Last weekend, in the discussion of my diary "The Recovery Myth", I wrote in a comment:
my point is that it's generally far easier to take over an existing party with a vibrant reform movement than it is to start a third party.
In response, Nancy Bordier replied by bringing up the political social networking tool she's developed, based on a brainstorm she had at a Howard Dean meetup back in the day.
I have been working on it for the past five years, during which it has evolved considerably into a mechanism that voters can use either to take over an existing party or start a new one.
She explained. Then adding:
The more I see Obama moving to consolidate his control over the Democratic Party using social networking techniques, the less I think a vibrant opposition reform movement can take over the Democratic Party with Obama at its helm.
My invention also uses social networking technology, but as I point out when I critique Obama's Pre-Election Web Strategy and Obama's Post-Election Web Strategy, I think it is best for voters to use social networking technologies independently of existing parties, candidates or incumbents.
While I understand her argument in the first paragraph--and sympathize--the evidence of history still weighs heavily against the third party option, except along the lines of the fusion option, exemplified currently by the Working Families Party in New York. It's her second paragraph where I'm in complete agreement, and I went on to say that I needed to study her invention and its proposed use more carefully before responding at any length. (You can read about it yourself at her website, Re-Inventing Democracy.)
I'm still not ready to do that, in part because I'm concerned about some broader issues her invention raises, particularly in tandem with a research paper written by one of the boggers at Lawyers, Guns and Money, Dave Brockington, described in his post, "More and Better Choice = More Voters! Go Figure!" I've got more questions than answers at this stage, as I'll discuss on the flip.... along with the reason I've titled this diary as I have. |
| Nancy's website is essentially an online book, titled "Re-Inventing Democracy", and subtitled "How U.S. Voters Can Get Control of Government and Restore Popular Sovereignty in America." As a lifelong grassroots activist, first inspired by the Civil Rights Movement, I am deeply sympathetic with the purpose presented here.
The failings of the top-down model of elite-run "democracy" have always been evident to me, but have only grown more strikingly apparent as the voters' rejection of the catastrophic policies of the GOP in 2006 and 2008 has resulted in only the most modest changes in direction. So my support for Nancy's basic intention is unreserved.
The problem, however, is that populists have habitually made the mistake of speaking of "the people" as if "the people" were all of one mind. Sometimes, this is very nearly true, when large popular majorities--60 to 80 percent--favor ideas that the elites of both parties reject out of hand. The sort of invention that Nancy has created could be invaluable to use in organizing in such situations. But if one thinks of using it for all things, and if one thinks of potentially building new parties with it, then one must consider a broader range of issues, where deep divisions among "the people" may exist, which raises a whole different array of concerns.
That's where Dave's paper comes in. He looks at electoral systems in almost 30 countries, using a consumer cost/benefit approach, and asking "What makes voting worth it to people?" as a way of studying factors affecting turnout:
Like how stores with greater selection will have more customers, electoral markets with greater selection will have more voters. Bonus if the better store also has cheaper prices. In electoral politics, cheaper prices can be arranged through simple things, like having election day on a weekend, extended polling hours (or at least shorter lines!), etc. It's also possible to have cheaper prices through something as mundane as accurate partisan cues, which is one reason why judicial elections in my home state of Washington often feature serious drop off on the ballot.
So in this thing, I argue that electoral 'stores' that feature a greater range of choice, and choices closer to the voters' own views, while controlling for the usual range of individual (such as SES, education or interest) and institutional (electoral system, compulsory voting, age of the democracy, etc.) explanations, are associated with higher levels of turnout.... In fact, it turns out that electoral context as measured through overall ideological coverage (e.g. more choice) and ideological proximity (e.g. better choice) are stronger, more substantive explanations than the usual suspects (e.g. age, education, or even electoral system).
Put more simply, more voters will get what they want (electorally, at least) if there are a broader ideological range of parties that more closely match their own preferences. This will be reflected in higher turnout.
Our two-party system is naturally a poor choice in this model for only offering two options--but it can be even poorer because those two options may not come close to voters' preferences. And, of course, the bigger a role played by special interests, the greater the disconnect between voter preferences and what the parties offer is likely to be.
Taking Dave's argument to its logical extreme, the greatest number of choices, covering the widest ideological range, and offering choices closest to each voter's views would lead us to a system with everyone voting for themselves, each representing a party of one. Obviously, there are costs involved in this that lie outside of Dave's model used in this paper. Most people (unlike Sarah Palin) are actually telling the truth when they say they've got something better to do with their lives than run for and hold high office.
Still, the tendency toward political fragmentation is something that needs to be taken seriously. If two parties are clearly too few, how many are too many? How should one know? One approach is factor analysis. Factor analysis takes people's views on a large number of issues, then looks for correlations between them, and seeks to find common factors. This is the approach used in Pew's political typology research, and in Sun Tzu's analysis of the MyDD poll. Pew found that there were nine distinct groups--three primarily Republican, three Democratic, and three independent. Presumably, voters would be much happier if there nine parties instead of two, they could vote for someone much close to representing their political preferences.
But would this actually work? Would a system with nine parties be able to enact effective policies? Or--more saliently for us--would a popular sovereignty tool that empowered nine different citizen coalitions actually empower the people? Or would it make it even easier for special interests to shape elite politics to play them off against each other?
There are other questions I could raise, as well as other indications about how political opinions might be grouped. But I want to try to keep this discussion relatively focused, so I'm going to end it here with a final thought, which will help explain the diary's title.
The issues raised here are yet another incarnation of the perennial tension between populist and progressive tendencies in American politics. The progressive tendency wants to move us forward--whatever that may mean (and the differences can be enormous)--while the populist tendency wants the people to be sovereign. Progressives tend to be technocratic, one way or another, and Nancy's invention is an example of how a progressive mentality applies itself to try to reach populist goals. I think this is very noble endeavor, and it's one that I myself am very interested in. But in order to realize it, we cannot paper over the fact that "the people" are not always united, and sometimes can be very divided, even fragmented. This is a very problem we need to face head on before we can hope to make real progress. This is not to disparage any of Nancy's hard work. But it is to raise questions about the best ways that her hard work might be carried forward in a way that will actually reach the goals she is aiming for--goals that I think are widely shared by the Open Left community. |