Stuff I Don't Trust

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 12:58


"Trust" is a nebulous, subjective, qualitative and irrational concept.  As such, it usually isn't granted a "serious" place in political discussions by "serious" people.  This even goes for the more "serious" people in our little progressive media world.  For example, policy analysts, such as Ezra Klein, or quantitative analysts, such as Nate Silver, would probably be extremely reluctant to include "trust" in their latest analysis of the Baucus health care plan, or the effectiveness of the ACES climate change legislation.

Nonetheless, trust plays a large role in all aspects of political action. The degree to which an individual trusts a party, a policy, an individual politician will heavily influence that individual's interpretations of the efficacy of and / or willingness to support, that party, policy or individual.  As such, for no real other purpose but to provide disclosure on my general orientation to the ongoing health care fight, here is a long list of how much I trust the different players and aspects of the debate. Mainly, it is a long list of why I don't really trust anyone involved.

More in the extended entry.

Chris Bowers :: Stuff I Don't Trust
Who I don't trust and why:

  • Although it might go without saying, I trust virtually none of the Republicans or conservative Democrats in Congress to be good faith actors. Over the past forty years, it seems to me that these groups have consistently passed legislation that has led to the overwhelming majority of economic growth in this country ending up in the hands of the top 5% of income earners.  While they claim to be bi-partisan and common sense, in practice they only perpetuate an economic, political and media system that is primarily responsive to powerful, status-quo institutions. I will continue to not trust them--and their calls for common sense, bi-partisan solutions--until the majority of them support legislation that actually changes the direction of the flow of wealth in this country, and enforce regulations in a way that does not disproportionately benefit powerful people and institutions.

  • I don't really trust the Progressive Block to hold firm.  I want to believe them, because I think they really do want government to be responsive to more than just powerful, status-quo institutions and individuals. However, their past defeats leave me wary.  Many in the same members of Congress who are in the current Progressive Block folded on the second vote for the Wall Street bailout, and also on attaching IMF funding to the Afghanistan supplemental. They seem to have folded simply because they were asked to do so by either candidate or President Obama, and because they were given the meager of legislative concessions in return.

    Is there any reason to believe this won't just happen again?  The regular indications that the Block is simply a bluff don't give me a lot of confidence.  I suppose I won't believe them until they actually score a major legislative victory by holding firm.

  • I don't trust the Obama administration, either. I never really have trusted them, and this has been a major cause of friction I have had with many bloggers and commenters since the end of the election. Given that we are still early on in the Obama administration, the difference between progressive bloggers who are largely critical, and those who are largely supportive, of the Obama administration primarily comes down to this issue of trust.

    If you are a progressive and trust President Obama, then appointing a huge number of pro-industry and pro-Blue Dog moderates to key administration positions (Rahm Emanuel, Tim Geithner and Larry Summers being the most prominent cases) is actually a means of symbolically placating powerful institutions while still advancing progressive goals behind the scenes.  However, if you don't trust the administration, then this is simply continuing to make sure that the government remains primarily responsive to powerful, status quo institutions and individuals.

    If you are a progressive and trust President Obama, then when things like cramdown and card check get defeated, or when the stimulus and climate change bill are weakened, it was because that was the best anyone could be done in our current political environment.  However, if you are me, then it seems like these defeats could have been avoided, or at least lessened, if the administration had offered more than token, verbal support. The administration's unwillingness to take on powerful, status-quo institutions comes off as satisfaction with those powerful, status-quo institutions. This is especially the case when they heavily pressure Progressives to fold on things like the Wall Street bailout or IMF funding, but offer no comparable pressure to conservative Democrats who seek to block the most progressives aspects of their proposed policy (and in fact privately admonish progressive groups who independently go after those conservative Democrats.)

    I will probably trust the Obama administration a lot more when a major piece of legislation is passed into law against the overwhelming objections of the major industry that is affected by that legislation.  This simply hasn't happened yet.

  • I don't trust a regulatory approach.  Regulations require effective enforcement. If the people in charge of enforcing the regulations answer to elected officials who wish to maintain the favor of large industries, then it is hard for me to imagine that the regulators will take effective, punitive action against those industries when regulations are violated.  Anytime I am told that new regulations are being put in place to make sure that Wall Street / defense contractors / secret wiretappers / private health insurance companies aren't going to keep screwing us, I try to remember a recent time when said regulations actually kept them from screwing us.  And I can't remember one.

