The passing of Kennedy is just a hint of the turnover that would seem likely to take place over the next three years. A lot of longtime players in the House and Senate are probably going to exit, due to age or health or simply falling out of fortune at home.
Byrd is almost 92, Lautenberg is 85, Tim Johnson is young at 63, but obviously had serious health problems in his recent past. It's hard to imagine Lieberman running again in 2012, as the political grounds seem to have shifted out from under him back home. Fellow Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd is fighting both prostate cancer and the perception of ethics problems. Both Nevada Senators (Ensign and Reid) have horrible poll numbers, Nelson (up for re-election in 2012)has taken a hit in his polls due to health care, and Lincoln and Landrieu are also expected to have tough races. Kay Bailey Hutchison is running for Governor of Texas. Arizona is no longer an automatic victory for McCain. Obama's old seat in Illinois will be "back on the market" again in the next election. And it remains to be seen if "Lincoln Logs" Vitter will be well received at home.
For those Senators who aren't plagued by age or illness or immediate popularity problems, most of these seem to be from the '92 and '94 elections, and it's only natural that they begin to cycle out as they near the end of what would be their third terms.
And that doesn't even begin to address the House, where (for example) longtime legislators Rangel and Dingell are likely in their last terms.
If even half of these people leave office in the next three years, it will create a huge ripple effect in Chairs and committee assignments, and therefore major change in the climate on Capitol Hill. As just one small example: an exit by Rangel would be a real loss to health care reform advocates...at the same time it could create an opening for Fair Trade proponents that Rangel has long held at bay.
However, all we really know is that the collective impact of such turnover would be very big...we don't know what that impact would actually be. An era of fluidity may be about to hit Capitol Hill
I think this dramatically underscores the need for Progressive Populists to get a standing funding machine in place that will promote their own candidates, not just for their initial election, but as they progress upward because of new openings...
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