Senate Forecast, September 17th

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Sep 17, 2009 at 13:30


A wave of new polling over the last week has prompted an update in the Senate forecast. The overall seat change prediction remains the same, with Republicans netting 2-3 seats resulting in a Democratic caucus majority of either 58-42 or 57-43. The two category changes are Arkansas moving from "toss-up" to "lean Dem," and Colorado moving from "lean Dem" to "toss-up."

The recruiting phase of the 2010 elections is nearly over. With the exception of the two special elections (Massachussetts and Texas), the remaining holdout on the recuriting front is Delaware. In the first state, much still hinges on whether Beau Biden and / or Mike Castle ends up running, the major candidates. the latst indications seem to be that Beau Biden is, in fact, running.

Primaries are the next stage in the Senate picture. Here are the best case scenarios for each party:

Democrats: In Delaware, Biden runs, Castle does not; Paul is the Republican nominee in Kentucky; Norton is not the Republican nominee in Colorado, Crist is not the Republican nominee in Florida; Hendren is the Republican nominee in Arkansas. This would result in a forecast where Democrats net 0-1 seats.

Republicans: In Delaware, Castle runs; Grayson is the Republican nominee in Kentucky; Norton is the Republican nominee in Colorado; Crist is the Republican nominee in Florida; Baker or Coleman is the Republican nominee in Arkansas. This would result in a forecast where Republicans net 3-4 seats.

Of course, beyond primaries, much still depends on the overall political environment. If a good health care bill passes and a real economic turnaround are on the way by the spring or summer, then Democrats could very well net seats no matter the outcome of primaries. However, it is possible that everything could go wrong for Democrats in terms of primaries, recruiting and the political environment, thus resulting in a Republican net gain of 6-7 seats.

Current 2010 Senate Outlook: Net Republican Gain of 2-3 Seats
Republican-Held Seats
Democratic Pickups: 2 (Missouri and Ohio)
State Type Democrat Republican Margin #Polls
Ohio
OH Primary Fisher +7.0 2
OH Open Fisher Portman* D 9.0 3
OH Open Brunner Portman* D 5.7 3
Missouri
MO Open Carnahan Blunt* D 4.3 3
New Hampshire
NH Open Hodes* Ayotte R 3.8 4
Kentucky
KY Primary Mongiardo +7.5 2
KY Primary Grayson +13.0 2
KY Open Mongiardo Grayson R 5.0 2
KY Open Mongiardo Paul D 3.5 2
KY Open Conway Grayson R 6.5 2
KY Open Conway Paul D 4.5 2
Louisiana
LA Incumbent Melancon Vitter R 9.5 2
North Carolina
NC Incumbent Marshall Burr R +10.5 2
Texas
TX Special None yet None yet None yet 1
Keep an eye on Florida as well, if Republican Governor Charlie Crist faces trouble in his primary against Marco Rubio.

Democratic-Held Seats
Democratic Losses: 4-5 (Connecticut, Delaware and Nevada, plus one or two of Colorado, Illinois and Pennsylvania)
State Type Democrat Republican Margin #Polls
Delaware
DE Special Biden** Castle** R 14.5 2
Nevada
NV Incumbent Reid Tarkanian R 7.3 3
NV Incumbent Reid Lowden R 6.0 4
Connecticut
CT Incumbent Dodd* Simmons* R 6.3 3
Pennsylvania
PA Primary Sestak Specter R +21.5 4
PA Incumbent Specter Toomey D 0.5 4
PA Open Sestak Toomey R 3.8 4
Illinois
IL Special Giannoulis*** Kirk* R 1.5 2
Colorado
CO Special Bennet Norton R 9.0 1
CO Special Romanoff Norton R 8.0 1
CO Special Bennet Frazier D 2.0 2
CO Special Bennet Buck D 5.0 2
Arkansas
AR Incumbent Lincoln Baker D 2.5 2
AR Incumbent Lincoln Coleman D 3.5 2
AR Incumbent Lincoln Hendren D 19.0 1
California
CA Incumbent Boxer Fiorina* D 12.5 2
Mass.
MA Special None yet None yet None yet 1
Russ Feingold's seat in Wisconsin, and Patty Murray's in Washington, are two other campaigns to watch.)

Notes:
*= Faces primary, but heavy favorite
**= Not an announced candidate at this time
***= Faces serious primary challenges, but only candidate for which general election polling is available.

