All State Polls Taken August 17th through September 18th Democratic Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Clinton
Edwards
Obama
Richardson
Net Avail Cash
Jun 30
Q2
$29.6M
$11.8M
$33.6M
$6.9M
Iowa
Dec-Jan?
5
26.2%
23.6%
21.0%
11.6%
New Hampshire
Jan 08
4
37.8%
14.0%
17.3%
9.3%
National
Feb 05
NA
39.5%
12.1%
21.5%
2.9%
I have moved Edwards into second place, even though the difference between Edwards and Obama is wafer thin right now in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Obama has far more money and an advantage over Edwards in national polls, but that could easily change once Iowa and New Hampshire are over.
Republican Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Romney
Giuliani
Thompson
McCain
Hukabee
Net Avail Cash
June 30
Q2
$12.1M
$14.7M
$2.8M
$0.1M
$0.4M
Iowa
Dec-Jan?
5
30.8%
14.4%
13.4%
6.6%
9.8%
New Hampshire
Jan 08
4
27.5%
22.8%
11.5%
12.5%
5.3%
South Carolina
Jan 19
4
9.8%
22.0%
22.3%
14.0%
6.8%
National
Feb 05
NA
9.9%
27.2%
20.1%
12.1%
3.4%
(Note: I have included South Carolina on the Republican side because it is currently scheduled to take place ten days earlier than the Democratic version, which I do not currently see as meaningfully separate from national polling given its late date.
Romney's lead in New Hapshire is slipping, and Rudy Giuliani appears to be the main beneficiary. Still, unless someone starts to challenge Romney in Iowa, a smaller lead in New Hamshpire does not matter all that much for him. Of course, speculation of that sort is difficult until we actually know the primary calendar.
Methodological notes can be found in the extended entry.
My averages are different from those at Pollster.com, because I use a simple mean while they use a trendline system. Mystery Pollster writes about that here.
Only announced candidates with 5% or more in most polling averages are shown.
National polling averages taken from Pollster.com. Virtually all early state polls can also be found at Pollster.com.
“Net Available Cash” equals cash on hand minus debts minus amount raised for general election. More information can be found at Open Secrets. Current numbers are not precise, as all data is not yet available.
For Democrats, early state polls that only include Clinton, Edwards and Obama in the questions were not included.
For Democrats, early state polls that include Gore in the question were only included when Gore-less results were unavailable.
February 5th is not actually a national primary, but due to the large number of states holding nomination events on that date, national polls are used as a placeholder.
