Finally, We Are Exceeding Expectations Again

by: Chris Bowers

Fri Aug 07, 2009 at 00:08


The $2 billion extension of "Cash for Clunkers" passed the Senate this evening. The vote was 60-37, with the following partisan cross-overs:

  • Six Republicans voted in favor: Alexander (TN), Bond (MO), Collins (ME), Corker (TN), Snowe (ME) and Voinovich (OH).
  • Four Democrats voted against it: Leahy (VT), McCaskill (MO), Nelson (NE) and Warner (VA).
  • Three Democrats did not vote: Byrd (WV), Kennedy (MA) and Mikulski (MD).
In my gut, I absolutely love this program. Partly this is because it shows stimulus can be successful. Part of it is because, like all Americans, I now have an ownership stake in a major car company. But mainly, I love it because it has exceeded expectations, and done so by a long way. The program was projected to take something like three months to sell out, but instead it took less than two weeks.

When in the last time anything the federal government has done exceeded expectations, at least in a positive sense? It seems like everything over the past ten years was worse than expected. This even goes for 2009, when the stimulus was smaller than hoped for, the climate change bill was weaker than hoped for, card-check didn't pass, D.C. still doesn't have full representation in the House, cramdown didn't pass, executives at companies receiving bailout money are still getting huge bonuses, and health care reform legislation is struggling. Perhaps my expectations were too high, but I have been frustrated none the less.

I am fully aware of the criticisms some progressives have made of the legislation:

  • Bad funding source: As A Siegel and Senator Bingaman both note, the funding has been taken from a pool of money previously designated for long-term green jobs. There were lots of other places where the money could have come from (like TARP) that would not have actually hurt the new green economy in the long-run.

  • Rewarding polluters: This is a sentiment I understand:

    More than a dozen years ago, I bought a car. Even way back then, when gas was less than a buck twenty-five a gallon, I cared about how much gasoline I was consuming.

    So I bought a car that got quite a bit more than 18 mpg.

    Now, I've finally saved up enough money to buy another car.

    And I'm getting screwed.

    I'm getting shafted because I didn't buy a gas-guzzling pig. Because my car didn't contribute enough to pollution and global warming.

    Much like the Wall Street bailout rewarding the same people who destroyed the economy, and much like the climate change bill is handing over tens of billions to the worst polluters in the country, "cash for clunkers" is an example of rewarding people for screwing things up. It really isn't fair that all of the people who were socially responsible in the first place are not eligible for this program, even if they were to purchase new cars with even higher fuel efficiencies.

  • No means testing. I also agree with Senator Harkin, who wanted to limit the people eligible for the program by income. If income isn't an issue, then aren't rich people with SUVs, good credit ratings and a lot of money in the bank the most likely to take advantage of it? I am honestly guessing on this one, because there are no statistics available to prove or disprove that hypothesis
So yes, there are some problems with the program. However, I am just going to let my emotions dominate on this one. Even if it is only with $3 billion out of $3.55 trillion, it sure is nice to see the federal government exceeding expectations once again.
Chris Bowers :: Finally, We Are Exceeding Expectations Again

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Reasons (4.00 / 1)
Some 20 or 25 years ago, I came up with a more extrteme version of cash for clunkers.  My idea at the time was that the government should take $10 billion (then the entire budget of the Energy Department), and buy the highest mileage car made in America (then the Volkswagen Rabbit made in Pennsylvania).  We should give people Rabbits getting IIRC 37 mpg in exchange for the worst clunkers around.  No means test.  That would impede the switch out. It would also add to the costs.  The purpose was to cut down on oil imports and help create jobs in America.

I realized that the policy could be in more recent parlance gamed.  I did not care.  The smoky gas-guzzlers would be gone and we would import a lot less from OPEC. Means testing also happens to make this a welfare program that would get shriveled up and be inherently unpopular.  The lesson of Social Security is that means testing may sound good but general programs for everyone have more popularity and staying power.

The benefit of my program was that it would actually cause a competition to create more fuel efficient cars.  The 30 mpg or 20 mpg cars would not qualify for purchase only the 37 mpg.  Want to bet that soon the mileage war would begin as GM or Ford would crank out something better , a 39 mpg car?  What about more efficient cars already built either licensing the technology or opening plants in the US. for 42 mpg cars?  And onward.  The highways would soon be filled with hyper-efficient cars.

Cash for clunkers?  Too small.  The government should pay more but get more extreme.  Good start though.


