Health Care: We're not in 1993 Anymore

by: Daniel De Groot

Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 23:14

So this one asks people to rate their views on health care between 1 and 5, with 1 being "government should help" with the costs, and 5 being "people should help themselves" (YOYO).  

I went with a line graph because it's easier to see how the values change over time, but note that I excluded the data between 1994 and 2000 just to keep the chart readable (run it yourselves using "year" and "helpsick" as the variables if you don't trust me).  

What's interesting is that in 1993, the 1's and 2's were 53% and in 2008, they are 54%.  However in 2008, 35% are 1's versus 29% in 1993.  The overall support for government paying for health care is equal, but the base is much more solid.  In fact, "1" on this question is now the plurality view, and is the highest it has been since 1975.  Looking at the trends, what has been happening is that the 2's and 3's have been migrating to 1's.

Not just is "1" the majority or plurality view among all categories of Democrats, but among independents and members of other parties.  In fact, if you look at the 3 levels of GOP the GSS measures, only among "strong GOP" is the plurality for leaving people to fend for themselves.  

Add this into the mix, asking respondents about their personal well being:

I don't know precisely what's behind this one, but after 2004, a lot fewer people report being in "excellent" health, and a good number of them dropped below "good" to "fair."  

And another angle at the confluence of forces in favour of this:

The trend here isn't so pronounced as some others, but even in mid 2008 when this survey was taken (before the meltdown), the level of certainty in job security was decreasing.  Even before the crisis more people were beginning to wonder if they could rely on not just their jobs, but that supposedly great coverage most of them get with them.  As unemployment hits 10%, what do you suppose has happened to this stat, hmm?

The mandate implied by all these long term trends is such that Democrats fail to deliver at their peril.  Republicans are probably making a sound strategic bet in trying to kill this.  Eugen Robinson was on TV tonight warning that Republicans might suffer the ire of voters for killing health reform, but I don't think so.  A disenchanted public that sees its government fail once again to deliver on this missing core piece of the social contract will turn inward.  The Blue Dogs jeopardizing this had better be arranging some cushy insurance jobs for when they leave congress, because they're likely to be the first ones defeated when their supporters stay home.  

It's not 1993 anymore, but I sure hope 2010 doesn't look like 1994.