While glimpsing at my blackberry during vacation, I was eager to put up a new Senate forecast upon arriving back in Philadelphia. Senate forecasting isn't the biggest news right now, but all of the developments over the past three weeks made this an essential piece of housekeeping.
The current forecast shows no net partisan change in the Senate, as Democratic gains in Ohio and Missouri are offset by losses in Connecticut and Delaware. Further, the number of close campaigns is increasing. As the chart below shows, about a handful of campaigns on both sides could also potentially switch. Due significantly to better candidate recruiting, Republicans have a slight advantage in the number of close, potential pickups they have created.
The complete forecast, including colorful charts, more causes for Republican improvement, and implications for ongoing legislative fights, can be found in the extended entry.
Russ Feingold's seat in Wisconsin, and Patty Murray's in Washington, are two other campaigns to watch.)
Notes:
*= Faces primary, but heavy favorite
**= Not an announced canddiate at this time
***= There is no polling in Arkansas for Lincoln against any of the numerous announced Republican candidates. So, polling on Lincoln vs. other candidates, who are probably equally unknown, is listed instead.)
It has been a long time--over four years--since I put together an electoral forecast of any sort that did not predict Democratic gains. This is partially due to Democrats now controlling large majorities, and thus having fewer potential targets. As I mentioned above, a Republican advantage in recruiting is another factor. States like Arizona (no Napolitano), Connecticut (Simmons), Florida (Crist), Illinois (no Madigan), Kansas (no Sebelius), Kentucky (no Bunning), New Hampshire (Ayotte) and North Carolina (no Cooper) are all examples of the Republican recruiting edge to date.
It is also a sign that the political environment is deteriorating for Democrats somewhat. As the economy continues to worsen, expect the Republican position to continue to improve, albeit slowly. Given that Democrats are easily scared into voting like conservatives, this is why Republicans want to delay major legislation as long as possible. Come September or October, Republicans might be forecast to pick up a seat or two. This is will likely make good legislation even more difficult to pass.
If Democrats lose any seats at all in 2010, expect an even more conservative trifecta running D.C. than we have seen so far in 2009.
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