election story Romney was already out of the race. With his business/finance background his best chance is for a weak economy in 2012.

I suppose Pawlenty has a chance but give it a few days and something or someone will surface to sink him....


[ Parent ]
I can't remember who said this.... (0.00 / 0)
...but the politico basically said that a traditional candidate will not be able to beat Obama.... it has to be someone unique, like Gingrich... An average Joe canddate like Romney just isn't enough to take out an incumbent...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


[ Parent ]
that's the thinking (4.00 / 1)
that led John McCain to pick Sarah Palin. I'm not convinced.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

[ Parent ]
Three others (0.00 / 0)
Unlike the Democrats, Republicans like big state governors (George W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, Thomas E. Dewey), generals (Dwight Eisenhower), or former/current Vice Presidents (George H.W. Bush, Richard Nixon).  Small state governors don't make it.

If we arbitrarily cut off any possible 2010 winners (too soon to go instantly campaigning) the field is pretty limited.  Arnold is not eligible under the US Constitution.  NY, PA, MI, VA, NC, NJ, OH, MI, and IL all have Democratic governors.  That leaves Sonny Perdue and Rick Perry.  Maybe Chris Christie if he wins and goes on a diet a la Huckabee.  Or David Petraeus.  

Petraeus has alreasdy worked with Republican operatives.  He can use traditional Republican narreatives against Obama but, here's the problem, the economy would seem to be the key issue.

As for Perry, he's Governor of the largest Republican state, served in the Air Force, and is beloved by conservatives.  Texas is not in as bad shape as much of the rest of the country.  His negatives: he won re-election the last time in a multi-candidate scramble with 40% of the vote and faces a stiff race against US Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison.  That and he really has not done much.

Perdue actually hired a preacher to pray for rain during a drought.  Georgis currently has 9.6 million people placing it on the edge of largeness.  Yes, he's bald but ...


[ Parent ]
Get ready for an ECONOMIC SURGE!!!!!1!1! (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
I'd say that's as good a theory as any other (4.00 / 2)
She's finally moving off to be what she always wanted to be: a celebrity spokesmodel.

is sarah really resigning (4.00 / 1)
you betcha!

Jealous of Rod Blagojevich maybe? (4.00 / 2)
Can now appear on I'm a celebrity, get me outta here?

Jeff Wegerson

Don't forget Mike Huckabee (4.00 / 1)
And of course Tim Pawlenty.

I think that Norm Coleman would have run too, if he hadn't lost his reelection race.


Huckabee vs. Romney = (4.00 / 1)
great fun for me!

[ Parent ]
She probably wants to spend more time with her Argentinian lover! (4.00 / 2)
Well, this is the most probable explanation. Governor abruptly abandons the job, without even the staff knowing what is going on? Come on, we know now what is behind this!
:D

Money and Fame (Neither Deserved) (0.00 / 0)
You betcha!

"Against stupidity even the angels fight in vain" --Schiller
"Respect for the rights of others is peace" -- Juarez


I suspect that she had that contractor (0.00 / 0)
build a life-size replica of the Oval Office in her basement, and she wants to spend more time in it with her "cabinet".

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton

Boring but probably true (0.00 / 0)
It's the house.

Stevens had some plausible cover. He had been in office for decades, had brought billions in federal dollars and ultimately probably materially benefited everyone in the state and more specifically every operator of any commercial  business in the State. What would be more natural than having a political associate and beneficiary and personal friend do you some favors. Particularly when you spent much of your time in DC far, far away from any invoices. Yet if the prosecution hadn't screwed the pooch concealing evidence Uncle Ted might have spent some time in the slammer.

Palin doesn't have that cover. She was a small town mayor overseeing her pet project of a $13 million hockey rink/community center that happens to be made of the same materials and with some of the same design elements as the concurrently built house on the lake supposedly built by her husband and "some buddies". There is a difference between influence peddling which results in a custom statue, a gas grill and some renovation on your 'cabin' and a straightforward diversion of construction material and labor from an ongoing municipal building project to your personal future home.

Now the Palins were reasonably well-off, but that doesn't mean you wouldn't notice that nobody seemed to be billing you for the price of your lumber package. Maybe Todd and Sarah have a file of receipts showing that everything including labor was paid for by sources outside that of the municipal building project, but if there is any spillover whatsover Sarah is in a world of hurt. Because Wasilia isn't that big that the mayor and future homeowner would not see that something was up.

Sarah has five kids including a special needs infant and would rightfully be scared to death at being separated from them by a jail term. If those bloggers charges are remotely true she needs to hunker down and lawyer up.

Not as exciting as the prospect of The Sarah Show! Nightly on Fox! but it would go far to explain  the frenetic quality of her announcement.


Pa(l)in (0.00 / 0)
OMG/WTF! Give it a rest! How can one theorize, analyze and continue to just plain gossip about the soon-to-be ex governor of Alaska's reasons for resigning. I, for one, am thankful. That she has managed to claim media attention is understandable given her political and personal convulsions. But aside from her mangled rhetorical meanderings and pandering to the small tent ethos, Palin's viability as a candidate for anything should be considered null and void. She has proved that her ambition has blinded her intuition in what, hopefully, proves one of her last moves in the mainstream. Palin even used a metaphor about dead fish (!) in Friday's sayonara and that's exactly how I like to picture her intentions. Oh, I hope she does keep her eye (there's irony in her allusions to vision) on the (basket) ball. That is, in its downward spiral.  

A Palin Theory | 23 comments
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