The best and most robust public option is the one submitted by Senator Rockefeller. It resembles the robust public option originally proposed in the House. It would pay Medicare rates plus 5% for the first three years. Medicare providers would automatically participate in the public option unless they choose to opt out. There is no penalty for providers opting out of Rockefeller's public option.
The second public option is the one submitted by Senator Schumer and Senator Cantwell. It would add to the Senate Finance Committee's bill the same public option that passed in Senate HELP Committee. The public option in the Senate HELP Committee's bill is called the "Community Health Insurance Option." This public option does not pay modified Medicare rates but its rates "shall not be higher than the average of all Gateway reimbursement rates."
The final and weakest public option amendment was also submitted by Schumer. It would be his national "level playing field" public option. The government would only provide start up funds to help create a new public option that must follow all the same rules as private insurance companies. Like any private insurance company it would need to negotiate rates and create it's own provider network from scratch.
There are 23 members of the Senate Finance committee, 13 Democrats and 10 Republicans (it really should be 14 to 9, given the overall ratio of the Senate). Here is how our internal whip count at Open Left projects the votes:
11 Opposed to All Amendments: All ten Republicans, including Olympia Snowe, are expected to vote against all amendments. Additionally, Democrat Tom Carper of Delaware is projected to vote against all three amendments, due to his statement that he opposes all non-trigger public options.
9 Favor All Amendments. Due to their previous statements, Senators Bingaman (NM), Cantwell (WA), Kerry (MA), Menendez (NJ), Schumer (NY), Stabenow (MI), Rockefeller (WV), and Wyden (OR) are expected to favor all three amendments. Additionally, despite working against a public option and not including one in his bill, Senator Baucus (MT) is expected to favor all three amendments. This is because he has previously stated that he wants a public option, and that he supports one tied to Medicare rates. I will take him at his word until he votes otherwise.
Conrad, Lincoln and Bill Nelson. The remaining three Finance Committee members--Kent Conrad (ND), Blanche Lincoln (AR), and Bill Nelson (FL)--are all projected to vote against the Rockefeller amendment for a public option tied to Medicare rates. Conrad explicitly stated his opposition yesterday. After months of truculence and waffling, Lincoln and Nelson are not going to vote in favor of an amendment for a stronger public option than the one approved by the Senate Help Committee So, expect a 14-9 defeat on the Rockefeller amendment.
There are not many reasons to be optimistic about getting votes from any of these three Senators when it comes to the other two public option amendments, either. From my days as a union organizer, I believe that unless someone has explicitly told you they will vote your way by the day of the election, then you should assume they are voting against you. Neither Nelson nor Conrad have ever made a statement in favor of any sort of public option, and Lincoln has recently weakened her already weak support of the public option.
Still they have not entirely closed the door. For one thing, they might vote in favor of Ted Kennedy's public option out of respect. For another, these Senators are moderates for the sake of moderate, and so one or more might vote in favor of the weakest public option amendment after voting in against of the first two. I am feeling optimistic this morning, so I project that the second and third public option amendments receive at least 10 votes each.
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