Ideally, it would be paid for (0.00 / 0)
by a combination of supplemental gas guzzler taxes and automaker rebates, so taxpayers don't have to foot the bill. But even if not, it will probably pay for itself long-term through environmental externalities. Every unit of emmission no longer emitted saves us something down the line, monetarily, in various ways.

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton

[ Parent ]
Agreed! (0.00 / 0)
And while we're at it, how about subsidizing bicycles?  Just saying...

[ Parent ]
All highway money (0.00 / 0)
should include requirements to build bike corridors!

Montani semper liberi

[ Parent ]
Agreed (4.00 / 4)
There are some legitimate issues with the program, but overall this seems like a textbook example of when not to let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

Now if they're only cover my mom's '92 Camry... (4.00 / 2)
Apparently, its mpg is too high. When they say clunkers, they mean it.

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton

Yeah and my '86 Mazda pickup (0.00 / 0)
It gets 21 mpg. "Missed it by that much."

[ Parent ]
EFCA (0.00 / 0)
I think to keep saying that card-check didn't pass is a misrepresentation of what happened. Wasn't it not ever taken up for a vote? At least not during this Congress.

There is no Buy American Provision (4.00 / 1)
which means to the extent people buy a Prius or a Fusion Hybrid we are helping the Japanesse Economy (the Prius is entirely made in Japan) or the Mexican Economy (the Fusion is made in Mexico).

In many ways this is the perfect program.  It isn't costing much in the grand scheme of things, people are actually talking about it, and it does get old cars off the road.

But I find it fascinating how scared we are of focusing it on creating American jobs.


43% have bought GM and Ford.... (4.00 / 1)
Chrysler also has a car on the top 10 list of cars bought with the program, and the Honda and Toyota cars on the top ten list have significant U.S. parts and are assembled in the U.S...

Even with cars like the Prius, which are fully imported, purchasers pay significant local sales taxes, which is desperately needed in their communities at this time...

No, it's not perfect... and I wish it had a buy America provision, but I think many folks assume that only American cars apply, since at least 50% of purchases are from domestic manufacturers....

Of course, when I cashed in my clunker, I got a U.S. union made and assembled vehicle... built right here in my state...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


[ Parent ]
The reasons are a huge whine. (4.00 / 3)
"pool of money previously designated for long-term green jobs"

Right now, basic green jobs involve a blow dryer and a piece of plastic.  High end green jobs are still going to India.   The battery money is worth a zillion more to this country than weatherization jobs.

Means testing?   Are they suggesting welfare people ought to qualify?  Or, only people who can barely afford the car payments ought to qualify?  Please.  The point is to stimulate the economy, sell cars, and here's a unique idea -let all of the people benefit from their tax dollars.    If Obama had simply passed the bank bailout money through the debt holders, he could have eliminated their debts, too; and we wouldn't have all of the bankruptcies and foreclosures we currently have.   Oh, but gee.  Somebody with a buck or two might make a buck or two; and lord knows, the middle class getting anything is a major no.  

Conservatives steal it all to reward the rich, and liberals give everything away to the poor.  This is how liberals and Democrats fell out of favor, and the Reagan Democrats got born.  When working people feel they have more in common with rich people than poor people, obviously, something is wrong.   Johnson's war on poverty lasted too long and abandoned working people.  Clinton abandoned working people for the rich and corporate. No wonder the Democratic Party has no populist core.   It lost it 40 years ago.  Means testing.  Next thing I know, I'll see someone recommending smaller government and lower taxes.  

I am sorry to be so short, but I get really tired of the whine whenever it has to do with autos.  This bill is helping people, creating jobs - real jobs, and helping the environment.  With Obama's wonderful health care program on the way; we have nothing better to do.  


They're asking for another four years -- in a just world, they'd get 10 to 20. ~~ Dennis Kucinich  


Votes (0.00 / 0)
Any reason given why Leahy (VT), McCaskill (MO) voted against?

Prairie State Blue Covering Illinois Democratic politics.

Leahy says he wants more oversight (0.00 / 0)
From Burlington Free Press.com:

U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., also has signed on to extending the program, but Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., has not. Leahy is seeking administration data about the effectiveness of the trade-in program before authorizing billions more in funding.

"I have been troubled by recent reports that the Department of Transportation is refusing to publicly release useful government information about the performance of the so-called 'cash for clunkers' car rebate program," Leahy wrote to Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood on Tuesday, citing the Freedom of Information Act.

