Shorter Sebelius: Welcome to a regressive tax which will rise faster than wages or inflation

by: Ian Welsh

Sun Aug 16, 2009 at 18:30


As Heinlein once said, I laugh because otherwise I'd cry (and scream, and pound my head against the wall):

Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said the White House would be open to co-ops instead of a government-run public option, a sign Democrats want a compromise so they can declare a victory on the must-win showdown.(TL)

Ok, so let's say they ditch it and include an individual mandate, meaning you are forced to buy insurance from private insurers or co-ops (which won't be able to contain costs).  What is that?

It is a regressive tax.  Given the likely pathetic subsidies it will hit the working and middle classes hardest as it will be a higher proportion of their income than for the rich.  Since health care costs will not be properly contained, they will rise faster than pay will (they have for decades now).  So every year you will be forced to spend more of your money than the year before and will have less money left over.

A regressive tax which rises faster than pay rises.

This is forced increased spending on domestic financial services, which is what insurance is. I guess that's Obama's economic plan as well as his health care plan.  And bonus, since there'll be no denials and no recessions, you won't be able to get out of it  in any fashion, except death.

Death and taxes, the first gets you out of the second.  And a health care mandate without effective cost controls is an ever growing tax till you die.

Ian Welsh :: Shorter Sebelius: Welcome to a regressive tax which will rise faster than wages or inflation

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Shorter Sebelius: Welcome to a regressive tax which will rise faster than wages or inflation | 52 comments
I prefer Harlan Ellison to the reactionary Heinlein (4.00 / 3)
"I have no mouth and I must scream" - imho a fitting picture, too. Because you may scream as loud as you want, the people in power won't hear you. You may as well be mouthless...
thank you for beating me to it (4.00 / 1)
neither of them are progressive heroes of sci fi i want to see mentioned a lot, but of the two ellison is superior. it's a shame there's so much libertardian nonsense in popular sci fi, but then again that's probably on purpose.  
[ Parent ]
co-ops (4.00 / 6)
a terrible idea which we must oppose vigorously
how can Obama not see (4.00 / 6)
that this is political suicide for the Democratic party? Our current advantage with under-30 voters won't last long when middle-income people have to fork out $3k to $5K a year for crappy insurance. Singles and marrieds with no kids probably won't qualify for subsidies either.  

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
Because he can't or won't see, that's why (4.00 / 8)
Over and over he's shown himself to be a short-term strategist, more a tactician than a strategist, really, and not a very good one, at that--the exact opposite of someone who's good at "11D Chess". Like Clinton, he's focused on easy short-term "wins", rather than realizing that this is a generational, decades-long struggle in which yes, you might need to lose a few here and there, but to get to where you need to be, you've got to win most of the big fights. And he either doesn't see this, or doesn't care, his priorities lying elsewhere.

I think that in the end, he's just fooling himself with his post-partisan, post-political warfare pseudo-ideology of live to fight another day, without ever actually fighting. He's playing for short-term gain, or to not lose, and that's a recipe for long-term loss. It's like watching one of those frustrating football games based almost entirely on a running strategy of successive small yardage gains, in which the ball is rarely thrown, let alone thrown long, and the coach is happy with lots of field goals instead of a few key touchdowns. And forget about extra point conversions. I'm no football expert, but has that EVER yielded a Super Bowl win?

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton

[ Parent ]
Ask any Browns fan about the prevent defense. (4.00 / 1)
The answer is no
[ Parent ]
Just what I thought (4.00 / 3)
Obama thought that it would be really cool to be president, had a plan for winning, ran, and won. What to do afterwards? Not a clue. But isn't it so cool that he won?

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton
[ Parent ]
Perfect post. (0.00 / 0)
Couldn't agree more.
[ Parent ]
That's a bit harsh, imho. (0.00 / 0)
I'm sure he did have a plan for the presidency. He's simply too intelligent not to think about that. And imho he believed it would be like during his time as president of the Harvard Law Review. Reaching out across the aile, finding compromises everybody is happy with, and get things done that way. Totally illusory in national politics right now, of course. The GOP simply isn't "conservatives", it's a political organisation whose almost sole goal is getting into power, and who would use all means, legal and illegal, to achieve that. There can't be any compromises with this Mob. Obama has to learn this the hard way.  
[ Parent ]
How smart is it... (0.00 / 0)
... to think that being President is the same as being editor of the Harvard Law Review?

I am in earnest -- I will not equivocate -- I will not excuse -- I will not retreat a single inch -- AND I WILL BE HEARD.  
[ Parent ]
Only a small bit smarter than having no plan at all, indeed. (0.00 / 0)
I tried to make the ironic point that Obama sure must have had a plan about the presidency, but that it doesn't look like it makes any sense.
[ Parent ]
1994 is coming. (4.00 / 5)
I have no enthusiasm to give money or work for any candidae.  
[ Parent ]
above the fray (4.00 / 2)
To me, this was a key quote, from the town hall where he said that a public option is just a "sliver" of health care reform:
And by the way, it's both the right and the left that have become so fixated on this that they forget everything else.

