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I'm not much of a poker player but I know this much: you can overplay a hand and have it backfire but you can lose just as easily by underplaying it. In fact, in poker and many other games, initiative is usually rewarded. My simple point is this: Popular policies should be used as a club to pummel those who oppose such policies. Don't play defense when you have the stronger hand. Two examples: health care and gays in the military. Interestingly, these are two issues Bill Clinton tried to tackle in the first months of his administration. Did he overplay his hand? Perhaps. Here's some data from Gallup on gays in the military: 
The results on the left are from the Clinton days. He wanted to change the military policy on gays/lesbians but lacked enough popular support to get it through. In classic Clinton fashion, he found a compromise: don't ask, don't tell. Eleven years later (almost 5 years ago!) you have support for gays in the military at 2-to-1 in favor. Still, the Obama administration has not acted. They really appear, as Robert Reich argued, to have over learned the lessons of Bill Clinton (who's popularity dropped in 1993/94). But this is a different time. Democrats could lead on this and reap political rewards. Instead they wait. Cautious. Fearful. Do it now and you can get many Republicans/Blue Dogs on record opposing it and use that to sink them in a future election. On health care, a similar dynamic. The public supports reform even if they're not sure about Obama's plan since he's had trouble describing it. But look at these results from CNN's latest poll: Half sample: Do you think it is or is not necessary to make major structural changes in the nation's health care system in order to make sure that all Americans have health insurance? 77% Necessary, 21% Not necessary Half sample: Do you think it is or is not necessary to make major structural changes in the nation's health care system in order to reduce health care costs? 74% Necessary, 23% Not necessary
Again, this is an issue the Blue Dogs and Republicans in states/districts won by Obama should be fearful about. Instead of us capitulating to Blue Dogs, we should be taking the hammer to them. And we don't need to negotiate with Republicans at all but we should be talking about those Republicans in blue-leaning areas who we can oust if they go against the people they represent. We need offense, not defense. The new ad by the DNC (follow inside) is a great start. Put together a strong bill, don't compromise, and make the Blue Dogs and Republicans in competitive districts go on record in opposition. Politically speaking, they're the ones who should be afraid.
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