  • I certainly don't trust the latest partial statement by Democratic leaders.  Whenever there are online discussions trying to determine if the fight if going positively or negatively based on a couple of sentences by Senator Harry Reid, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, President Obama or press secretary Robert Gibbs in an interview or press conference, usually I just roll my eyes.

    These statements are invariably vague in an attempt to appeal to multiple constituencies simultaneously, to prevent contradicting oneself later on, and in order to provide negotiating "wiggle room." The frequency with which these statements are contradictory with one another (see Hoyer versus Pelosi), contradictory internally (see Harry Reid supporting a public option that isn't accountable to Congress), or simply retracted / qualified the next day doesn't help either.

    We keep looking for singular meanings in statements that are intentionally vague, manipulative, and designed to cover the ass of the person making the statement. As such, there simply is no such fixed meaning in these statements. To me, it feels like we are just being played.

The bottom line is that I will trust these players or approaches to reform only if and when they actually deliver reform that is primarily responsive to the needs of the majority of the country rather than to the wealthiest income earners, to the heads of the most powerful industries, and to the purveyors of status-quo conventional wisdom. A victory like that hasn't happened in a long, long time.

I would love for that to change, and will keep working to help it change. But it actually happens, I simply don't believe that things like Baucus-care or the current version of the ACES will actually improve the status-quo. And perhaps my sense of distrust isn't as detailed as the policy analysis of some bloggers who think the ACES of Baucus-care will actually improve the status-quo, but I freely admit I can't get past my distrust it anyway.


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Stuff I Don't Trust | 19 comments
In a way, you trust (4.00 / 1)
Republicans and the conservative Democrats the most.  Unlike the administration and many moderates and progressives, there's nothing covert about their approach to politics and policy, and in a way, that makes them the most trustworthy actors in this realm. We all know exactly what they're going to do and what they're going to say. It's only when progressives and (or?) the administration use this to their advantage (no shit Charles Grassley and Mike Enzi are not good faith negotiators, this was evident months ago, yet they are still players in the process when they should never have been) that we can have a realistic plan to move progressive legislation forward.

Hehe, interesting paradoxon! (4.00 / 1)
Yup, the expat is right: Progressives can trust rethuglicans and BlueDogs to do everything to direct more money to big business and to the upper 5%. At least something you can rely on!
:D

[ Parent ]
It won't change (4.00 / 2)
Ever.

Even if we win the battle over the Public Option and insurance reform it won't prove anything other than our tactics worked one time.

Even the people who are trying to directly appeal to you are also trying to appeal to people who you disagree with.  That will always be true.

But just because you don't trust these people doesn't mean you have to actively distrust them either.  Don't assume they are out to get you or only server their corporate masters.  Reality is messier than that.


But if the tactics work over time (0.00 / 0)
That actually cahnges the trust calculus a lot.  As of now, there isn't much evidence that progressive tactics work on any piece of legislation that matters to entrenched interests.

[ Parent ]
Trust is meaningless (4.00 / 3)
Personally, I just think politicians, like all people, respond to all the pressure points around them.  Trust is literally meaningless.

Come to think of it, this is why Obama doesn't bother me as much as he bothers many others here.  People are focussed on trust.  That makes every negative thing hurt on a personal level and every positive thing seem really important.

But that is dangerous thinking in both directions.  I suggest people think of all politicians the way they think of Arlen Specter.  Specter is more malleable than most, but the dynamic is the same.

Don't trust or distrust.  Trust is a fool's errand.  In politics, you have to think in terms of power.


[ Parent ]
I disagree. (4.00 / 1)
Trust is a force multiplier. Trust means people are willing to lend you their resources and it is an invaluable asset to have in politics.

It would be good if we had leaders we could trust, though I recognize we do not at this time. Well, not necessarily.

If the progressive block holds, it will be a huge downpayment on building trust between the insiders and outsiders of the movement. It will make it possible to do even more.

