According to the Washington Post, the Democratic leadership considers the Progressive Caucus more likely to fold on health care than the Blue Dogs. Emphasis mine:
But the rebellion from fiscal conservatives on the Energy and Commerce Committee last week served as a political wake-up call for Democratic leaders. With enough votes on the panel and on the floor to sink reform legislation, the Blue Dog Coalition forced Pelosi and Emanuel into concessions that made the government plan similar to private health insurance, sparking a new fight with House liberals.
Sensing that the Blue Dogs had dug in for a prolonged fight, Pelosi and Emanuel gave in to most demands in order to get the legislation moving again. They essentially decided that it was better to pick a fight with their liberal flank, where Pelosi remains popular and where loyalty to Obama is strongest, particularly in the Congressional Black Caucus.
Despite threats from almost 60 progressive House Democrats -- who outnumber the Blue Dogs -- Pelosi defended the compromise, saying it was similar to one backed by Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.). Pelosi predicted that the liberal wing would fall in line because the legislation is so important to them.
"Are you asking me, 'Are the progressives going to take down universal, quality, affordable health care for all Americans?' I don't think so," Pelosi told reporters Friday, breaking into laughter at the question.
I am dubious about this quote, since it apparently took place in front of a group of reporters three days ago but it hasn't appeared anywhere except a Washington Post story today. It is also contradicts what Pelosi has previously reiterated, on multiple occasions: that there are not enough votes in the House to pass health care reform without a public option.
Still, experience suggests that Progressives are more likely to fold than Blue Dogs, or at least that the leadership would consider that to be the case. As such, it remains worrying.
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