The forecast is based entirely on polling.  
Chris Bowers :: Senate Forecast, September 17th

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Senate Forecast, September 17th | 7 comments
Hopefully this will improve dramatically... (4.00 / 3)
All depends on the state of the economy, really... maybe health reform too, in the sense that if something crappy passes then a lot of progressives will probably vote and do little else (ie, donate, organize, etc).
Yes, it's the economy again... (0.00 / 0)
And health care as well. Heck, I'll even add the climate bill, as states like mine will really benefit from the "green collar jobs". If Dems deliver on climate & health care, and as long as the economy improves, I think we'll probably see a neutral year at worst next year. But again, it all depends on whether Dems deliver on those promises...

Want to save marriage equality in Maine? Ask me how! ;-)
[ Parent ]
the PPP polls are very interesting (4.00 / 1)
because they tell us how the 2009 likely voters actually voted in 2008. According to PPP, we are facing an electorate where McCain blew out Obama in Virginia and nearly tied in New Jersey.  I think other pollsters have similar results in their likely voter models, because PPP is not that different in their matchup polling.

The good news is it's quite possible more voters will show up -- if not in 2009, then 2010 -- which will be good news.  Any poll that has a likely voter screen right now seems like a worst case scenario.



New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

My thoughts so far... (4.00 / 1)
First off, polling doesn't tell the whole story. I'll say so, especially since I'm here in Nevada. Sure, Harry Reid won't have it easy next year, but he never really does anyway. Even uber-political-reporter Jon Ralston says Harry Reid has 1.2-1 odds in his favor next year, so it all really depends on whether he delivers on his and Obama's promises on health care and climate change/energy. (See my above comment.) As long as he does (and I think he's now realizing he needs to), he'll make it.

Same goes for Chris Dodd. He's the latest victim of the GOP smear machine, and unfortunately Obama deflected all the blame of TARP onto Dodd since he didn't want to hold the bag for making TARP more bank-executive-friendly. But again, if he succeeds at getting health care done right, I think he'll be fine next year as well. My state of Nevada is becoming increasingly Democratic (Obama won by 12.5% and Dems have about an 8% registration advantage), but Connecticut is even MORE Democratic (Obama won by 22%), so the GOP shouldn't count on a win in CT just yet.

And as for the rest: Illinois is another Deep Blue state, so I'm not too worried there. Pennsylvania will be a roller-coaster ride all around. Delaware looks scary, but we don't have enough information yet.

The two states that really concern me right now are Arkansas and Colorado. Arkansas really is shifting away from Democrats. And as conservative as Blanche Lincoln has become, Republicans will continue to attack her for "being too liberal". And here, it might just work.

Colorado did seem to be swinging our way, but the Senate race seems to confirm that it's still a swing state that can go either way. Hopefully, whoever makes it out of the primary will be able to take on the GOP full throttle and count on a strong Democratic GOTV machine.

Want to save marriage equality in Maine? Ask me how! ;-)

Some of this polling is (0.00 / 0)
ancient.  The Missouri last poll was taken in April, which was years ago in political terms.  My guess is Carnahan is up no better that up 5.

I did see an Elway Poll from Washington showing Murray's favorability was 54, but her re-elect number was only 44-33.  I don't think she will lose, but I would keep an eye on it.  It is precisely the sort of seat that will be hard to hold if the economy does not recover.

Right now if I had to guess we would lose 7 seats.  Fortunately the election is not tomorrow.

Why Write This? It is not relevant. (0.00 / 0)
To make predictions totally on polling now is meaningless.  Does anyone think that Obama is going to sit still and let Kirk win in Illinois, his home state?  

And in a number of states, including Colorado, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and Illinois, we do not know the nominees from one or even both parties.  To give just one example, the grassroots base will feel much different levels of enthusiasm if Sestak knocks off Spector vs. if Spector prevails in the primary.  

Finally, we are in the middle of a very muddled fight about healthcare.  The outcome of that fight is going to have a huge impact on the outlook for next year.  If the Democrats actually pull it together and pass a decent healthcare bill, every candidate you mention will gain a lot.  If, on the other hand, no bill passes, the Republicans will likely do even better than the polls suggest now.  

Someone needs to do Illinois again (0.00 / 0)
I highly doubt that IL will go Republican.

I also think it's ridiculous how well Pat Toomey is doing - since when did he become Mr. Popular in PA?

Senate Forecast, September 17th | 7 comments
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