Montani semper liberi


[ Parent ]
Strong points, Chris! I guess many here share your concerns. (0.00 / 0)
Your approach, that trust has to be earned, and that it takes more than "invariably vague" announcements, but decisive action against the "status-quo institutions", totally makes sense. But of course, this understandable lack of trust in the players should lead nobodyx to believe that the fight is useless. To say it with a quote from a movie I love:

"You know, so much of the time we're just lost. We say, "Please, God, tell us what is right; tell us what is true." And there is no justice: the rich win, the poor are powerless. We become tired of hearing people lie. And after a time, we become dead... a little dead. We think of ourselves as victims... and we become victims. We become... we become weak. We doubt ourselves, we doubt our beliefs. We doubt our institutions. And we doubt the law. But today you are the law. You ARE the law."


"Trust in god, and tie up your horse" (4.00 / 2)
Trust is built, and earned. We can trust at some point true enough. And trust is not being earned true enough. It will be a long time coming for anyone.

What we need is people to be engaged enough, vote enough, remember often enough, organize enough that trust becomes  mutual. We will trust each other.

Right now we are trusted to not pay attention, to not care, to be cynical and trusted to not do what is necessary to this.

We need to build enough of an engaged citizenry that trust is a two way street.

The French electorate walks off the job. In the millions of workers, if there is talk of altering laws they don't want altered. A few words about a legislative session that will alter the job security of just teenagers, just first time workers, and the country closes down. A two way street. An engaged electorate, an engaged workforce.

In Europe, in France and Germany, they have two month summer holidays. Two months.

In north america we have added, ADDED, 200 hours of extra work to our work year, 5 weeks, since the 80's. The average worker has 8 days summer holiday.

In the richest land on earth, in the largest economy, we keep doing what we are expected to do. It does not need to be said unfortunately, that we did not get any increase in pay for this extra work.

This was before the recession.

Our biggest job is organizing.

All because we are not engaged. Organized.

Change
"We must break up the banks and never again let them get so big that they distort our politics and take down the economy.


Don't get a wrong picture of the "two month" holidays... (0.00 / 0)
this includes all official holidays like christmas, easter, labor day etc., plus the 3 to 4 weeks of paid leave (depending on job contract and seniority) every employee can allocate in coordination with his company. On the other hand, it's true, many workers really use all their holidays every single year (the days don't add up, you have to use them until March 31st next year or they expire). That's different here in Germany than in Japan, where most workers utilize only a part of their holidays.  

[ Parent ]
Oops. misleading, sry... (0.00 / 0)
That's 3 to 4 weeks of WORKDAYS, about 20 to 28 days, so it's actually 4 to 5 1/2 weeks away from work.

[ Parent ]
Viva la doubt! (0.00 / 0)
Solid explanations.  A useful mapping of your [lack of] trust across several important current actors.  

It begs the question(s):

Who or what do you trust?  Where has your trust paid off?  Based on your experience, what are the best indicators that political entities, institutions or individuals are worthy of your trust (to produce a more egalitarian society than the status quo)?

The everyday people of the whole earth are ready to run the sphere in peace.


Chris channels (the late) Andy Rooney (0.00 / 0)
Funny.

"I don't have no trust"? (0.00 / 0)
Oops, no, that's probably the wrong quote, this sounds more like Rodney Dangerfield...
:D

[ Parent ]
Andy Rooney is still alive (0.00 / 0)
90 and still kicking, last time I checked.

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton

[ Parent ]
RE:Don't get a wrong picture of the "two month" holidays. (4.00 / 3)
This is in response to Grays comment. Moved to accomodate the picture size, and page format.

Here is a picture of MINIMUM days off, by law, in the OECD. Again the rate of unionization is much much higher, people with both a union and seniority get a lot more than this. Remember this is minimum, and look at the United States, at the far end.

PDF of Harvard Law study called "No Holiday"

Conclusion
Almost all of the world's advanced economies guarantee substantial paid-leave time, with a twenty-day-per-year minimum in 18 of the 21 countries studied here. Canada and Japan, however, provide only ten days per year, and the United States is in a class of its own with respect to statutory guarantees of paid time off: it is the no-vacation nation. Requirements for paid public holidays vary more across the rich countries analyzed here. Most of the advanced economies mandate between five and 13 paid public holidays per year, but six countries have no legally required paid public holidays (Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and, again, the United States).
While incorporating paid annual leave and paid public holidays granted by employers reduces the gap between the United States and other countries somewhat, the lack of statutory provision results in substantial inequality of leave and paid public holiday provision in the United States that compounds existing disadvantage for typically less-advantaged groups including part-timers, low-wage workers, and employees in small enterprises.
The availability of paid annual leave and paid public holidays has important implications for any attempts to assess economic and social well-being, particularly when using comparative indicators such as Gross Domestic Product per person and productivity per employee, which tend to obscure large differences in work and leisure across countries.