It's purely speculation, but I think he is very tied up in being the reasonable person that's not captured by extremes. Which is all well and good, but his definition of what's "extreme" discards a lot of really not very revolutionary options, simply because they're outside the Village consensus. When your right foot is in Crazy, it kinda doesn't matter where your left foot is.

I also suspect that he really sees this as fundamental reform. What we definitely have learned is that he has a fairly narrow concept of "fundamental".

If I was a Progressive Caucus member of the House, I honestly don't know how hard I'd fight this anymore. It's a battle between a third of a loaf and a half. I'm not saying that's the right strategy or anything, just that it has to be pretty dispiriting.

not everything worth doing is profitable. not everything profitable is worth doing.

[ Parent ]
Fixated? (4.00 / 1)
President Obama, this is the core of any meaningful health care reform. Without this, it would be like banana cream pie without the bananas. This is classic bait and switch tactics, selling a product on its key virtue, then switching to something else when you've come to take possession, and being given a song and dance about how it's just as good.

Do they literally have no shame? Are they this cheaply bought?

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton

[ Parent ]
I am so impressed. (0.00 / 0)
You're on a roll. I find myself thinking, "Yeah!" after everything you write.
[ Parent ]
On mandates (4.00 / 1)
Disclaimer: I support the public option, and I hope the House progressives will hold together and vote down any bill that doesn't have it.

However, that said, if you're going to require insurance companies to accept all patients regardless of pre-existing conditions, then there has to be some kind of mandate system requiring people to buy insurance. Otherwise, people will just opt out until they start having medical problems, then buy insurance and get the tests and treatments they need.

That's why single-payer works; because everyone is required to pay in all the time, not just when they get sick.

Yes (4.00 / 7)
mandates are necessary to work with a universal system that requires insurance companies to accept anyone.  Agreed.  However, a mandate without real cost control (aka. a good public option, though there are other ways to do it), is disastrous.  It's two parts of the system without a third, necessary part.

As I wrote a friend early in the debate, the problem with not just doing single payer is that doing insurance reform well without it, while keeping private insurance companies involved is very difficult.  Not impossible, but very very hard, and I feared, beyond DC pols.

[ Parent ]
Mandates also require cost assistance (4.00 / 4)
Including much, much better subsidies than the rather paltry crap that has been included in HR 3200 so far.
[ Parent ]
You think that HR 3200 is bad? (4.00 / 5)
Wait until you see what Baucus is coming out with... it's a lot less... I've seen the reports, they are NOT pretty!

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
[ Parent ]
Nothing good could come out of that committee from the start... (0.00 / 0)
...regarding the way Baucus organized the work on the bill. His choice of players involved ensured that opponents of the bill would have everyopportunity to throw wenches into the gears, and the secrecy allowed then to do this without any negative PR. Absolutely worst way to handle this. And I can't believe a veteran like Baucus didn't realize that. To me, this look like a deliberate sabotage effort. I wish someone would come up with a scandal that would provide a lever to force him to resign. That jerk is a shame for the Democratic party.
[ Parent ]
What's EVEN worse (4.00 / 1)
Is a mandate, without a public option, that also includes government tax breaks for poor people's insurance outlays. Because the government ends up taking on the costs (in terms of lower tax revenues) of the riskiest pool of patients and in effect subsidizes the insurance carriers. The public option solves this problem by creating a big enough pool of patients to lower risks and leave the insurance companies out of the equation.
[ Parent ]
Yet another drone-like corporatist technocratic New Democrat (4.00 / 1)
All I want to know is where they crank out all these robots, who think and talk exactly alike, down to their monotonic and dispassionate speaking style, without inflection, emotion or soul. These people are barely alive, hiding behind cleverly-crafted focus-grouped talking points that say nothing and mean even less. Even when she spoke about her mother's horrible last few months, it came across like she was describing HHS policy for procuring stationary and toner.

They just can't help it. They simply cannot help it. Not only do they talk like drones, they operate like drones. And if their leader says DO THIS, they do it, without complaint. Yes men and women who I'm sure will someday be replaced by actual robots because they bring absolutely nothing meaningfully original or personal to the job. Obama has decided that this is yet one more fight that he'd just as soon not join, so the directive has been issued and is being implemented: no public option, whatever you need to get those 60+ votes, make it happen.

And, ironically, this is actually a lot closer to a real "Death Panel" than those made-up ones coming from the right. Without a strong public option, people will undeniably die, and many of them will be somebody's grandma. Nice going there, Kathleen.

