Tomorrow is a big day in the fight for a public option, as the Senate Finance Committee will vote on adding a public option to the Baucus bill:
The public option is headed for a vote in the Senate Finance Committee on Friday.
Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.) lamented on a conference call Thursday evening that the debate Friday would be the first time that the committee, since it began negotiating health care reform months ago, would be debating the public option.
There are two public option amendments on the table. One, proposed by Senator Rockefeller, is very similar to the "robust public option" pushed by House Progressives:
Rockefeller #C7 (Amendment 187)--establishes a public option that is tied to Medicare plus 5% rates with the ability to negotiate drug prices, and has an "opt-out" provider network. self-insured market effective in 2013
Should this amendment fail, 80 amendments down the road, Senator Cantwell has proposed adding the weaker, but still extent, Senate HELP public option:
4. Schumer-Cantwell #C2 (Amendment 267)--Public option as passed by HELP Committee
No guarantee they will get to that one tomorrow, so we might be waiting until Monday or Tuesday.
All 10 Republicans on the Finance Committee, including Olympia Snowe, are expected to vote against both public option amendments. Eight Democrats are highly likely to be yes votes: Bingaman (NM), Cantwell (WA), Kerry (MA), Menendez (NJ), Schumer (NY), Stabenow (MI), Rockefeller (WV), and Wyden (OR). It took a lot of organizing to even get that far, given the reluctance of Bingaman, Cantwell, Kerry and Wyden at times.
The other five members of the committee are difficult to predict, given that they have been all over the map on the public option this year. To pass a public option through the committee, four of the following five will need to vote in favor:
- Baucus (MT). Should be a yes given his stated and past support for the public option. However, he could be a no to defend the draft of the bill he released, and out of a continuing belief that the public option can't pass the Senate.
- Carper (DE): Has said that he opposes a non-trigger public option. I expect him to vote that way, even though he is from a pretty blue state.
- Conrad (ND): Has assiduously avoided taking a position on the public option, instead stating over and over again that there are not 60 votes for it. Well, now we finally will learn if Conrad was just talking about himself all along. As chairman of the Budget committee that will merge the Senate Finance and HELP bills, how Conrad votes will be huge. I am suspicious Conrad might vote "yes" to save face and seem like a good-faith negotiator on the co-op.
- Lincoln (AR): Blanche Lincoln appears to have recently flipped from supporting the public option to opposing it. She really has been all over the map during this entire debate. I think about the best we can hope for is that she votes yes on the public option in committee, and yes on the cloture vote, but then no on the floor vote.
- Nelson (FL): Perhaps more silent on the public option than any member of the Senate. He has, however, called public option supporters idiots, and said that he believes a public option can't pass. I am not confident on this vote.
My bet is that these five split 3-2 one way or the other. In both cases, it means the public option won't pass the committee, but will have at least one more vote in the overall public option whip count. |
