Senator Max Baucus's draft of health care legislation appears to be set for release tomorrow night. The Senate Finance Committee is scheduled to start the "mark-up" process--debate and amendments--on September 23rd. Or, at least that is the latest deadline Baucus is floating:
Baucus (D-Mont.) told the Wall Street Journal that the bill, expected to cost $880 billion over the next decade, is "on track" for debate by the committee starting Sept. 23.
There are going to be a lot of amendments offered by both Democrats and Republicans during the mark-up process. Many of these amendments will be attempts by Democrats on the Finance Committee to improve the bill. Baucus doesn't think they will pass:
Based on the comments by several committee Democrats after a meeting Monday evening, that mark up could be a lengthy one.
Baucus acknowledged that the mark-up could prove a busy one but predicted that Democrats would support the package he plans to unveil Wednesday without major changes.
"I don't see any deal-breaker amendments," Baucus said. "Put it this way: It's unlikely that any amendments, which basically change the framework, will be accepted."
If there is an amendment to include a public option in the bill, it will go a long way toward clarifying the Senate whip count picture. Five of the Democrats who have been the most difficult to pin down on the public option--Max Baucus, Kent Conrad, Tom Carper, Blanche Lincoln and Bill Nelson--are on the Finance Committee. Another Democrat, Ron Wyden, has expressed that he is open to a public option, but has not firmly committed.
These six Democrats represent nearly half of the remaining "maybe" votes in the Senate on the public option. As such, a committee vote on a public option will go a long way toward clearing up the whip count picture on the public option in the Senate. Even an amendment on the public option that doesn't pass could net us three or four new "yes" votes. Since we are currently at 44, that would push us to the brink of 50 and proof that a public option could pass the Senate under reconciliation / after cloture / via the nuclear option or any other procedural move to get an up or down vote.
No Democratic Senator is going to get out of this one without voting on the public option. Even before the floor vote, a whole bunch of fence-sitters are going to have to tell us which side they are on next week.
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