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton

by the way (4.00 / 3)
My shorter Sebelius is shorter than your shorter Sebelius!

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
lol (4.00 / 2)
you go!

Except I wonder if they feel it it is a surrender.  Sibelius was pretty wish washy on the public option from the start, iirc.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, but at least (4.00 / 3)
Obama fought hard publicly and privately for the PO, you know gave that primetime speech explaining why it's important and then went like gangbusters into the conference committee and threatened and cajoled and...oh, forget it.
[ Parent ]
I wish Sebelius had stayed in Kansas (4.00 / 6)
and kept blocking new coal-fired power plants. She would have accomplished a lot more there than at HHS the way things are going.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
Daschle would have already caved... (4.00 / 6)
Remember his "bipartisan" plan with Dole?

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
[ Parent ]
Ahhhh! Thanks for making nearly everybody (4.00 / 4)
throw up a little in their mouths today, Mike! Way to spice up a Sunday!
[ Parent ]
A public option (especially the versions that have passed committe) aren't even central to cost control in the firtst fuckin place (4.00 / 2)
Brien Jackson gets it

http://www.below-the-fold.com/...

I've been trying to get this across the whole time (4.00 / 4)
Co-ops will be a disaster. If the insurance companies have to effectively charge everyone the same rates, everyone is forced to accept insurance, and there is no cost control, the average person is going to see their insurance rates skyrocket.

What will immediately happen to those "co-ops" is that the insurance companies will take over their boards, and ensure that they are completely ineffective.

This is a sad, sad situation.  

n/t (4.00 / 1)
The problem is that even though a public option would rein in administrative costs, it's not clear how it would hold down medical costs themselves on its own.  For one thing, while it's competing with private insurers for customers, it's also competing with them for doctors (unless doctors are forced to accept the public option--correct me if that's the case).  Of course it's possible that universal access itself will decrease medical costs across the board because people with regular access to a doctor will be healthier, but this is the case with or without a public option.
No, it's not the problem (4.00 / 1)
Because it's not the only component to health insurance reform. Others are medical boards to determine what works and is cost-efficient and what's not, fraud reduction, computerization of medical records and procedures, economies of scale, mandates, etc. The public option would, though, enforce this on the entire system, through competition, if not by mandate on insurers who would have to abide by these developments. There are many parts to this. But the most important one is the public option, because it assures affordable access to all.

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton
[ Parent ]
According to the Hill, Conrad isn't even pushing his co-op crap (4.00 / 2)
Conrad also suggested Finance may not make a mid-September deadline for reaching an agreement. He said the six senators on the panel who are working on a compromise have agreed to "be ready when we're ready," While Conrad said they hope to reach a conclusion by mid-September, they won't be bound by that timeframe.

"This is not something that should be held hostage to any specific deadline," he said.

We knew the Republicans didn't want any change to the system, and it turns out the Dem "centrists" don't really feel a need for reform of any kind, either.

Obama left us, we didn't leave him. (4.00 / 3)
We must oppose Obamacare and defeat it.
Shortest Sibelius (4.00 / 9)
Photobucket

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton
Perfectly stated (4.00 / 6)
I have said for months now if Democrats pass a bill that mandates every adult acquire insurance coverage or face a significant penalty without a providing government regulated, medicare linked, national non-profit plan within the 'exchange' they will have committed political suicide.

The best we can hope for from this bill is that it's defeated (4.00 / 3)
Sherrod Brown and other thoughtful Democrats have insisted on a real public option as the minimum for going forward.  

People like him need to vote "no"

Progressive Democrats saving the country from severe disillusion and the Democratic Party (4.00 / 1)
from DLC 'centrists'

Progressives in Congress need to voice their disgust loudly.

[ Parent ]
Change requires an enemy (4.00 / 1)
The way to win an election is to make your opponent and unacceptable choice.

The way to win real health care reform is to make the status quo an unacceptable alternative.

The best way to expose the truth about what we have is to laud it's idiocy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Sarcasm is always a better argument than sincerity.

sp

Apparently, we haven't done a good enough job of that... (0.00 / 0)
The majority of people think that reforming the system would make it worse... which blows my mind completely!

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
[ Parent ]
I know that we are going to have the requisite Obama hate... (0.00 / 0)
...but, I'm pretty sure he's just as disappointed as we are...

None of us expected the bottom to fall out in support of reform like it has...  literally, within weeks in July,the poll numbers flipped for no explainable reason...

Obama doesn't write the laws... he can only execute them... and, unfortunately, there are still too many cowards and turncoats in our caucus...  A president can push for only so much... Bush didn't get his immigration reform... he didn't get his Social Security destruction.... even with a very compliant congress behind his back...

