Just in case we hadn't been reminded enough, anonymous centrist Democrats let us know that Rahm Emanuel won the House in 2006, and everything was better when he was around to protect Blue Dogs:
Many centrists credit Rahm Emanuel, now White House chief of staff, then a congressman from Illinois and a member of leadership, for pushing Pelosi to protect vulnerable members. As the former head of the House Democrats' campaign arm, Emanuel had recruited many of them to run in the 2006 election that gave Democrats the majority.
"Rahm could say, 'Nance, I'm the guy who delivered the House.' He had a special ability to talk to her," said a senior Democratic aide.
The idea that Rahm Emanuel, or any other single Democrat, was responsible for Democratic victories in 2006 is preposterous. In 2006, Democrats scored huge picked not only in the House, but also in the Senate, among Governors, and at the state legislature level. Rahm had nothing to do with those elections, all of which went as well, or better, than the House in 2006. It was a national wave, fueled by a horrendous national environment for Republicans. Katrina,. Bush's sub-40% approval ratings throughout 2006, an unpopular war overseas, and a series of corruption scandals (Tom Delay, Mark Foley) put Democrats in a dominant electoral position across the board.
The idea of a singular genius causing historical change through force of will makes for an easy media narrative. It also fits in nicely with simplistic "great man" conceptualizations of history. The truth is, however, that individual campaign operatives often receive way too much credit for their party or candidate's victory in a national election. The overall political environment--shaped by forces far larger than any one campaign or operative--frequently plays the decisive role. In addition to Rahm Emanuel, consider the following:
- Karl Rove's "genius" in 2004 for helping Bush win re-election by 2.5%, even though House Republicans won nationally by 2.6%.
- The genius of the 2008 Obama team in winning nationally by 7.27%, even though House Democrats won nationally by 8.88%.
I am not arguing that people like Karl Rove, Rahm Emanuel or David Ploufe are ineffectual political operatives. Certainly, they are a lot better at running a national campaign than I am, and none of the squandered the opportunities they were given. However, it does not appear that these three were any better than the operatives leading the other national campaigns for their respective parties in 2004, 2006 or 2008. Republicans across the country did just as well, or better, than Rove in 2004, while Democrats around the country did just as well, or better, than Emanuel in 2006 or Ploufe in 2008.
Even beyond political environments and campaign managers, hundreds of thousands of activists contribute to any national electoral victory. Those are the grassroots activists who need to start receiving more credit, not party leaders. No national electoral victory can be won without massive support from the grassroots.
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