| Sonia Sotomayor was confirmed by the Senate with all Democrats (minus the ailing Ted Kennedy) supporting her as well as nine Republicans. There has been on ongoing assumption that Republicans are united on everything as demonstrated by the House's unanimous anti-stimulus vote earlier this year. So why did Sotomayor pick up nine Republican votes? Several reasons. 1. Four Republicans who are not seeking reelection voted to confirm her: Judd Gregg, Kit Bond, Mel Martinez and George Voinovich. If you don't have to worry about the crazy right fringe and fundraising you might actually cast a vote based on what you think is right. 2. The Maine Senators, Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe, voted for her. They represent a very blue state (Obama +17) and would have a hard time explaining the vote, especially to women and, perhaps, minorities (although not a large Hispanic population there). 3. Dick Lugar voted for her. He has always been more moderate and is close with Obama. 4. That leaves two Senators which may seem surprising: Lindsay Graham of South Carolina and Lamar Alexander of Tennessee. Surprising until you consider this news item: South Carolina has the fastest growing Hispanic population in the nation followed by the number two state, Tennessee. Strength in numbers. Similar dynamics will come into play for health care reform, climate change legislation, etc. The retiring Senators, even without compromises, may be less influenced by campaign contributions and right-wing pressure. The Maine Senators probably want to be reelected and that could be difficult in an Obama+17 state if one or the other cast the deciding vote against a major bill. And local considerations could also lead to a Senator or representative to break from the pack. The point is, once again, write the best health care bill possible (and the other issues) and put it up for a vote. Don't assume unanimity on the GOP side: make them cast the difficult vote. UPDATE: And good luck to Republican Senator John Kyl on getting reelected in 2012. More than a third of the state of Arizona will be Hispanic then, Obama will be running for reelection and Kyl only took 53% in 2006 when the Hispanic population was still in the 20s percentage-wise. He voted against Sotomayor and basically called her a liar who's answers lacked substance. |