Yeah, we lost, but Obama lost, too... he'll get something to save his face and something that will improve access for many people, but it won't be good enough to ensure political realignment, and we can blame cowardly congressfolk for that one...  If anyone sees short term, it is they.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

Not hating... (4.00 / 3)
BUT there is a definite explainable reason as to why the poll numbers flipped--Obama. This administration. They did not present and explain this bill and the PO and their plan for reform to America in a concise, clear, and positive way. They seemed lost and people were confused and confused people get scared. Scared people dont support big reform. They used very poor judgement and used pointless tactics that backfired and now, here we are.
[ Parent ]
Message failure (0.00 / 0)
Obama's arrogance, and his apparent belief that his own magnificence would overcome all obstacles, are at the root of the healthcare reform fail.

Where was the primetime address to the nation explaining why healthcare reform was so important, both at the individual and the national levels?  The primetime address that laid down the key principles that any acceptable reform legislation should satisfy?

And where was the grassroots organizing against the GOP ground game in August that everyone should have anticipated?

Instead we had Obama trying to sell an Excel spreadsheet, being careful not to tie himself too publicly to an effort he seemed ambiguous about at best, while his hapless political staff spun their wheels trying to figure out which way to turn.

Pathetic.

[ Parent ]
Where? (0.00 / 0)
Where was the primetime address to the nation explaining why healthcare reform was so important, both at the individual and the national levels?

It was taken over by Lynn Sweet asking a question about a non-issue.

And where was the grassroots organizing against the GOP ground game in August that everyone should have anticipated?

They were too busy complaining their wishes weren't being satisfied.  

[ Parent ]
even worse (4.00 / 1)
It will be a regressive tax that will produce billionaire CEOs in the insurance industry.
I'm utterly confused... (4.00 / 5)
First, we have this report. But then, Robert Gibbs says The White House still wants a public option. I'm deeply and utterly confused as to what they're doing, and this is precisely the problem! If they were to just stick to one simple message, we wouldn't be in this mess. Democratic leaders should have just listened to Kucinich & Conyers by pushing HR 676 and billing it as "Medicare for All".

Yes, Virginia, there are progressives in Nevada.
If I can channel my inner Pollyanna here (4.00 / 1)
perhaps the White House is starting to freak that maybe this time they have finally kicked the DFH's one time too many?

The rightwing has unleashed the zombie hordes at the townhalls, and I can't help but think Team Obama would love to counter that with their own placard-waving crowds, but those crowds just aren't appearing. I wonder why.

So maybe this "will he/won't he" about the public option is an attempt to find their footing? Maybe they will walk back the walk back if they figure out that's what they have to do to bring back the adoring crowds?

No way to run a railroad, I agree, but if it forces Obama to do the right thing I'll take it.

Montani semper liberi

[ Parent ]
This... (4.00 / 1)
This is what is wrong. This sort of thinking and "I'll take it" talk. Obama needs to just be clear and upfront like he pledged to be and stand up strongly for what we (and he?) wants. We are getting lost in the games and bull. This is why people will not listen. They can sense something is not meshing here. Obama needs to follow through.
[ Parent ]
I guess it depends on (4.00 / 1)
your theory of Obama. I never mistook him for a fighter. Wasn't that his schtick during the campaign, "I'm a lover not a fighter?"

When he won, I knew the only way we'd ever get good results ought of him was if we scared him more then the other side.

And this time, maybe we did.

Montani semper liberi

[ Parent ]
probably a timing screwup (0.00 / 0)
they need to get a bill through the House first, and realized that this co-op stuff was going to cause problems there. which, hello, shouldn't that have been clear going in?

i think we're safe to conclude that the sum of all their messages is that their words don't matter one way or another. not the ones for public consumption, at least. we'll know what's in the bill when he signs it.

not everything worth doing is profitable. not everything profitable is worth doing.

[ Parent ]
Especially for the young and healthy (4.00 / 1)
I never had insurance during my 20s, finally got it through an employer at age 30. Paying car insurance was bad enough, health insurance would have been yet another burden. If you are going to have an individual mandate, give those kids the option of buying a cheaper public option. Please. Otherwise we will see more Republicans elected in future Senates and no public option will ever happen.

BTW, I'm really tired of Dems negotiating with themselves, before the final hours of the conference committee. Give no quarter, or you look weak. Ask for more than you think you can get, not less.

Exactly… (0.00 / 0)
...geez, wasn't the President s'posed to be done with tentative aspirations/demands after the stimulus fiasco? The opposition doesn't really have the cards, but they always seem to outbluff the White House. Every single pundit show on Sun morning was pushing the "let's-get-something" line...it's nuts.

"This ain't for the underground. This here is for the sun." -Saul Williams
[ Parent ]
Shorter Sebelius: Welcome to a regressive tax which will rise faster than wages or inflation | 52 comments





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