The non-vital center

by: David Kowalski

Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 15:22

The Democratic victory of 2006 is sometimes spun as a triumph of the conservative Democrats. A more accurate picture is that it was a major defeat for the moderate Republicans and a victory for progressives. Four of the six most moderate Republicans in the House went down to defeat or retired (Sherwood Boehlert was replaced by a Democrat). Three other moderate Republicans were also defeated in the House. The most progressive Republican in the Senate and the fifth most moderate both were defeated (Lincoln Chaffee, Mike DeWine).

The losers and their Progressive Punch scores:

Sherwood Boehlert (retired) 29.31
Jim Leach 28.74
Mike Fitzpatrick 27.00
Nancy Johnson 26.08
Rob Simmons 21.74
Sue Kelly 18.28
Joe Schwarz 15.20

David Kowalski :: The non-vital center

A similar purge is possible this year. Moderate Jim Ramstad has already retired (20.65) and Chris Shays (31.69) is a top target who seems likely to finally fall. Mike Castle (22.58) is in poor health and represents the most Democratic district in the country manned by a GOPer. Dave Reichert (21.28) is on life support after two nail biters. Frank Lo Biondo (20.91) and Chris Smith (23.66) represent swing districts in New Jersey.

Those in trouble from the second ten include Charlie Dent (19.35), Jim Gerlach (19.30), Mark Kirk (19.22),Mike Ferguson(18.17),and James Walsh (17.57).

The picture in the Senate is worse. The most liberal Republican early in the Bush era changed parties. That left Lincoln Chaffee who not only lost, he also subsequently changed his registration to unaffiliated from Republican. Three of the top five and five of the top 10 GOP moderates have their term expire in 2008. One has retired (John Warner, 12.77), three are currently likely to lose (Susan Collins,32.52; Norm Coleman, 17.72; Gordon Smith, 17.34) and the remaining Senator is likely to either retire or be indicted (Ted Stevens, 12.90).

Further down the bench, Pete Domenici (10.59) and John Sunnunu ((10.12) are in trouble. Lindsay Graham (8.52, not much of a moderate) is facing a primary from a more conservative Republican and Chuck Hagel (8.42) retired due to a primary from the right. Only Thad Cochran (8.40) seems safe.

The hits will keep on coming in 2010. Four of the top ten and 10 of the top 23 come up for election that year. Meanwhile, only three of the top 23 (Snowe, Corker, and Lugar) were elected last year. Think of a world where Kay Bailey Hutchison, Jon Ensign, and Thad Cochran are the leading GOP "moderates."

Computerized , safe congressional districts and the Club For Growth have made this world. I wonder why David Broder can't recognize it? I guess he's too busy reminiscing about the good old days.