McCaskill is apparently a Twitter fiend who sent the message:

We simply cannot afford any more taxpayr $ to extend cash for clunkers. Idea was to prime the pump, not subsidize auto purchases forever.


Things You Don't Talk About in Polite Company: Religion, Politics, the Occasional Intersection of Both

[ Parent ]
Yes, giving normal people cash is good for the economy. (4.00 / 1)
This was, by the way, the money they used to earn, before the Chicago School taught Wall Street how to steal it.

Take the complaint about "rewarding" polluters (4.00 / 4)
And imagine someone taking the same tone in complaining that he ate a healthy diet and kept fit, but is unhappy that a more progressive health care plan, if passed, might effectively be making him subsidize people with unhealthy lifestyle choices that contribute to the national health care crisis.

It's the same mentality used by people who complain that they have jobs and pay a decent chunk of taxes and think that they are subsidizing a bunch of bums on welfare.

A lot of people view government spending through the lens of "good people should receive more help from the government than bad people" and tend to view themselves as "good", so all political arguments tend to be permeated with an air of moral superiority.  

Things You Don't Talk About in Polite Company: Religion, Politics, the Occasional Intersection of Both


real cost of cash for clunkers is $45,354 per car (4.00 / 1)
This is an article which claims that the real cost of this program is a lot more than the billion:

http://seekingalpha.com/articl...

The "Cash for Clunkers" program has been a "great success", at least according to the government, and the auto industry. Within days of its kickoff, all $1 billion allocated to the program has been used up by Americans who have eagerly lined up to trade their clunkers for new vehicles.

Some refreshingly honest reporting has come from Edmunds.com, a car buying site that is telling the truth, in spite of benefiting from an increase in business and site traffic, due to the program. According to Edmunds, about 200,000 old low mileage cars would normally be traded in, every 3 months, in exchange for more efficient higher mileage cars, without this program.

The highest rebate is $4,500, and the lowest is $3,500. If everyone qualified for $4,500 per vehicle, about 222,000 vehicles would have just taken advantage of the government's money. At $3,500, 286,000 vehicles will have been sold.

I assume that, given all the raving, the government will eventually get around to assigning more money. It will take at least 2 or 3 months for the legislation to work its way through Congress. Meanwhile, if all buyers have qualified for the higher $4,500 rebate, the "cash for clunkers" program will mean a marginal increase in car sales of 22,000 this quarter. $1 billion divided by 22,000 means a net cost to the government of $45,354 per car.

Disclosure: No positions in any automaker.



So let's say a million people end up buying a car with 10 mpg higher (0.00 / 0)
fuel efficiency because of this program.

How much gas is saved per day? How much less CO2 is released?  What's the green benefit here.  If it's eye popping, then cash for clunkers should be extended even further.

John McCain won't insure children


The "rewarding polluters" charge is unfair and mostly inaccurate.. (0.00 / 0)
I was a landscape designer when I bought my Bronco II in 1988.  I chose the less costly and more efficient version of the Ford Bronco at the time.
Many other like me can't put mileage first when vehicles are a part of the job.  Nor are costlier vehicles which may get a few more mpg's a possibility for many on tight budgets.

In addition, I take care of my vehicles - as well as other things - and aren't prone to dumping old stuff on the streets or in the towering landfills for shiny new toys.  
I love my Bronco and couldn't justify getting rid of it on a number of fronts - until now.

While my vehicle isn't as bad as many others - I'm trying to do my fu****part, because of theis program and the timing.

Democrats like Mikulski who - who fought CAFE standards, hardly have the standing to criticize me or anyone else who partakes of this program.  
We all - rich or poor - are having a positive impact on our air quality.  As opposed to a growing chorus of NO's chronically slowing any real progress - from both sides of the aisle.  

Nationalism is not the same thing as terrorism, and an adversary is not the same thing as an enemy.


I screwed up (0.00 / 0)
I bought a jeep that gets 12 miles to the gallon in December of 2007.  I want to fix this problem and would love to use this program to do it, but I don't own it.  The bank does.

So it's not scrap-worthy.  And I have to keep getting 12 miles to the gallon.  Sure wish I had a Ford Escape Hybrid.

$3000 less per year in gas is probably a good enough reason to trade in my Jeep anyway.  Maybe I'll consider it.

Wish this program gave me $4500 to get a vehicle with 20 miles per gallon more.  I would eat the other $4000 in trade loss.  I can't afford it otherwise.


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