Change
"We must break up the banks and never again let them get so big that they distort our politics and take down the economy.


Thanks for mentioning that (4.00 / 3)
NOW on PBS covered this very issue in 2007. David Brancacccio interviewing author Beth Shulman, from the show transcript [emphasis added]:
BRANCACCIO: ...What do we know about the state of time off in America?

SHULMAN: The state of time off is deplorable. It's not just vacation. Half of Americans don't get one paid sick day. We don't have paid family leave, so that if you have a newborn child, or a very sick-relative, you can't take the time, 'cause most Americans can't take it, 'cause they can't afford to-to lose a paycheck. And if their children get sick, if you don't have paid sick days, what happens is either a child stays home alone, or you lose your paycheck, or even your job.

I had a situation where I interviewed a worker, and what were they concerned about? That they-they had to go to work, because they needed the money. So, who was staying home? An older brother. Missing school to take care of a child who was sick. That's crazy. That shouldn't happen in America.

BRANCACCIO: It's a real wakeup call, if you look at a graph of different countries, industrialized countries, richer nations around the world, and how much time they have to give you by federal law for vacation and other issues that come up. What does the graph look like for America?

SHULMAN: We-we're way off the graph.

BRANCACCIO: I mean, I think it's flat right there, right?

SHULMAN: It's totally flat.

BRANCACCIO: Zero.

SHULMAN: Zero. There's no requirement whatsoever of any vacation days. There's no requirement whatsoever on any kind of sick days.

We talk about being a family friendly nation, but we're not giving people time to be with their families.
When someone's working two or three jobs, they don't have time to be with their family. If we don't allow people vacation, they don't have time to spend with their family.

BRANCACCIO: Just reading The Economist magazine, and there was an article about Germany. Germany, often criticized by many economists for having the big social welfare system. Look at these crazy pensions they give people. Big social safety net that's not sustainable. They're gonna lose jobs. Yet, currently, German economy is actually doing pretty darn well.

SHULMAN: Absolutely. It's got nothing to do with competitiveness. The most competitive countries actually have a very broad social safety net. They provide healthcare. They provide good retirement. They provide time off and good vacations. We're the ones who haven't caught up with the realities of what Americans need to be productive, and to be good family members, and-and take part in our society in a real way.



[ Parent ]
Important point! Paid sick leave may even be more urgent. (4.00 / 3)
I mean, you can have a reasonable discussion about how many holidays are appropriate. But how can there be any arguments against it being unfair and unethical to leave sick people without income, literally adding insult to injury???

[ Parent ]
Interesting stuff. (0.00 / 0)
I agree with most of it.

What tool would you prefer to use instead of regulation? Also, note that "industry would like to screw us over but can't because of regulations" isn't something that tends to make headlines. How would you know?

And I dunno about people like Summers and Geithner. On the one hand, people on the left regularly like to attack them for being cozy with Wall Street or whatever; on the other hand, I have read from a number of people -- many of them themselves economists, some of whom do actually get a lot of respect on the left -- that they really are amazingly brilliant. And I mean, "brilliant" and "progressive" are admittedly more or less orthogonal. But isn't the former also important? (just as / more so / not as much?) Isn't it possible that the more "progressive" policy -- where "progressive" is defined as what groups and individuals who identify themselves as progressive support -- is sometimes actually the worse policy?


I could not have said it better. (4.00 / 1)
Every Democratic Senator & House member who worked to defeat the public option must be voted out of office. Even if we somehow pull out a public option, something that will only happen if President Obama goes to bat for the public option tonight, these Congress people have demonstrated beyond a doubt who they work for. It is not us, the citizens of the USA. They work for corporate interests and the top 5%, as such they should be opposed at every opportunity. Democratic Party member or not we need Congress people who work in our interest. All of the Republicrats must go.

   


Stuff I Don't Trust | 19 comments
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